[Epoch Times, March 5, 2022]On March 4, the ninth day of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Russian army has not yet achieved key results, and the slowness of the war has become unfavorable for the Russian army. The winter is almost over, and the muddy roads after the thaw in the spring will seriously affect the rapid maneuvering of large-scale armored forces. The Russian army began to build up to the Ukrainian border in December 2021. It should have the offensive conditions at the end of January or early February, but it was delayed until after the Beijing Winter Olympics. Not only did it lose the opportunity of the blitzkrieg, but it also had to face the constraints of climate and geographical conditions.
The war is not ideal, and Russia should review and summarize it. Will anyone blame the CCP leaders for delaying the war?
Encircling but not attacking loses the opportunity of rapid military service
The Ukrainian military claimed that it seized the entire Russian action plan document during the battle, showing that the Russian army was ready to start as early as January 18. At that time, countries were in the middle of diplomatic mediation, and Russia was still expecting NATO to make concessions, promising not to accept Ukraine as a NATO member, but NATO did not compromise.
Before the Beijing Olympics, the main force of the Russian army was roughly deployed. On February 4, Putin flew to Beijing for talks with the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party, issued a joint statement against NATO, and signed a large oil and natural gas order. Outside analysis, the CCP leaders demanded that Putin not go to war during the Winter Olympics. Although it cannot be confirmed, as soon as the Winter Olympics ended on February 20, Putin announced on February 21 that he recognized the independence of the two republics in eastern Ukraine; on February 22, The Russian Duma authorized the use of troops overseas, and Putin then ordered to march into eastern Ukraine, with a formal exchange of fire on February 24.
Putin did wait until the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics before starting. Of course, the CCP does not want to be disturbed by the “Olympic event”, and it has to listen to the sound of burning a lot of money in vain. Economically, Putin needs to secure a large order first, and politically, he also needs a joint statement with the CCP. Both sides have their own calculations, and they don’t want people’s calculations to be inferior to heaven’s calculations. The Russian army missed the opportunity of rapid soldiering.
Humans are conscious of the continuous progress of science and technology, but they are still insignificant in front of nature, and they still cannot bypass the natural conditions of climate and geography.
About 1800 years ago, Zhuge Liang during the Three Kingdoms period used climate and geography to the extreme in military affairs, and modern weather forecasts probably cannot reach the level of Zhuge Liang’s night view of astronomical phenomena. Zhuge Liang was also very good at disguising the targets of attacks and encirclement and suppression operations, often by surprise.
After 1800, the suddenness and secrecy of military offensives were still the key. Russia even played the trick of fake withdrawal, but lost the opportunity. The Ukrainian army deployed calmly and kept obtaining targeted weapons. The intelligence of the United States and the United Kingdom should have been passed on to Ukraine. Now that the Russian army is hindered in the war, it can be blamed not only on the CCP, but also on itself.
Being deceived by its own propaganda is a common thread between the Russian and Chinese armies
Russia has not used troops for a long time, and should have been observing the attitude of the United States and NATO until it was confirmed that no third party was involved before the Russian army launched an offensive. The Russian army apparently also overestimated itself, thinking that as long as the United States and NATO did not participate in the war, occupying Ukraine would be a matter of digging.
French President Emmanuel Macron bluntly stated that Russia wants to annex the entire Ukraine after a phone call with Putin. Russia is still increasing its troops, and it is believed that 190,000 people have been deployed, and 90% of them have entered Ukraine; but it seems illogical to prepare to occupy the entire Ukraine with less than 200,000 people.
During the Iraq War, the U.S. and coalition forces totaled more than 300,000 people, as well as about 120,000 contractors and mercenaries. During the Afghan war, the Taliban numbered about 60,000, and the coalition armed with modern weapons exceeded 140,000. In these two wars, neither Saddam’s regime nor the Taliban gained the support of their own citizens. Saddam’s guards, considered the most elite in Iraq, actually disbanded on their own. , pulled down the statue of Saddam Hussein.
