Hong Kong’s epidemic control eases: ‘stressed’ SAR government announces resumption of customs clearance with the world – BBC News

According to Li Jiachao’s announcement, after the quarantine measures are relaxed from 06:00 Hong Kong time on September 26 (22:00 GMT on 25th), the current “3+4” – accepting three days from the day a foreign country or Taiwan enters Hong Kong Isolation and quarantine in hotels, and self-medical monitoring for the next four days – will be changed to “0+3”, but within these three days, designated places such as restaurants and bars will remain prohibited.

When the Hong Kong business community and the medical community recently discussed how the society should return to normal from the anti-epidemic state, the mainstream voice was to implement “0+7” first. The official announcement is now four days away.

Secondly, it is no longer necessary to submit a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 48 hours before boarding the flight to Hong Kong. Instead, the negative result of the rapid antigen test within 24 hours before boarding is replaced. At the same time, Hong Kong residents who have not completed the vaccination can also board the plane and return to Hong Kong, but they must complete the vaccination according to law after arriving in Hong Kong to obtain the “vaccine pass” required for daily travel.

The “Return to Hong Kong” mechanism for Hong Kong residents to return to Hong Kong from mainland China without quarantine and the “Easy to Hong Kong” mechanism for non-Hong Kong residents to enter Hong Kong without inspection will also become unlimited from the 26th, and the scope of application will be extended to the mainland. All provinces and municipalities and the Macao SAR.

In addition, with the implementation of “0+3”, although inbound residents and passengers at the airport still need to undergo nucleic acid testing, they no longer need to “test and wait” at the airport, but “test and release” after receiving sampling, and can freely choose Transportation leaves the airport.

Dr. Ruan Yingxian, a lecturer at the School of Economics and Business Administration of the University of Hong Kong, said: “Everyone will take it first (first put away), but it can be better.”

When Dr. Ruan Yingxian commented on the new measures to the BBC Chinese, she first pointed out: “You know that air tickets to Tokyo are expensive. Then if I go to travel, I will worry about whether I will be quarantined if I am recruited (diagnosed). Woolen cloth?”

She said this because of what happened across East Asia in the roughly 24 hours before the Hong Kong government announced its easing of measures.

On the morning of the 22nd, Taiwan announced that it will implement the entry “0+7” as soon as October 13th. Executive President Su Zhenchang said that the border will be unblocked in stages before that.

Later on the same day, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who was attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York, announced that Japan would lift the cap on the number of people entering Japan on October 11 and open the entry of independent and short-term visa-free travelers.

On the morning of the 26th, South Korea, which had withdrawn entry quarantine measures as early as the beginning of September, announced that it would lift the order to wear masks outdoors on the 26th, and only continue to mandate the wearing of masks indoors.

By the way, although the Macau SAR of China is still implementing the “7+3” measures that are stricter than Hong Kong and consistent with mainland China, Air Macau, which is mainly owned by the state-owned Air China and the Macau SAR government, announced that it will start from October 2018. From the 12th, the route between Hanoi, Vietnam and Tokyo, Japan will be resumed, and it is planned to resume the route to and from Taipei in November. Liang Yihao, director of the Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Division of the Macao SAR Health Bureau, said that the authorities are collecting data from different places to further study and judge the feasibility of reducing the isolation and medical observation.

According to data released by Ctrip.com Hong Kong branch (Trip.com Hong Kong), between 00:00 and 15:45 Hong Kong time on the 23rd, the number of flight visitors “increased 120 times” compared with last week; the top five outbound destinations followed Tokyo, Japan, Bangkok, Thailand, Osaka, Japan, Seoul, South Korea and Singapore. Among them, Tokyo air ticket orders increased by 650% year-on-year compared with last week.

As for the timing of the SAR government’s announcement of the new measures, Dr. Ruan Yingxian said: “From the perspective of regional competition, you have already said it, it is best for me to say it immediately, otherwise it will be very disadvantageous in terms of information dissemination… If it is announced, these three companies will all be If you don’t say it, you will be forgotten.”

Ruan Yingxian believes that the current decision of the SAR government is still related to the “dynamic clearing” policy adhered to by mainland China. At this stage, the control is reduced, but it is reserved. For example, the continuous implementation of “safe travel” places scan code tracking, etc., can avoid the mainland. scolded the Hong Kong government for “laying down”.

