Tramp is a Spanish word that translates, roughly, optical illusion: the danger of the advance of Voxwaiting for it post-Franco specterhas remained in the alarm of political opponents, in the exorcisms of some European chancellery, in the headlines of the newspapers conquered by the shootings of the leader of the party painted green, Santiago Abascal. The far right – with its baggage of xenophobia, anti-feminism, anti-LGBT crusades, denial of climate change, nostalgia for the Caudillo – will not conquer the national government in Spain. If indeed the march of the sovereign forces was to find confirmation in the Iberian country, as a crossroads and laboratory in view of the European elections next year, this test of voting has turned into a stop at the autogrill. Vox fares worse than 2019, loses about twenty seats and the Moncloa – the seat of government in Madrid – he currently sees through binoculars. “Thanks to all of Spain because we have shown that we are a strong and clean democracy” claims the outgoing prime minister Pedro Sanchez.
It was actually known from before election day that Vox could only (and eventually) come to power thanks to the People’s Partyannounced winner of Policies. However, the success of the leader of the PP Alberto Núñez Feijóowhich until now has governed (for a long time) the Galicia, it is indisputable as is mathematics but in the Spanish Congress it becomes very small. The fact that he led the moderate right party to overtake the socialists of Sánchez it’s only good for pride. There hasn’t been any ola azul, no blue wave, as happened just two months ago, in the local elections at the end of May which led Sànchez to the decision to resign and call this early vote. That move that could have seemed rash – or at least useless in the face of an apparently inevitable electoral disaster – in hindsight today seems to have achieved the target sought by the socialist leader: to stop the right. Indeed, the PSOE has even improved its result compared to 4 years ago, even if only by 2 seats. The percentages – to read it in Italian – say that the Pp and the Psoe are both just above 32, divided by a few decimals. From a catastrophe to a breakeven.
The electoral campaign hurt Feijòo more than expected and as perhaps Sànchez had glimpsed instead. The president of the Popular Party has often been a victim of himself, even with comical effects, such as when at a rally he supported a certain rule of two in economics and wrapped up saying that “oh well, instead of two it’s 22, which is two times ten” or again – on the last day before the electoral silence – when he wanted to tell that he had visited the Mediterranean coast, Huelvawhich is far beyond Gibraltar. It was complicated, then, to wriggle free from the story of friendship with Martial Dorado, Galician drug trafficker sentenced to 14 years. The photos – dating back to about twenty years ago – of the two of them together on a boat bounced around in the newspapers for days: in the end, the popular leader was unable to defend himself better than with the thesis that at the time Dorado was “just” a smuggler. But above all, Feijòò had to spend a lot of energy to shake off the suspicion that he really liked to ally with Vox, so much so that at one point he said flatly that in case of need he would not seek Abascal’s votes but “about twenty” socialist ones.
On the other hand, Sànchez expended himself on a mobilization of the people of the left after the “lesson” of the administrations had passed from abstention. The progressive front has for weeks set the accent on the fact that the country would exist with the right come backinstead of moving forward. “Forward” was the main slogan of the PSOE. “España advances” another claim: civil rights, social rights, gender issues, the environment, the implication. In the last few days of the campaign, the television duel between Abascal and the male chauvinist e Yolanda Diazthe leader of summer ex communist, feminist, champion of labor reform who – between lights and shadows – pushed the occupation. “Spain and all its citizens have been very clear – repeated Sànchez again in the middle of the night – The political bloc of involution, of back to the past and repeal all of our breakthroughs over the past four years have failed. The Popular Party and Vox bloc came out defeated, there are many more of us who we want to advance“. But the progressive front has suffered a lot in recent months to the point of pushing Pablo Iglesias, the former leader of Podemos who however always hovers as a political commentator, asking the devil’s question: “How is it possible to lose the elections even when things are going well?”, referring to the economic data. An answer lies carved in the inflation that bites, in the rise in prices, which does not depend on the government but which inevitably takes shape in the interviews in the street markets that fill TV, radio and newspapers. The last stumbling block about ten days ago when a document from the Pnrr came out which provides that from 2024 the motorways will be subject to payment: the director of the company confirmed, the government denied embarrassed, but the sign on the electoral race remained.
The end result is that – polls closed – the Spain it is found in the clothes that Italy usually wears: at the moment there is no majority capable of supporting a government with 176 votes. The popular deputies added to those of Vox and a small party from Navarre would reach 170, the socialists with all their large and small allies with whom they have governed in recent years (starting from summerthe new single subject of the left which also includes We can) do not go beyond 172. The stalemate, the almost perfect balance between two fronts that in this electoral campaign have done everything to be seen as irreconcilable is photographed in very high resolution just before midnight, when at the same time in Madrid they celebrate both under the headquarters of the People’s Party in calle Genova and outside the headquarters of the Socialist Party, in calle Ferraz.
What will happen from Monday remains to be understood. The popular Feijòo expects to be appointed president by the King Felipe VI because it is his party that has arrived primo. “As the candidate of the most voted party, I believe that my duty is to open dialogue, guide this dialogue and try to govern our country – he says – Our duty is to avoid a period of uncertainty. I formally ask that no one be tempted to block Spain again”. The Galician governor could go to seek votes in Parliamentbut the road is impervious to say the least because the Spanish Congress is dotted with parties regional, autonomists e independentists that especially in some Regions they see with horror a government with i popular (who were in government at the time of the referendum in Catalonia). Or else he will have to face a challenge that is so impossible this time, almost a blasphemy: proposing broad agreements to Sànchez, who however he has substantially built an entire political career on the refusal of an agreement with the right (he resigned as party leader precisely so as not to be forced to do so).
The second path instead leads, again, to the socialist leader, who since this election – in the progressive camp – has received a reconfirmation that blinds him as leader, within the party and within the coalition that has governed Spain up to now. The seats of the centre-left – let’s call it that – would rise to 179 (i.e. 3 more than necessary) if the match were also Together for Cataloniathe Catalan independence coalition led by Carlos Puigdemontwho as known has been a “fugitive” for a long time after the investigations and trials of independence activists for the 2017 referendum. “We will not make him premier in exchange for nothing” they say from Barcelona. Sànchez’s mandate was also marked by his mandate for reconciliation and negotiations with the various pro-independence sensibilities. In this case, however, the bar would be raised a little higher. If none of these mechanisms work, all that will remain is the emergency exit that Spain has already taken a couple of times: the return to the polls.