Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has entered its 10th day. Some strange phenomena of the Russian army began to attract the attention of Western military experts.
The first is a Russian army that stretches for 64 kilometers, and it is rare to stay outside the city of Kyiv for many days.
It has been cloudy near Kyiv for the past two days, and satellite photos cannot show the exact location of the army. However, according to the British Ministry of Defense, at least from the 1st to the 4th, it can be determined that this convoy, including armored vehicles, tanks, and artillery, has been stagnant 24 kilometers away from Kyiv.
CNN quoted the British Ministry of Defense intelligence as saying that the reasons for the convoy’s delay included the delay of the Russian army’s operation, the strong resistance of the convoy from Ukraine, as well as mechanical failure and road blockages.
The most important reason, according to a March 4 article in The Economist, is logistics.
The article quoted US Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vershinin in an article last November saying that compared with NATO’s similar equipment, the Russian army’s artillery and anti-aircraft missiles are much heavier, which makes logistics more difficult. : On a daily basis, a detachment firing 4,000 shells requires 50 trucks to supply.Lieutenant Colonel Verhinen concluded that as long as the supply point is more than 90 miles away, the Russian army will not have enough trucks to come“meet its logistical needs”.
CNN reported that the stagnation of the convoy may cause many strategic troubles. First, this route is the main route for the Russian army to attack Kyiv. The convoy will be stationary and will become the target of the Ukrainian Air Force. The convoy was stuck for many days, which is bound to have a negative impact on the morale and discipline of the Russian army.
Secondly, the Russian Air Force has not carried out large-scale operations in Ukraine so far, which has also caused experts to question.
The Royal Inter-Services Research Institute (RUSI), the most influential defense think tank in the United Kingdom, published an official article on the 4th saying that the Russian Air Force has so far only sent helicopters for limited missions, and to avoid Ukraine’s man-portable air defense systems and ground artillery fire Russia Helicopters are almost always dispatched at night, and Russia’s fighter-bomber fleet has so far been unable to establish air superiority or provide strong firepower for ground forces. This is simply explained by Russia’s lack of precision-guided munitions and pilots capable of ground precision strikes. is not enough.
The article mentioned that one explanation is that the Russian military deliberately retained its air strike force to check, balance and deter NATO and avoid direct intervention by NATO. But the article also stated that this reason is too reluctant, especially the current setbacks encountered by the Russian ground forces have made the international community question the Russian military’s ability to conduct conventional operations.
The article believes that one of the most likely reasons why the Russian military has not been able to establish air supremacy is that the Russian Air Force lacks the ability to plan and execute complex large-scale air operations.
Supporting arguments made by the article include: the Russian military has no experience in large-scale air operations or exercises in the past few decades, and only fought against small groups in the Syrian war in 2015; most Russian Air Force pilots fly about 100 hours per year Below, is only half of the flying time of most NATO Air Force pilots.
Putin originally expected to complete the invasion of Ukraine within a few days, but did not expect the war to be delayed until now, and some of the Russian army’s fatal weaknesses began to be exposed.