Executive summary:On August 1, the first ship carrying Ukrainian grain departed from the port of Odessa after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the Ukrainian grain export process has since restarted.
On August 1, the first ship carrying Ukrainian grain departed from the port of Odessa after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the Ukrainian grain export process has since restarted.
The Secretary-General of the United Nations welcomed this, and Ukraine’s infrastructure minister also praised the “full implementation of the agreement signed in Turkey” with the cooperation of various parties. However, there are also opinions that this grain export ship is the first test of the “grain corridor”, and the smooth export of Ukrainian grain is still facing challenges from communication, military, supervision, mutual trust and other fields.
Can the food be exported smoothly?also consider these challenges
The vessel, named “Razoni”, is expected to arrive in Istanbul, Turkey on the 2nd, where it will be inspected. After that, it will continue to sail and finally reach Lebanon.
“Razoni” is 186 meters long and 25 meters wide, flying the flag of Sierra Leone, with a total load of 30,000 tons, this time it loaded more than 26,000 tons of corn. After it, grain-laden ships will leave Ukrainian ports one after another, and another 16 ships are currently waiting in line.
The outside world has high hopes for these grain ships.
According to Griffiths, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, if the agreement reached by the four parties can be fully implemented, 5 million tons of grain can be exported every month through Ukrainian ports, returning to the level before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
If the export process goes well, these grains will be gradually shipped to many parts of the world, alleviating the food crisis. At the same time, it will also help solve the grain inventory problem in Ukraine, the “granary of Europe”, and transport 20 million tons of stranded grains to make room for new harvests.
However, the smooth export of grain also faces many challenges.
First, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine means that any substantial progress on the military and other fronts could affect the implementation of the agreement. Mine-laden waters also add a lot of risk to ships.
Secondly, there are various signs that there is still a gap of trust between Moscow and Kyiv: representatives of the two countries could not even sign the agreement at the same table, and shortly after the agreement was reached, Russia launched an attack on the military area of the port of Odessa, and the two sides continued military conflicts.
In addition, during the implementation of the agreement, countries are likely to disagree on many technical details and interpretation of specific terms. There is a large and complex preparation of shipping lanes, ships, crews, and insurance. With a little carelessness, the “details” may also have an impact on the overall grain transportation plan.
The most important point is that during the implementation process, Turkey, the mediator, and the UN, the host, have neither direct management nor tools to exert pressure on the parties to the agreement. This makes the conclusion and continuation of the agreement largely dependent on the goodwill of the joint efforts of Russia and Ukraine, as well as political decisions.
What is the prospect of the “grain transport agreement”?There is risk in hope
The grain transport ships that have sailed out of many uncertainties are also testing the results of the grain transport agreement reached through difficult coordination and efforts by many parties.
Ukraine’s infrastructure minister said it was “another step towards preventing world hunger”.
The Russian President’s Press Secretary Peskov also praised the departure of the grain ship from the port as “very positive” and considered it a “good opportunity to test the effectiveness of the mechanism reached in the Istanbul talks.”
Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Kubrakov said that “unblocked ports will provide Ukraine with at least $1 billion in foreign exchange earnings and create opportunities for the agricultural sector to plant seeds next year.”
The Al Jazeera analysis pointed out that the whole world will benefit in terms of food, fertilizer and agricultural prices. This can be seen in the market’s reaction, as predictions that the world will face food shortages have changed, and the momentum of the sharp rise in food markets has begun to reverse.
In poor countries facing food shortages and relying heavily on food imports, the food shipped out is undoubtedly a “timely rain”; and for more developed countries, it can also benefit economically. Economists at JPMorgan Chase pointed out that falling food prices will help ease inflationary pressures faced by countries.
However, in addition to many bright prospects, Al Jazeera also made an analysis from the perspective of potential risks, pointing out that the demand for food in poor countries has been used as an important reason for reaching an agreement. Therefore, after the implementation of the agreement, the world will face chemical fertilizers and the fair distribution of agricultural products, whether poor countries can really get the food they need.
In addition, since food exports can bring in a lot of income, it is also a worrying issue whether the relevant parties will re-invest fiscal revenue into the military field and prolong the duration of the conflict.
This grain ship, carrying many uncertainties and challenges, has set off from the Ukrainian port. From the initial doubts and worries, to the smooth sailing and full of hope today, can it lead Russia and Ukraine to peace and go further?
Original title: Russia and Ukraine negotiated, and the grain ship finally set off. Is the food crisis saved?