Financial Associated Press, November 4th (Editor Liu Rui)Next Tuesday (November 8), Eastern Time, the 2022 midterm elections in the United States will be officially held. Although this round of elections has nothing to do with the presidency, the outcome of the election will determine the two-party power structure in the U.S. Congress in the next two years, thereby affecting the direction of U.S. politics, so it has attracted widespread attention.
Generally speaking, midterm elections are often seen as a “referendum” for the performance of the incumbent president – and for the current US President Biden, this “midterm test” may be particularly difficult: the current US The inflation rate is still hovering near multi-decade highs, and the Fed’s continued interest rate hikes have hit the U.S. economic growth rate. At the same time, disputes such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, racial equality, and abortion rights have all posed a test to Biden’s Democratic Party.
The donkey-elephant battle is a metaphor for the two-party system in the United States, usually referring to the contest between Democrats and Republicans in U.S. elections. “Donkey” is the party emblem of the Democratic Party, and “elephant” is the party emblem of the Republican Party. Therefore, in many political cartoons in the United States, donkeys and elephants are used to replace the Democratic Party and the Republican Party respectively.
In the past two years after Biden took office, Democrats have been in control of the White House, House of Representatives, and Senate, enabling them to more smoothly implement the policies and bills they advocate. However, judging from the current polls and early voting results, this “good luck” for the Democratic Party may be coming to an end.
What do you need to know about the midterm elections?
Although the midterm elections do not include a presidential race, the outcome of the midterm elections is crucial for the remainder of U.S. President Joe Biden’s term. Because this election could topple Democrats’ control of Congress — which would seriously affect Biden’s ability to advance his political agenda.
U.S. House of Representatives serve two-year terms, while Senators serve six-year terms, so all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for re-election in this midterm election, while only about one-third (35) of the 100 Senate seats are up for re-election. seats) will be re-elected.
In the House of Representatives, Democrats hold a narrow 220-212 majority, with three more seats currently vacant due to the resignation of two Democrats and the death of a Republican.
In this midterm election, Republicans need to win five more seats than in 2020 (213) to get an outright majority in the House of Representatives (218) — but from previous polls, Republicans have a sizable grip ‘s odds.
Republicans are more likely to win 216 seats, Democrats are more likely to win 199 seats (Source: CNN) And in the Senate, Democrats and Republicans had a 50-50 ratio. Democrats have traditionally held a narrow margin on the vote count, as Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, can vote in a tie in the Senate.
Compared to the House of Representatives, the Republican advantage in the Senate is less pronounced. 36 Democratic seats and 29 Republican seats will not be contested this time, meaning Republicans need to win 22 seats in this election to secure an absolute majority in the Senate — while Democrats only need to win 14 seats are enough.
Republicans have a good chance of winning 20 seats (need to win 22 to secure a majority), Democrats have a good chance of winning 12 seats (need to win 14 to secure a majority) Of the 50 U.S. states excluding the U.S. Congress , there are 36 states and 3 territories governors, state legislatures, local councils, etc. will also hold elections on November 8.
Which states are worth focusing on?
In this midterm election, the most noteworthy are these six key states:Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Nevada.
Democrats and Republicans are evenly matched in these six states, and the outcome of the elections in these six states is likely to determine the direction of the final election.
Among them, Arizona, Georgia and Michigan have been controlled by Republicans for most of the past decades. However, in the 2020 election, Biden unexpectedly defeated Trump and won the three states. victory.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have historically been dominated by Democrats – before the 2016 election, Democrats won Pennsylvania six times in a row and Wisconsin seven times in a row, but Trump won the 2016 election by a narrow margin. these two states. In the 2020 election, Biden once again won back both states by a narrow margin.
andNevada has always been the ‘battlefield’ in every U.S. election“—From 1980 to 2012, every presidential candidate who won Nevada ended up winning.
Although this record was broken in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won Nevada but lost the election in 2016, in the 2020 election, the same pattern is fulfilled again: After Biden won Nevada, he also Finally won the US election.
However, from the perspective of historical elections, although Democrats have won the state in all previous presidential elections since 2008, the Democratic Party’s electoral advantage in Nevada has been shrinking year by year – which also means that this time In the midterm elections, the race in Nevada could be fierce.
Who is more dominant now?
The current situation is very unfavorable for Democrats, both in terms of polls and early voting results.
The latest comprehensive poll data from the US polling agency FiveThirtyEight shows that as of November 3, Eastern Time, Biden’s approval rate was only 42.3%, while the disapproval rate was as high as 53.2%. Compared with the same period, Biden’s approval rate is the lowest among recent presidents, and even slightly lower than the 42.4% of former President Trump in the same period.
And according to the results of the simulation election conducted by FiveThirtyEight based on the poll results, it is almost a certainty for the Republicans to win the majority of the House of Representatives-the Republicans have an 85% probability of winning the House of Representatives, while the Democrats have only a 15% chance of winning. Republicans also have a greater chance of winning the Senate majority — 55 percent for Republicans and 45 percent for Democrats.
The Republicans have a much higher chance of winning the House than the Democrats (source: FiveThirtyEight) The Economist’s simulations were similar: Democrats had a 46 percent chance of winning the Senate, and Republicans had a 54 percent chance of winning.
Source: “The Economist” Judging from the situation of the early elections, it also reflects the aggressiveness of the Republican Party this time.
As of Thursday, Eastern Time, American voters had cast more than 32 million ballots in advance by mail and other methods.
While it’s hard to see what’s going on in the early elections — less than half of the states have released their current vote totals — judging by the number of votes that have been released,Compared with the eve of previous elections, Republicans generally voted more enthusiastically, while Democrats were slightly less enthusiastic than in previous elections.
And the trend is based on the fact that Democratic voters are more inclined to vote early. With former President Trump complaining about possible fraudulent mail-in voting in the 2020 election, many Republican leaders are not encouraging voters to vote by mail, but instead are encouraging voters to vote in person on Election Day; instead, Democrats have generally urged Voters cast their ballots early and are encouraged to vote by mail.
This means that, in theory, Democrats should have an advantage in early voting — but that doesn’t seem to be the case at the moment, which is a crisis signal for Democrats.
The crisis is especially pronounced in Nevada, a “key battleground state.”
According to pollster John Couvillon, Democrats have only a 3 percent lead over Republicans in early voting in Nevada, compared with early voting in previous elections. The advantage can usually reach more than 10%.That means Democrats are likely to lose in Nevada on November 8, the day of the official election.
“In 2020, Democrats have a much larger lead on the early ballots — in the double digits — even though Democrats have a final lead of just 2 percentage points in the final election results that year.” Couveron said.
It’s a similar situation in Florida. From previous elections, Democrats have gained a significant advantage in Florida’s early elections. However, in this mid-term election, the early voting rate of Democratic voters was only 21%, which was lower than the 23% of Republican voters.
When will the election result be announced?
In past midterm elections, the results of most congressional seats can be announced within 24 hours of the election, usually on the night of Election Day or the next morning. in other words,In the evening of November 8th or the early morning of November 9th, eastern time, the preliminary results can be released.
However, if no candidate in an individual state gets more than 50 percent of the vote, the two candidates with the most votes may go to a runoff.
Judging from previous elections, the results of the runoff may not be announced until December. According to the analysis, this situation may occur in at least one state in this round of midterm elections.Therefore, the final results of the bipartisan seats may not be finally announced until December at the latest.