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Hopefully, what has been taking a long time will finally be good. This is roughly how the mood at NATO headquarters in Brussels can be described today. In May 2022, Sweden submitted its application for NATO membership. But instead of a few months as hoped, the accession process ended up taking almost two years.
All previous NATO states had to agree to join, Turkey and Hungary took forever. But now, after the Hungarian Parliament voted yes, only a few formalities remain. In a few weeks, the Swedish flag is expected to be hoisted in front of NATO headquarters. NATO will then grow from 31 to 32 member states.
The step is politically significant because Sweden was considered neutral for around 200 years and also maintained reasonably good relations with Russia. But the Russian attack against Ukraine has led to a rethink: Instead of neutrality, Sweden will focus on membership in the Western military alliance in the future.
Trump dampens the celebratory mood at NATO headquarters
Sweden has a rather small but powerful armed forces. And thereby strengthens the NATO alliance in Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea region. This in turn is particularly pleasing to the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. They were once part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union – only to join NATO 20 years ago out of fear of Russia.
The celebratory mood at NATO headquarters shouldn’t be too great. This is partly due to Donald Trump, who has a good chance of becoming US President for the second time in 2024 – and thus ruling the most powerful NATO country.
During the election campaign, Trump questioned the core of NATO: the duty to provide assistance. NATO states that spend too little on their armed forces could no longer expect the USA to come to their military aid in the event of an attack. Although the Baltic states and neighboring Poland spend a lot on their defense, Trump’s words also caused uncertainty in these countries.
Ultimately, Trump would be the first head of state in NATO’s 75-year history to explicitly question the obligation to provide assistance. And even if Trump were to acknowledge his duty to provide assistance as president, trust would be damaged.
The trust among the NATO states
Especially since NATO’s strength is ultimately “only” based on trust. On the trust the NATO states have in each other to provide each other with military support. And of trust in the deterrent power of the obligation to provide assistance. So that no one would dare to attack NATO.
However, it is precisely the deterrent power that several governments and secret services of NATO countries question. They warn of a Russian attack.
A test of cohesion?
According to these scenarios, Russian President Vladimir Putin could be tempted to test NATO’s cohesion. So he could occupy an area in the Baltics – to find out whether NATO would really be united and go to war against the nuclear power Russia. Or rather, would fall apart in an argument.
Putin has always rejected such scenarios as ridiculous. But he also always denied ever wanting to attack Ukraine.
The fears about Sweden joining NATO will soon be over – but the fears about the future of the military alliance are greater than ever before.
Sebastian Ramspeck
International correspondent
Open the people box. Close the people box
Sebastian Ramspeck is an international correspondent for SRF. Previously, he was a correspondent in Brussels and worked as a business reporter for the news magazine “10vor10”. Ramspeck studied international relations at the Graduate Institute in Geneva.