[Military Hotspot]Ukrainian Army Crosses the Dnieper River Russians Are Getting Tired of War | Ukraine War | Mobilization Order | Intelligence Department

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The war in Ukraine has entered its 284th day, and the Russian public is showing growing discontent with the war as losses mount.

Polls in Russia show that from August to October, the number of respondents in favor of continuing Russia’s military operations in Ukraine dropped from 44% to 36%, while those who believed Russia should start peace talks increased from 44% to 57%. The levada center’s polls for the period July-November 2022 show a small and consistent decline in support for the war among Russians. The Levada Center’s findings are similar to an internal poll commissioned by the Kremlin in November, which found that 55 percent of Russians favored peace talks with Ukraine, while only 25 percent favored continuing the war.

If current trends hold, Russian morale and political support for the war may decline further over time. The longer the war continues to take its toll on Russians, the more likely sociopolitical dynamics will continue to work against the Kremlin.

Of course, the Russian public did not get the full picture of how the war was going. Despite efforts by Russian authorities to exert pervasive control over the information environment, the conflict has become increasingly concrete for many Russians since the partial mobilization in September 2022. With Russia unlikely to achieve major battlefield victories in the coming months, it may be increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to maintain popular acquiescence in the war, according to MI.

Much of the Russian public’s dissatisfaction with the war had to do with Russian military casualties. In November alone, more than 15,000 Russian troops were killed and tens of thousands wounded, according to Ukrainian official estimates. In addition, the Russians lost hundreds of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other weapons.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s battle report on December 4 shows that about 91,150 Russian troops have been killed, and the Ukrainian army has destroyed 281 fixed-wing military aircraft, 263 attack and transport helicopters, 2,922 tanks, 1,908 artillery pieces, and 5,892 armored transport vehicles. Army vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as a host of other equipment and ammunition.

More than nine months of war and tens of thousands of casualties have caused Russians to rethink President Vladimir Putin’s special military operations in Ukraine. The partial mobilization of 300,000 men did not help Russia turn the tide of the war.

Russian documents show that despite Putin’s Oct. 31 announcement to formally end some mobilizations, Russian authorities have continued to mobilize Russian citizens. A document from the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) staff said that Putin’s announcement of the end of the mobilization option did not mean the end of the partial mobilization, and Putin’s original mobilization order continued to be valid. In fact, Moscow is preparing for a larger mobilization.

At the same time, the Russian occupation forces continued to mobilize Ukrainian citizens to join the Russian army in the occupied territories. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on December 3 that in the occupied Donetsk Makivka, Russian authorities issued mobilization summons to Ukrainian citizens queuing for bottled water, forcing them to register with the local military council.

On December 4, Irina Shcherbakova, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and co-founder of the Russian charity Memorial, said Putin was unlikely to agree to a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine . As long as the Putin regime is in place, there will be no diplomatic solution, she said. She believes that Putin’s position on ending the war is tragic and that military means may be the only way to resolve the conflict.

On Dec. 3 at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California, U.S. intelligence chief Avril Haines offered some optimism for the Ukrainian military. Hines said the Russian invasion of Ukraine is now on the downswing, and she believes Ukrainian forces have an advantage in winter combat.

Hines believes that Putin’s advisers have not provided him with a comprehensive and clear report on Russia’s losses on the battlefield. She said it was still unclear how much Putin knew, and suggested the Russian military might not be ready for winter combat.

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its tenth month, the Russian military is depleting its ammunition stockpiles at an extraordinary rate and may not have enough capacity to tackle weapons replacements and ammunition replenishments on its own. “It’s really unusual that they don’t have the capability to produce locally what they consume at this stage, which is why you see them trying to go to other countries to get ammunition,” Hines said. Specifically, Russia’s stockpile of precision munitions is depleting the fastest. She said the U.S. intelligence community and allies are closely monitoring the state of Russia’s ammunition stockpile. Russia has acquired some artillery ammunition from North Korea, and the intelligence community is also tracking those transactions, but at this stage, not a lot.

Meanwhile, Russia is trying to get more precision munitions from Iran. Iran has provided drones to Russia to help it attack Ukrainian power infrastructure. Heins said Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, gas, heating and other civilian infrastructure were outrageous and illegal. One of Russia’s motivations for these attacks was to undermine the will to fight among Ukrainians, but the U.S. has seen no signs that this is being successful, she said.

Over time, this disruption may have some consequences, but the extent of the impact depends on the resilience of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and the ability of Western countries to help Ukraine defend these objectives.

While the United States continues to provide weapons to Ukraine, it is also improving its own arms production capabilities. The U.S. Army last week awarded Lockheed Martin a $431 million contract to produce more of the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, and ammunition. In recent months, the United States has provided Ukraine with this weapon system and a large amount of supporting ammunition in batches.

On a panel at the forum that day, Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes expressed concern about the rate at which stinger and javelin ammunition is being used and resupplied in Ukraine. While Raytheon and Lockheed Martin can make about 400 Javelins a month, they essentially used up 13 years of Stinger production and five years of Javelin production in the first 10 months of the war, Hayes said. So the question is, how to restock.

U.S. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said on the panel that her department has pitched $6 billion in contracts to industry to help replenish munitions, including the Excalibur made by Raytheon and BAE. ) precision-guided artillery rounds, and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Air Defense System (NASAMS) from Raytheon and Kongsberg to help Ukraine, and to rebuild the U.S. stockpile.

The arrival of winter may favor Ukrainian forces to pick up the pace of the battle. And Russian military operations, amid a sharply rising casualty rate, have slowed recently. Most of the fighting is now taking place in the Donetsk region.

On December 3, Russian forces continued their offensive operations around Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled the Russian offensive near Soledad, 13 kilometers northeast of Bakhmut, and near Opitny, 4 kilometers south. Russian military bloggers said reports of Ukrainian troops withdrawing from the Bakhmut suburb were false and heavy fighting was still taking place in Opit.

Ukrainian troops have crossed the Dnieper across the river from Kherson to the east bank. The Ukrainian Carlson Special Forces announced on December 3 that Ukrainian soldiers crossed the Dnieper River to the east bank and hoisted the Ukrainian flag on a tower crane on the bank. This is the first time since the Russian invasion that the Ukrainian flag has been flown on the east bank of the Dnieper River. This successful operation marks that Ukrainian forces have begun to prepare for the invasion of Crimea. If confirmed, the limited offensive would open the way for Ukrainian forces to launch operations east of the Dnieper.

Written by: Xia Luoshan (a reporter from The Epoch Times, who has experienced more than ten years of military life, mainly engaged in military teaching and some technical management work)
Production: Current Affairs Military Production Team
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