Chief Executive Li Jiachao said at a press conference on the 23rd: “I reiterate the SAR government’s anti-epidemic policy, including: first, do not lie down, control the number of confirmed cases, and ensure the capacity of the medical system; second, reduce severe illness and reduce deaths. and thirdly, to protect those at high risk, including the ‘old and the young’ and those with chronic illnesses.”

“Fourth, use scientific and accurate methods to identify people with different risk levels, reduce the number of people under control and the scope of control, and allow the maximum number of people involved in daily activities; fifth, balance risks and economic motivation, and maintain people’s livelihood under the condition that risks are controllable activities and Hong Kong’s competitiveness, and try to give the society maximum momentum and economic vitality.”

Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at S&P Global Ratings, told the BBC that the lifting of the hotel quarantine policy in Hong Kong has been long-awaited. This will provide an important stimulus to Hong Kong’s economy, as well as Hong Kong’s ability to maintain its status as an international financial hub.

“Even if mainland China maintains its stance against Covid-19 largely unchanged, Hong Kong can still take a step forward and help strengthen the ‘two systems’ of ‘one country, two systems’. The city will be able to play its role in the future, including in Under the initiative of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.”

Professor Lu Chongmao, Director of Medical and Health, who announced the new entry quarantine measures for Hong Kong together with Li Jiachao, explained the government’s decision, saying: “We look back at the outbreak of Omicron this year. From February to March this year, confirmed cases were The number of cases has increased to more than tens of thousands, and many people have died. In early May, after the epidemic fell to a low three-digit number, there are signs of recovery. Although the number of positive cases in mid-July had remained stable, in mid-August Climb again.”

“Recently, the cases seem to have reached the peak, and there are signs of a decline. Looking back at the rebound from July to September, through the joint efforts of the government and citizens, many precise epidemic prevention measures have been taken. Although the epidemic has brought us There has been a certain impact, but it has always been under control. The number of confirmed cases peaked at 10,000, and now it has begun to fall.”

It was only a week ago that Lu Chongmao and Leung Pak-yin, the former chief executive of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, had a heated debate over an anonymous definition of the current epidemic mortality rate, which became the focus of local public opinion.

Liang Baixian pointed out that the death rate of the new crown since May is similar to that of the flu, and he questioned that “some people are still dragging their feet back to normal.” Lu Chongmao refuted that the death rate of the new crown since the end of last year is six times that of the flu, saying that “people who eat peanuts can talk easily (people who eat melon can talk easily).” He also criticized that the death rate of the new crown is not much different from the flu. is “serious selection bias”.

When pressed on September 17 when the control would be relaxed, Lu Chongmao said: “This year, in 2022, more than 9,000 people have died from the new crown virus disease so far. We can’t just look at the past three months.”

The unnamed exchange of fire with Liang Baixian caused Lu Chongmao to be described by the Hong Kong media as engaging in a “wolf warrior-style anti-epidemic”.

Hong Kong current affairs commentator Liu Ruishuo commented to the BBC in Chinese that the SAR government has always been pulled by many aspects in its epidemic prevention decision-making, including the Hong Kong government’s refusal to arbitrarily “reduce spicy food” in the face of China’s “dynamic clearing”, and Singapore continues to be in a closed state in Hong Kong “Lie down and win”, and the local business community, which is dominated by the pro-establishment system, is putting pressure on the Hong Kong government for fear of “perishing together”.

Liu Ruishao said: “The pressure must be there, and it’s not just now, it’s been there for a long time… Because of the economic downturn in Hong Kong, neighboring regions have taken away a lot of Hong Kong’s advantages.”

Also in the days before the Hong Kong government announced the relaxation of the entry quarantine policy, bad news came one after another.

Among them, the International Dragon Boat Federation recently passed the 2023 World Dragon Boat Championships from Hong Kong to Thailand, and the Hong Kong Athletics Federation announced the cancellation of the 2022 Hong Kong Standard Chartered Marathon – although it was later announced that it would be held in February 2023 – and Singapore Standard Chartered After the marathon was announced to take place in December, the business community was concerned that international events would be leaving Hong Kong one after the other.

And the pressure from the business community is no longer limited to international events: on September 21, Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said that China’s “zero” policy had “destroyed” Hong Kong’s international Aviation hub status; Hong Kong newspapers said that an international cruise group was considering giving up on reopening Hong Kong services and moving to Singapore. The chairman of the Travel Industry Council of Hong Kong, Xu Wang Meilun, warned that if there is no relaxation, there will be no cruise ships in Hong Kong in the next two years, and Hong Kong will lose its home port status.

