The expected Chinese “turn” on Ukraine takes shape in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Xi’s envoy for Eurasian affairs and Beijing’s plenipotentiary for the path that will lead to the negotiations, Li Hui, leaves the meeting in which the delegations of 42 countries including Brazil and India met, with Ukraine present and absent Russia, uninvited, promising that the Chinese “will continue to strengthen dialogue and exchanges with all parties, constantly expand consensus and trust, strive to form the broadest common agreement” for a political solution. He rejoices in Kiev, and speaks of “constructive” talks, against Moscow which brands them as “futile”. But in the meantime, the sources of the Financial Times confirm that Li Hui’s impression of the Western delegates is that of wanting to “try to demonstrate that China is not aligned with Russia”. Rumors speak of an attempt by Beijing, rejected by Zelensky’s allies, to obtain a ceasefire already in recent days. Truce that would freeze the Russian advance. The Russian agency RIA Novosti quotes an internal source of the Turkish government according to which “Erdogan will offer his mediation in resolving the conflict, reiterating the thesis according to which there will be neither winners nor losers in this war”. The Turkish leader will present Putin, in view of the next face-to-face meeting, a proposal for a ceasefire, the first step towards the table for peace. For the moment, Kiev is not ready and is refusing any compromise, even calling on the Russians to withdraw from all occupied and annexed territories, including Crimea, before any negotiations.
China and Russia, first cracks between Putin and Xi: peace irritating the Kremlin
On the other hand Maria Zacharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, dismisses the Jeddah meeting as an attempt by the «Kiev regime» and the West to impose «a meaningless ultimatum», Moscow’s withdrawal, which would only serve to «prolong the conflict”. Zacharova reiterates Putin’s conditions: the “neutrality” of Ukraine between the Western and Russian blocs, and the acknowledgment of the “new territorial reality” designed by arms and the so-called referendums. “No meeting on Ukraine can have added value without the participation of Russia or without taking into account its interests.”
TURN
But it is now China that is making the difference, and probably Putin’s breaking of the wheat pact was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Beijing has an interest in maintaining the alliance with Russia, perhaps as a vassal after the weakening caused by the “Ukrainian campaign”, but neither can it tolerate a growing source of market and trade instability, as demonstrated by the grain crisis and the militarization of the Black Sea. And so it is that China participates in the Jeddah initiative even without Russia, after refusing to attend a similar meeting in Copenhagen. Here is the call from the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, to his Russian counterpart, Lavrov, to say that despite the iron pact between the two countries, China “will maintain an independent and impartial position in any international and multilateral circumstance, will express a objective and rational opinion, will actively promote reconciliation, facilitate negotiations, and make every effort to find a way to a political resolution.” Meanwhile, the Chinese envoy has confirmed that he will meet again with his counterparts, diplomatic advisers and national security advisers to leaders, in a month and a half when the Jeddah format will be replicated. Yes, on the table there is the Chinese 12-point plan, which provides among other things for the recognition of the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine as a starting point, but above all there is the 10-point plan of Kiev, on which it was decided to create separate working groups.
POINTS OF VIEW
Then everyone reads the results achieved in Jeddah in their own way. For Zelensky’s right-hand man, Andriy Yermat, the summit “dealt a heavy blow to Russia”, above all because Moscow is now isolated. The only one not invited. For the Italian Foreign Minister, Tajani, “China’s presence in Jeddah certainly represents an important step forward”. And Prime Minister Meloni’s diplomatic adviser, Francesco Talò, writes in a tweet that “Italy supports Ukraine in its efforts for a just peace”. Just and lasting, if the US secretary of state, Blinken, spoke on the phone with his Ukrainian counterpart, Kuleba, above all about the long-term security that will have to be guaranteed in Kiev after the ceasefire and peace. That is, the prospect of entry (and of what kind) into NATO.
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