Tatiana Stanovaya is the founder of the R. Politik analysis center and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Among the top experts on Russian politics, her analyzes are often based on sources close to the Kremlin.
How has Putin’s plan on the war in Ukraine evolved in recent months?
«At the beginning of the year there was a certain concern regarding the imminent Ukrainian counter-offensive, but now it seems that the alarmism has diminished: the Kremlin appears convinced that no counter-offensive will be able to radically change the situation on the ground. Putin’s plan has therefore remained the same: to wait until the West loses interest in Ukraine, stops supporting it militarily, thus leaving Kyiv to face Russia alone”.
And at that point, Ukraine will only have to surrender…
«In the Kremlin they expect that a “peace party” will take power in Ukraine, which will represent the interests of war-weary society and will seek an agreement with Russia: in fact this will mean the capitulation of Kyiv».
We are witnessing the political rise of Evgeny Prigozhin, who continues to sharply criticize the Russian establishment. How dangerous is the head of Wagner to the elite and to Putin himself?
“Prigozhin has found a political niche and is trying to make it his own. He behaves in a provocative way, creating many problems for the political and military establishment. But all this happens with Putin’s permission and plays in his favor: Prigozhin performs the function of an external stimulus for the system, a kind of electroshock ».
Explain yourself better.
«In recent months, Putin has had a lot of problems with the army: just note the constant changes in military leadership. Putin regards his collaborators with contempt, whom he considers corrupt and flawed, including Defense Minister Shoigu. So what Prigozhin says in part reflects the thought of Putin himself. On the one hand, Putin is a man of the system and as such he doesn’t like it when Prigozhin goes beyond certain limits, but on the other he needs stimuli that “bring the military command into line”.
You wrote that Putin suffers from the “messiah complex”. What does he mean he?
«I mean that Putin is convinced that he has a historic mission and this prevents him from changing his point of view, especially with regard to Ukraine: he sees it as a country that does not exist, while the Russians and Ukrainians as a people unique. These elements will remain constants in Russian politics as long as Putin is in power.
And what consequences could this psychological factor have on the conflict?
“It means that, even if the Ukrainians succeed in the counter-offensive and reconquer part of the occupied territories, I don’t think Putin will agree to sit at the negotiating table with Zelensky: this would go against his conception of ‘historic justice'”.
Putin appears increasingly passive and extraneous to real politics…
“Putin’s role in state affairs will continue to decline. Over time, he will cease to be relevant to the system, he will become a mere attribute of it. This process has already begun: Prigozhin, for example, is already blurring Putin’s role without directly challenging him.”
Are there any other fractures within the Russian elite at the moment?
«There are conflicts between different groups but there is nobody openly against Putin. The elite continues to consolidate around the hawks, it is becoming more and more radicalized together with the repressive apparatus. Those who have doubts about the war can do nothing but shut up or leave Russia. The country is moving towards a totalitarian regime.”