A meme titled “Hong Kong’s New Four Wonders” is circulating in Hong Kong’s online community. The content is: the third runway of the airport is built but there are no planes; the high-speed rail station is built but there is no high-speed rail; the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge is built but there is no car; the Kai Tak cruise terminal is built but there is no cruise ship.

Liu Ruishao told BBC Chinese: “Everyone understands that Beijing has repeatedly said ‘firmly grasp the overall governance’, so sooner or later everyone will be held accountable and pursued to Beijing. Various circumstances have accelerated the speed of recovery now.”

Beijing also appears to have expressed its softening stance. Huang Liuquan, deputy director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council of China, said at a press conference on September 20: “I have noticed that the new SAR government has repeatedly emphasized that connecting to the world and customs clearance with the mainland are not contradictory. We will also coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development according to the changes in the epidemic situation in Hong Kong and the global epidemic situation and the actual situation in Hong Kong, and adjust and optimize the epidemic prevention and control measures in Hong Kong according to the situation.”

“I think these adjustments made by the SAR government are understandable and do not need to be over-interpreted.”

Jin Dongyan, a professor at the School of Biomedical Sciences at the University of Hong Kong’s Faculty of Medicine, told the BBC Chinese: “In fact, this matter has been brewing for a long time. After they (the government) discussed it again and again, the wind blew early in the morning.”

“This decision should be made by Hong Kong itself, but Beijing has always been informed… If mainland China really doesn’t want Hong Kong to ‘open and close’, Hong Kong will not open it.”

An article jointly signed by Professor Jin Dongyan and three other academics from the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong was posted online this week as the Hong Kong government decided to relax quarantine measures on entry. The article said that Hong Kong has been fully prepared and has fully understood the various characteristics and characteristics of the current Omicron series of mutant virus strains, so Hong Kong is “completely qualified” to resume normal social operations.

Professor Jin told the BBC Chinese reporter that the article had been in the works for two weeks.

“We didn’t say we were going to sing opposites to him (Lu Chongmao), but this was our subject of study. We told all the scientific facts, what evidence we had, and what our thoughts were. We told everyone about it. Just for reference.”

More than two months ago, Lu Chongmao had not yet joined the SAR government, and was still a chair professor of hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong and president of the Shenzhen Hospital of the University of Hong Kong. Jin Dongyan emphasized that the authors and Lu Chongmao are friends, and writing this article does not mean to embarrass him.

One of the four signed authors is Yuan Guoyong, Chair Professor of the Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong. He is also a member of the “Anti-epidemic Expert Advisory Group” appointed by Li Jiachao, and he also participated in the anti-epidemic work in mainland China as a member of the high-level expert group of the National Health Commission of China in the early stage of the new crown epidemic. Shortly before this article was published, he himself was diagnosed with the new crown for the first time and had to isolate at home.

This is not the first time that Professor Yuan Guoyong has participated in writing an article calling for the relaxation of anti-epidemic measures. In mid-July, he and three other members of the Hong Kong University School of Medicine Assistant Dean, Professor Kong Fanyi, who are also members of the expert advisory group, wrote an article, calling for the gradual relaxation of social distancing measures during the summer. Community-generated natural infection through low-level transmission creates “mixed immunity” with vaccination, thereby preventing the collapse of the medical system.

The official China Central Television wrote an article in early September, citing the epidemic in the United States as an example to severely criticize: “It has been proven time and time again that if you choose to coexist with the virus, you choose to dance with the devil.

But in an exclusive interview with “60 Minutes Current Affairs Magazine” broadcast by CBS on September 18, U.S. President Joe Biden said that the new crown epidemic has ended in the United States.

The article by Yuan Guoyong and others also said, “The public should begin to understand the fact that the new coronavirus infection has taken root in Hong Kong and has become an endemic disease.” Even a more aggressive plan to accelerate the return to normal.”

Lu Chongmao said at a press conference: “One of the most important things in Hong Kong’s return to normal is that our medical system should return to normal.” Jin Dongyan believes that treating the new coronavirus disease as a respiratory virus disease such as influenza is a “face to the face”. reality”, and can significantly release medical resources. There are many private individual general practitioner clinics in Hong Kong, and the “downgrade” of the new crown virus disease means that the number of doctors who can diagnose and treat the new crown virus disease has increased significantly.

Jin Dongyan also pointed out to the BBC Chinese that the reason why it is safer to return to normal now is because the data shows that the virus reproduction rate has been significantly reduced, and Hong Kong will no longer have the “super spread” event in early 2022 in the soil.