Russia probably painted a similar vision, believing that 150,000 Ukrainian troops would be destroyed at a touch, and the Ukrainian people would obediently accept Russian rule even if they did not welcome the Russian troops. The propaganda of how powerful and modern the Russian army is, was originally used to confuse the Russian people and strategic opponents, and it probably also confuses the Russian high-level officials to some extent.
The Russian army, with less than 200,000 people, launched a full-scale attack from four directions, overestimating its own strength. Although the Russian army finally took the southern city of Kherson (Kherson), but the operation in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv was forced to delay. In Kharkov, Ukraine’s second largest city, the Russian army had not yet attacked for a long time, and had to start a large-scale bombing, but it was still difficult to capture.
The propaganda of the CCP army should be even worse. It claims to be able to take Taiwan in two weeks or even a few days. The performance of the Russian army in actual combat forced the Kremlin to adjust its plans, and I am afraid that it will also force the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party to reassess the situation. The CCP leaders will also seriously examine the strength of the CCP’s military. Will the plan for large-scale helicopter operations across the Taiwan Strait really work? Is the Chinese military capable of gaining air and sea dominance?
Bloody massacre or long siege
In recent days, the Russian army has not launched a large-scale operation against Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. After all, a comprehensive siege has not been completed. The Russian army probably also realized the disadvantage of dividing its forces, and seemed to be ready to temporarily abandon Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, and bypass the city in order to complete the encirclement east of Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, more quickly.
The Russian army should be readjusting its deployment and operational plans for Kyiv, and realizing the lack of troops, is trying to continue to increase its troops. It is still too early to evaluate the Russian army’s ability to attack the city, and the Russian army has not yet invested in siege on a large scale. However, the fact that the Ukrainian army continues to kill the Russian army should force the Russian army to wait for more military units to be in place before deciding how to attack.
The Ukrainian army deliberately avoided a large-scale confrontation with the Russian army, and continued to preserve its strength. Even seeing the long Russian convoy stagnant, it did not launch an attack easily. Instead, it chose a more suitable location for ambush and attacked the lack of support. Army isolated troops. The Ukrainian military and civilians have high national sentiment, and they appear surprisingly calm on the battlefield.
The first batch of 16,000 international fighters entered Ukraine, and the number is somewhat surprising. Among them, there are probably many professional soldiers. It is almost impossible for the militaries of various countries to give up the opportunity to observe actual combat in close proximity. Professional soldiers should also have a real desire to fight the Russian army. They can take off their military uniforms and participate in the war voluntarily. Governments of various countries will definitely deny that they have sent troops.
Russia also presumably feels that it is likely to be at war with military personnel from different countries, with at least some advisers directing the Ukrainian military, including providing intelligence and cutting-edge equipment. Russia’s threat of nuclear weapons and bombing of Ukrainian nuclear power plants should be trying to intimidate countries to stop helping Ukrainian troops fight, and is also trying to prepare for a long siege.
The Russian army will not easily give up the capture of Kyiv, but the encirclement has not been completed, absolute air superiority has not been established, and the conditions for a strong attack are not mature. Even if the encirclement is completed, whether to choose a bloody massacre or a long-term siege, you still need to choose again.
The Russian army may be able to take down the ruined Kyiv regardless of casualties, but it may not be able to completely destroy the Ukrainian army. The Russian army may be able to behead Ukrainian President Zelensky, but it is difficult to destroy the will of the Ukrainian military and civilians to resist; in the history of Ukraine’s annexed Poland and Russia, there has never been a lack of national leaders. The Russian army may eventually occupy several major cities, but it requires a large number of troops to be stationed. The Ukrainian army, guerrillas and international fighters should continue to be active in different areas, and it is difficult for the Russian army to completely block international aid.
Whether it is a huge war cost or constant casualties, Russia may not be able to bear it. Whether the CCP continues to support it secretly or gradually stay away from the sidelines is unflattering on both sides. Whether the CCP army should continue to exercise with the Russian army will be a headache for weighing the political impact. Whether it is really meaningful or not has to be considered.
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Responsible editor: Gao Yi