:format(jpeg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elespectador/A3U4JGOKGZBJZIJ4TSP6CMZ43M.jpg "Price of the dollar today, January 29 in Colombia")
Analysts at the Bank of the Republic estimate that the dollar will not rise beyond $4,003 in January 2024. Likewise, Banrep’s projections indicated a greater tendency towards a TRM between $3,839 and $3,939 during 2024. Reference image.
Photo: Bloomberg Agency
A key week begins for the direction of the dollar in Colombia. First, on Tuesday the 30th and Wednesday the 31st, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will meet to make its next interest rate decision. The Bank of the Republic will do the same this Wednesday and a few days later the unemployment data will be known by DANE. These data, both local and United States, will cause movements in the exchange rate
This Monday, January 29, the dollar closed its price at $3,931. This translates into an increase of $27 compared to last Friday’s close ($3,905). After the first market operations, the currency was trading at an average of $3,904.
For its part, the Representative Market Rate (TRM), set by the Financial Superintendency, remains unchanged at $3,925. The current TRM is $623.24 lower than a year ago (January 29, 2023), but rose $103.21 compared to a month ago.
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Dollar forecasts
The expectation for the dollar exchange rate (Representative Market Rate -TRM-) indicates that the currency will end the month between $3,919 and $3,980, according to the most recent Fedesarrollo Financial Opinion Survey. Likewise, analysts predict a TRM of $4,025 for December 2024.
For their part, analysts at the Bank of the Republic estimate that the dollar will not rise beyond $4,003 in January 2024. Likewise, Banrep’s projections indicated a greater tendency towards a TRM between $3,839 and $3,939 during 2024.
“What can mainly affect the dollar is an adjustment in bonds (investment instruments in public debt). These have lost ground in the United States, because the market is no longer very optimistic about a reduction in interest rates at the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the short term. This has generated a recomposition of portfolios and is a variable that, for me, affects the markets and the dollar,” explains Diego Franco, head of Investments at Franco Capital Asset Management.
“(End January 2024) with a dollar one step ahead of $4,000 is quite feasible for the local currency. We even believe that emerging currencies may lose value in February,” Franco added.
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For his part, Adrián Garlati, director of the Economics program at the Javeriana University, points out that “the factors that impact the dollar in the Colombian case have a lot to do with the international price of oil. There is a lot of uncertainty due to this whole conflict in the Middle East (Israel in Gaza). If it is maintained, it is a controlled risk. But the issue is that, apparently, the conflict is expanding (…) and there is concern about the supply networks, for oil and other goods, in the Red Sea. This can impact the price of oil and, logically, the price of the dollar in Colombia.”
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