Medical experts also chanted the background of “0+7”, which is “The God of Wealth shouts poverty”.

In a blog post, the Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, said: “In an environment of economic downturn, it can be expected that the government’s revenue will not be as good as expected, but expenditure has risen, and under this circumstance, the fiscal position for the current year will be worse than expected. Estimated 2022 A deficit of more than $100 billion will be recorded in FY23, much higher than the $56.3 billion estimated in the Budget earlier this year.”

“If so, this will be the second-highest fiscal deficit ever, second only to the previous year’s (2020) record deficit of 232.5 billion yuan, which means that the government’s fiscal reserves may further fall to the edge of 800 billion yuan.”

On September 22, Chen Maobo further explained to the reporters: “This year’s economic environment is just average. You can see that the property market and the stock market are relatively quiet, so stamp duty income is expected to decline. In addition, in this property market environment, land sales income It will also fall, so we estimate that there will be a deficit of over 100 billion this year.”

“In general, everyone saw that the economy contracted more severely in the first half of the year, and it is estimated that the chance of negative growth this year is very high.”

Professor Jin Dongyan admitted to BBC Chinese that it is precisely because the impact of the continuous strict control of the epidemic on Hong Kong’s economy has emerged one after another at this time that they took this opportunity to publish their joint article.

Dr. Ruan Yingxian, a lecturer in economics at the University of Hong Kong, pointed out to the BBC Chinese: “Usually financial secretaries do ‘expectation management’. He told you early on that it was very serious – it was his fault that the accounts were not good, and he was worried that everyone would blame him – and finally At the time of settlement, you can use financial skills to make the accounts look better.”

Analysing the economic situation in Hong Kong this year, Ruan Yingxian said: “Basically the whole first half of the year is gone, and now it’s September and the third quarter, but you can see many shops saying they are waiting to close and can’t pay rent. ‘On/Off’ or you won’t survive. The overall economic outlook has also been revised down.”

“But in fact, he can survive for a while, because he claims that the treasury has fallen to 800 billion, and even if there is no income of a dollar, the government can survive for more than a year, and it has the conditions to continue to provide some subsidies, money, and subsidies. But the problem is, I don’t think poor people want subsidies anymore.”

The Hong Kong business community is now looking forward to the news of the lifting of the lockdown, and the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce, the Chinese General Chamber of Commerce, the Hong Kong Tourism Board, and the Hong Kong Airport Authority have all expressed their welcome. But how fast can the economy recover?

“It will take time for individuals and businesses to respond to the new measures, and it will take time for airlines to adjust their flights. People and events that have left Hong Kong in the last few years will never return,” S&P Global’s Louie Louie told the BBC.

“But in terms of competing with other cities in terms of connectivity, loosening tourism measures will restore a level playing field (for Hong Kong).”

In the past at least a year, the international business community has estimated when China will “switch on and off” and resume normal exchanges with the world, generally based on the time of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Now the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is scheduled to be held on October 16, and Hong Kong “switches on” to the world before this date. In Hong Kong’s political circles dominated by the pro-establishment faction, many people continue to emphasize that it is very important for Hong Kong and mainland China to achieve quarantine-free customs clearance.

So, is it still far from China’s removal of entry quarantine control?

Professor Jin Dongyan told BBC Chinese that it is “absolutely impossible” that China will loosen its ties before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which is related to mainland China’s insistence on vigorous control.

“Mainland China is the only big country in the world today that has never experienced a large-scale infection (of the new coronavirus). If it is released now, there will be outbreaks everywhere. What they fear most is a big outbreak, and then the public hospitals will collapse.”

“You can say that it may change in policy after the 20th National Congress, but the change can only be done step by step, and there are real dangers. Like the outbreak in Hong Kong at the beginning of this year, or the outbreak in Shanghai some time ago, it can happen at any time. could happen.”

Kim Dongyan mentioned the outbreak in North Korea earlier. North Korea immediately shut down the country at the beginning of the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, but it still broke out after all. “The difference between North Korea and China is that China has the ability to detect. North Korea can’t even figure out who is really diagnosed and who is asymptomatic, but in the end it survived.”

“China is now forcibly guarding it with a lot of manpower and material resources, but it is impossible to guard it forever.”

Liu Ruishao believes that when mainland China is willing to open its borders depends on the economy, but it is expected to open up, because “the current economy is already very bad.”

When mainland China will open its borders to the world will depend on the autumn and winter. When Hong Kong will resume customs clearance with mainland China, there may be little difference.