Title: Internal Divisions and Growing Opposition Could Lead to Coup in China, Expert Warns
Date: August 2, 2023
Author: Ling Hao
In a recent article published in the English “Epoch Times,” American international strategy expert Gregory Copley brings attention to internal divisions within the Chinese military and the rising opposition against President Xi Jinping. Copley warns that these factors could potentially lead to a coup d’état in China.
Copley suggests that the Chinese military has made progress in intervening in the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and may stage a low-key coup to stabilize the situation. This intervention could aim to retain the nominal status of Xi Jinping as the party leader while splitting China into different regional factions. It is also possible that the military may present itself as a “savior” of China, rather than just the CCP.
The article highlights that the opposition within the CCP, particularly the faction led by Jiang Zemin, is gaining momentum to prevent Xi Jinping from jeopardizing the party’s stability. It is highly likely that Xi will take precautionary steps to consolidate his power, similar to his actions over the past decade when he eliminated opponents within the party.
Copley points out several recent developments that suggest Xi’s opponents are actively preparing. For instance, the hasty removal of foreign minister Qin Gang in July indicates factionalism within the Xi camp. However, Qin Gang still retained a higher-level position as a state councilor, indicating a delicate balance within the party.
While China faces increasing internal and international disputes, Copley suggests that Xi Jinping may resort to a “distraction war” to maintain his power. This could involve strengthening internal population control or diversion tactics to divert attention from pressing issues.
According to Copley, the Chinese people are caught between the CCP’s propaganda and the reality they experience, leading to a growing discrepancy between “macro data” presented by the government and the public’s “micro perception.” This disconnect is eroding the once-believed linear trajectory of China’s economic and strategic growth.
Copley warns that the first shots of a “new total war” have already been fired, which could have serious global repercussions due to China’s integration into the global economy. While some believe the West’s conflict with Ukraine and Russia is the main focus, Copley suggests it serves as a distraction created by China to divert attention from its own actions and to prevent Western countries, particularly the United States, from focusing on the Indo-Pacific region.
The expert highlights four key reasons why the Chinese military may consider intervening. Firstly, an attack on Taiwan would automatically bring Japan into conflict with China, leaving the CCP vulnerable to attacks on multiple fronts. Secondly, the military is not wholly loyal to Xi Jinping and is influenced by factionalism within the party. Thirdly, the untested strength and technical weaknesses of the Chinese military make starting a major war a risky prospect. Lastly, the military may prefer using cyber operations to strategically degrade adversaries rather than engaging in direct military conflict.
As internal divisions and opposition against Xi Jinping continue to grow, the likelihood of a coup d’état in China remains high, leaving the future of the country uncertain.