The counting of the votes is still ongoing but the outcome of the Thai elections appears clear: the population has said a clear ‘enough’ to the Prayuth Chan-ocha regime born from the 2014 military coup. The two main opposition parties were the most voted, so much so that they can obtain a majority in the House if in coalition with each other. However, counting on the fact that to form a government it will be necessary to have the support of a Senate appointed by the army, the conservative monarchical establishment will still be able to have its say.
Triumph of the opposition parties
In the evening it was a head-to-head between former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s Puea Thai, strong in its traditional fiefdoms in the countryside in the north, and the progressive Move Forward, which has made inroads among young people and is heading towards an almost “en plein” in the 33 seats up for grabs in the capital Bangkok. In the 400 seats in the Chamber assigned with the majority method, the two parties are virtually tied with about 23% each; but in the list vote, with which the remaining 100 seats will be assigned, the Move Forward has a resounding advantage, with over 31% of the preferences.
Defeat for the outgoing government
For the coalition of the outgoing government, however, a defeat is looming. The third party is the Bhumjaithai, which was part of that alliance; the conservative pole Palang Pracharat has paid dearly for the division between premier Prayuth, whose new party is only fifth in the count, and outgoing vice premier Prawit Wongsuwon, currently fourth. If they were to agree, and have already sent signals for dialogue, the Move Forward and Puea Thai would probably be able to assemble a majority in the House. But for the official results we will have to wait days.
Weeks of negotiations ahead
Above all, weeks of behind-the-scenes negotiations are expected for the votes of the 250 senators appointed by the army, essential to arrive at the election of the prime minister in joint chambers. Already in 2019 those votes allowed Prayuth to build a coalition with various minor parties excluding Puea Thai, the first party at the time. However, the population’s desire for reform is now so overwhelming that excluding the two most popular parties would be a resounding slap to democracy, even in a country where inequalities and abuses by the establishment are traditionally greeted with passivity.
government rebus
However, the desire to remain influential at all costs of the monarchist elite accustomed to commanding, which sees the emergence of the Move Forward as an existential threat, should not be underestimated: in fact, the party is asking to limit the influence of the army and even to reform the lese-majeste law, used to punish pro-democracy activists in a country where the king is considered semi-divine. To get out of this opposition between two camps, a hybrid coalition government could also emerge. Already during the electoral campaign, the hypothesis of an agreement between Thaksin and important exponents of the outgoing government (in particular ex-general Prawit, the great maneuverer of the Senate) was being floated, which would allow the ex prime minister to return from self-exile without passing from prison to serve a sentence dating back to 2008. For twenty years he was the nemesis of conservatives, fearful of being replaced by his field in the apparatus of power. But the fact that the Move Forward, with its radical demands, is declining among the new generations and in the capital, could convince the elite that 73-year-old Thaksin, of the two, is now the lesser evil.