[Epoch Times, March 26, 2022](Epoch Times reporter Xia Yu comprehensive report) On Friday (March 25), the commander of the Russian army said that the Russian army will concentrate its main war effort on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. . As Russia’s war against Ukraine enters a new phase, there are four things to watch.
Four weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war is deadlocked and the Russian military has failed to achieve President Vladimir Putin’s desired goal of overthrowing Zelensky’s government and creating a pro-Moscow puppet regime.
On Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its “special military operations” — one covering the entire Ukraine and one focusing on the Donbass.
The BBC reported that comments published by Russia’s state news agency suggested Russia may be lowering its war goals. Russian troops are facing strong resistance in northern Ukraine and around Kyiv.
Unable to defeat the Ukrainian army, Russia is now ramping up bombing of Ukrainian cities in an attempt to force Ukraine to surrender. But the determination of the Ukrainian people to resist Russia has not diminished, and every bombing will make the Ukrainians more determined to resist.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said that the Russian military operations will continue until the Russian troops complete their established tasks, the ministry did not specify what kind of tasks.
Here are four things to watch as the Russian-Ukrainian war enters its next phase.
ukrainian army
Seven million people in Ukraine are eligible for military service, and the government is seeking to mobilize them to defend the country. Ukraine can recruit more military personnel than Russia because Ukraine is in a life-or-death battle, and at the same time, Ukraine can receive almost unlimited financial support from the EU and the United States, as well as a large amount of military equipment.
By mid-April, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will be trained enough to qualify as infantry, allowing Ukraine to cover losses and increase the size of many military units. This would give Ukraine the option to increase the counterattack, but only if Ukraine can tolerate the possible greater losses.
Russia’s choice
Before the fields dry up in late May or early June, Russia will have only one viable option: bomb Ukrainian cities. To do this, Russia needs to secure supply lines — the range of its rocket launchers and artillery — within 10 to 20 miles of the city center. It needs to protect them from increasingly effective Ukrainian drone attacks.
The challenge facing Russia is more serious than the Russian bombing of Ukraine. Poor repairs by the Russians have cost them the trucks they need to transport thousands of tons of artillery ammunition to the front lines.
Russian forces around the Ukrainian capital Kyiv are now on the defensive and have stopped “any interest in ground operations” in Kiev, a senior U.S. defense official said, but airstrikes and long-range strikes continued.
A senior U.S. defense official said the Russian military was moving its troops in Georgia to Ukraine as reinforcements, CNN reported.
Russian troops have been stationed there since the 2008 invasion of Georgia. Georgia is located on the southwestern border of Russia.
Belarus
Belarus recalled its ambassador to Ukraine a few days ago and signaled a possible intention to send troops to help Russia.
There are three problems with doing so, Fox News reported. First of all, the Belarusian army is not very good, its main task is to persuade its citizens not to overthrow the strongman president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko.
Second, the border between Belarus and Ukraine is the vast Pripyat Marsh, one of the largest in the world, making military operations southward difficult.
Third, if Lukashenko does send a significant portion of his troops against Ukraine, he risks civil unrest that threatens his own regime and, in turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin. This risk outweighs any expected benefits on the battlefield.
Beijing’s attitude
Putin has sought help from Beijing, U.S. officials have previously said. The areas Russia needs most are precision-guided munitions supplies and new trucks.
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday (March 24) that he had ensured that Xi Jinping understood the consequences of assisting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and that Beijing understood that China’s economic future will be more closely linked to the West than to Russia.
Earlier, White House national security adviser Sullivan repeatedly said that Beijing’s aid to Russia will face consequences.
The United States and its allies need to make it clear to Beijing that seeing Chinese-made equipment in Ukraine will trigger major sanctions on the Chinese economy, Fox News reported. The West cannot let Beijing rescue Moscow from the Kyiv quagmire. The last thing the free world needs is an alliance of authoritarian states.
Responsible editor: Ye Ziwei