[Epoch Times September 25, 2021]”Taiwan, you are in extreme danger!” The former Pentagon official who planned the defense strategy for the Trump administration issued a warning to Taiwan in this way.
The gray zone means the CCP oppresses Taiwan’s reunification
According to a report by the Voice of America, the CCP has used what is known as a “gray zone” against Taiwan in recent years to exert military, diplomatic, economic, and political pressure before war or conflict in an attempt to force the people of Taiwan with maximum pressure. Accept and unify.
In March of this year, Adm. Philip Davidson, then commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned at a congressional hearing that the CCP might take military actions against Taiwan in the next six years. This clear timeline triggered a lot of The shock also deepened the sense of urgency for possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
On September 23, 24 Chinese military aircraft again invaded the air defense identification zone in southwestern Taiwan. Only one day ago, Taiwan formally applied to join the “Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” (CPTPP). The Chinese Communist government said that Taiwan is a part of China (the Communist Party), and China “resolutely opposes” Taiwan’s participation in any official agreement or organization.
Elbridge Colby, the lead author of the Trump Administration’s 2018 National Defense Strategy Report, believes that this approach of the CCP poses great challenges to US-Taiwan security cooperation, because Taiwanese will not be willing to give up on themselves. No matter how many gray-belt methods the CCP uses against Taiwan, it will not succeed. Because of this, the CCP will use “direct military power” to achieve its political goals. Both the U.S. and Taiwan must be prepared for this.
In his new book “Strategy of Denial” (Strategy of Denial), Colby presents his views on how the United States can prepare for this possibility. He believes that after withdrawing from Afghanistan, Washington should “focus on Asia like a laser”, establish a loosely organized “alliance” to counter the CCP’s hegemonic expansion in the region, and prevent the CCP from crossing the Western Pacific with Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines as the forefront. The first island chain.
Colby, who served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Strategy and Military Development of the U.S. Department of Defense from 2017 to 2018, gave a more detailed description of what he thought was “the most dangerous” in a discussion on Taiwan’s security and defense at the annual meeting of the Global Taiwan Studies Center last week. The hypothetical situation is that the CCP uses blockade and bombardment to invade Taiwan, capture and gain control of Taiwan in the fastest way, so that the United States does not have time to intervene, and then after creating a “fait accompli”, it can force the United States and Japan. And Australia and other countries accept this irreversible new reality.
The cost of fighting for Taiwan is too high
Although a poll released by the Chicago Council of Global Affairs not long ago stated that if the CCP invades Taiwan, more than half of Americans agree to send troops to defend Taiwan. However, Colby said that the reality is that once that happens, the president of the United States will Leadership and certain other factors are the real key, because what he sees from informal surveys is that most Americans are not interested in “fighting for Taiwan.”
“What I want to emphasize here, especially for our Taiwanese friends, is,’You are in extreme danger!’ This danger not only comes from China (the Communist Party), but it is also possible that ultimately the American people will decide that the cost and risk are too great. high.”
Colby said that he heard these words from very serious friends in Taiwan, so he thinks that it is best for the United States and Taiwan to confess to each other. For Taiwan, the most important thing is to increase defense spending, and to Used in the right armaments, so he was encouraged by President Tsai Ing-wen’s recent announcement of increasing defense investment and using it in the right direction, because in the past he had faced Taiwan’s purchase requirements that were deemed unsuitable for Taiwan’s real defense needs. Turns the issue of weapons procurement into a “toxic” discussion.
Colby also disagrees with some people’s belief that the United States should not tell Taiwan what weapons to buy.
“Some people say that we should not tell our allies what to buy. I totally disagree with that statement, because American soldiers, sailors, pilots, maritime police and marines will risk their lives, and civilians will be included. , So we absolutely have the right to urge, and in fact we also have the responsibility to urge you to shape your army according to an overall strategy that is in our common interest.”
Taiwan needs to do more
In the closing keynote speech of the aforementioned annual meeting, former White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien also called on Taiwan to increase investment in self-defense and not just rely on the United States.
He said that Taiwan is facing a “very bad crisis” and Taipei must do more to deal with White House decision makers, such as the current National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, when considering how the United States can ensure that Taiwan continues to retain democracy and freedom. More convincing.
O’Brien said: “Taiwan must defend Taiwan and cannot rely solely on the United States. We had this problem before. Some European countries and NATO did not make appropriate investments in their defense, allowing themselves to be invaded, bullied or coerced by Russia. Taiwan really must start to take some steps in this area. President Tsai Ing-wen is doing some things in this area. This is commendable. Defense spending has increased. We also have some good platforms there, but Taiwan must also Do more.”
Bernard Cole, a retired professor of maritime strategy at the US National Military Academy, also believes that Taiwan has not yet made the best preparations for its own defense, but this is important for the US president to decide whether to intervene in the Taiwan Strait conflict. consider.
Cole recently published an article in the “Global Taiwan Bulletin” calling on Taiwan to accelerate urgently needed military reforms. He said, “Any US president will find it difficult to stand by when facing China’s armed attack on Taiwan, but whether or not to intervene military for Taiwan will almost certainly only decide to do so when Taiwan has made the best preparations for defending its own territory. But this situation is not yet visible.”
The Taiwan military only ended this year’s five-day “Hankuang Exercise” last week. The training subjects focused on asymmetric operations, such as training fighter planes to take off and landing on highways as a combat runway, and the Navy’s deployment of mobile anti-ship missiles and anti-ship missiles. Landing operations.
The Taiwan government recently proposed a national defense budget of NT$471.7 billion (approximately US$16.89 billion) for next year, which is higher than this year’s NT$453.4 billion. It also increased its special budget for precision missiles and shipborne weapon systems.
Editor in charge: Zhong Yuan#
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