Based on the latest analyzes issued by several meteorological centers, a new El Niño is expected in the Pacific at the end of this year, which will potentially lead to a new acceleration of the warming of the planet, said climatologist, professor Dr. Vladimir Đurđević.
He added that in that case, the chances of 2024 being warmer than the global warmest so far, 2016, would increase significantly.
In the tropical part of the Pacific, every three to four years, for a long period of time that can last several months, there is a slowing down, and sometimes the complete absence of the trade winds, the dominant winds in this part of the world. These unusual conditions, characterized by the weakening of the trade winds, are the announcement of the beginning of the El Niño phenomenon.
Phenomenon The Ninja
„By the way, El Niño is part of a more complex phenomenon that is a consequence of the complex interaction of the atmosphere and the ocean. However, what characterizes the so-called El Niño phase of this phenomenon in the first place is the gradual spread of warm water, which is concentrated in the western part of the tropical Pacific, towards its central and eastern areas, making these areas unusually warm. As this phenomenon covers vast expanses measuring tens of millions of square kilometers, it is not surprising that its consequences can be registered all over the planet, especially in terms of unusual and extreme weather conditions.Đurđević explained to EURACTIV.
The effects of the El Niño phenomenon are more than clearly visible in tropical latitudes, so usually during the years when we have its occurrence, certain areas such as the western coasts of Central and South America have unusually large accumulations of precipitation, which often lead to devastating floods, while with other parts of the monsoon and tropical areas of Asia have a deficit of precipitation and consequently the occurrence of severe droughts.
El Niño episodes and global temperature
“Also, based on the data collected through the global observation system, during the year when El Niño develops, the average global temperature is about a tenth of a degree higher compared to the situation we would have if this phenomenon were absent. In short, during El Niño years, its signal is superimposed on the trend of global temperature increase, which is a consequence of global warming, and for this reason, breaking the record for the hottest year ever is justifiably expected,” explains Đurđević.
The reason why El Niño years are excessively warm is a direct consequence of the “spillage” of warm water from the western part of the Pacific, over the entire tropical part of its basin.
„Through this process, a large amount of warm water that accumulates in the surface layer of the ocean in the west over several years, expands to a significantly larger area, occupying the central and eastern parts, which enables a significantly greater transport of heat from the ocean to the ground layers of the atmosphere. This development of the situation is more than clearly visible during the so-called super El Niño episodes, i.e. episodes when the whole process is somewhat more intense than some ‘standard’ variants. This was precisely the reason that at the end of the nineties of the last century, the hottest year that had been recorded until then was 1998, when one of the strongest El Niños ever occurred. Also, consecutive record-breaking average global temperatures in 2015 and 2016 were associated with another super El Niño episode, which peaked in 2016.Đurđević pointed out.
During this last episode in 2016, and a more than convincing breaking of the record, the recorded anomalies of the average global temperature were greater than 1 ºC, which in a way has remained until today, he pointed out and added that the latest estimates show that the average global temperature of the last year higher on average by 1.2 ºC compared to the pre-industrial period.
Forecast for next period
„If the forecasts for the next period come true, for which there are good chances, given that El Niño is one of the rare phenomena in the Earth’s climate system that can be successfully forecast months in advance, so a new super El Niño will really start by the end of this year, it is realistic to expect that in 2024 we will see another record breaking average global temperature“, stated the climatologist. Đurđević said that this time, the analyzes show that during the year 2024, the expected temperature deviations could temporarily be higher than 1.5 ºC, which is one of the two limits defined in the Paris Agreement.
At the end of this year, in addition to a new El Niño episode, a new round of international climate negotiations is expected within the United Nations Framework Convention.
„The host country is the United Arab Emirates, and one of the central topics will be an official review of the status of the implementation of the Paris Agreement, which will surely show that the implementation is delayed, which will lead to a new round of calls for countries around the world to improve their plans to reduce emissions.Đurđević announced.
He confirmed that many already doubt how successful these calls will be and how they will be communicated in the right way, given the previous dynamics of decades of negotiations, but also the fact that the meeting will be chaired by Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC Group), which by 2030, it plans not to reduce but to increase its oil production from four to five million barrels per day.