Every reporter Tan Yuhan Cai Ding Every editor Tan Yuhan
Britain’s longest-reigning monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, died this week, marking the end of an era. His son Charles was officially sworn in on September 10, and the Queen’s funeral will be held on the 19th of this month. How will life in the UK change after the Queen’s death? Where will the monarchy and the Commonwealth go?
Europe is still in the quagmire of the energy crisis. After the supply of Beixi No. 1 was completely cut off, the basic industry was the first to bear the brunt, but the natural gas price limit negotiations were fruitless. Winter is coming, what will Europe do? Lee Hardman, currency analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for 200 days. The Ukrainian army launched a major counteroffensive this week and has entered Izyum in the Donbas region. The Russian Defense Ministry said it had evacuated troops from the Izyum and Balakleya regions to Donetsk.
On the economic front, Musk said his SpaceX and Apple have negotiated the use of the Starlink space internet to support the iPhone’s satellite communications capabilities. Buffett continued to sweep Western oil this week; under the panic, US stocks staged a capital flight this week. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike in September may be a foregone conclusion, and interest rates may be about to exceed 3% for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.
More content, all in “Weekly International Finance”.
Queen dies, Charles III ascends the throne
Where are the monarchy and the Commonwealth headed?
Image source: Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Han Yan
On September 8, 2022, local time, Buckingham Palace announced that Queen Elizabeth II died at Balmoral Castle in Scotland at the age of 96.
After the Queen’s death, the arrangements for future generations are also pre-arranged“Operation London Bridge”developed in an orderly manner.
His son, 73-year-old Prince of Wales, was officially sworn in on September 10, local time, and the official title is“King Charles III”.Queen’sfuneralDetermined in local timeSeptember 19th11 in LondonWestminster Abbeyheld.
According to Xinhua News Agency, after the death of Queen Elizabeth II, people in the UK and some Commonwealth countries will feel many changes in their lives.
Portraits will eventually be replaced
The Bank of England said in a statement on the 8th that banknotes bearing the portrait of Queen Elizabeth II “will remain legal tender”. The Bank of England will issue a new announcement on banknotes after the mourning period ends.
According to British media reports, the total face value of banknotes with the Queen’s portrait in circulation in the UK isaround £80 billion(about 642.53 billion yuan).If replaced with banknotes bearing the portrait of the new monarch, it mayat least two years。
According to the tradition of the monarch’s face in the portrait of the British monarch contrary to the previous one, the new version of the coin hasKing Charles III’s head will be turned to the left.Currently, the Royal Mint Advisory CommitteeWork has started on recommending a new coin style to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. In addition, the portrait of Queen Elizabeth II also appears on the currency of some Commonwealth countries. After her death, these currencies will also be updated successively.
Monarch title update
The current name of the UK national anthem is “God Save the Queen”. Since the passport is issued in the name of the royal family, the references to the monarch in the wording on the inside pages are also “Her Majesty the Queen”.With the succession of Charles III, the British national anthem and passport“Queen”the word will also be changed to“king”。
In addition, in the United Kingdom, originally involving“Her Majesty the Queen”The names of government agencies, oaths and titles of parliamentarians, etc. will be changed to“His Majesty the King”the guards guarding outside Buckingham Palace no longer belong to the “Queen’s Guard”.
royal emblem changes
As the English acronym of Queen Elizabeth II,“EⅡR”It is the emblem of the British royal family and appears on many occasions such as British mailboxes, stamps, postmarks, police flags and helmets, and logos used by fire departments. In the future, the existing mailbox will continue to remain,But new products bearing the royal emblem will use the new version of the emblem。
Where are the monarchy and the Commonwealth headed?
From the industrial age to the Internet age, Queen Elizabeth II has gone through World War II and the Cold War, witnessed the financial crisis and the “Brexit” of the United Kingdom, experienced the change of 15 British Prime Ministers, and played a very important role in the development of the United Kingdom.an important force in maintaining the “stability” of the UK。
Since her accession in 1952, the Queen has ruled the Commonwealth for 70 years and is the longest-reigning British monarch.Under the leadership of Queen Elizabeth II, the CommonwealthFrom 8 member states to 56 today.
Queen Elizabeth II has won the support of many people in the Commonwealth of Nations with her wisdom. The Commonwealth described in the announcement when the Queen died,“A light has gone out”。
In recent years, as one of the kingdoms of the Commonwealth of Nations,Australia has begun to explore the road to republic. A number of senior Australian officials have expressed hope that Australia will become a republic and break away from the Commonwealth after the abdication of Queen Elizabeth II.
On November 30 last year, Pacific Island countriesBarbados officially secedes from the CommonwealthTo become a republic, Sandra Mason, who previously served as governor of Pakistan, was sworn in as the country’s first president, replacing Queen Elizabeth II as the new head of state.
And the problems after the Queen’s death don’t stop there.In addition to England, several other parts of the UK arehas been independent, especially Scotland, which also held an independence referendum in 2014. Now, the Queen’s death could lead to accelerated independence for regions led by Scotland, putting Britain under pressure to divide.
At present, under the challenges of the continued impact of the new crown epidemic, high inflation and extreme weather and energy crises in Europe, the answer to where the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth will go without the Queen is still unknown.
The Guardian wrote in a report that Queen Elizabeth II is the link between contemporary Britain and the “empire on which the sun never sets”. If this bond is broken, where will Britain go?This is a problem that no one can predict。
European basic industries hit hard by energy crisis
Analyst: Natural gas prices will rise further
Image source: Visual China-VCG111380970820
According to Xinhua News Agency, a special meeting of EU energy ministers was held in Brussels, Belgium on the 9th to discuss how to deal with soaring energy prices to survive the “hard winter”.
But around Russianatural gas price capthe opinions differ from country to country,There are big differences。
Energy costs in Europe are already much higher than in Asia and the United States after Russia cut gas supplies to the continent.The British “Financial Times” reported on September 7, local time, that the price of natural gas in Europe has soared to the average level of the previous 10 years.12 times or so。
With the complete cut-off of “North Stream No. 1”, the industry most sensitive to the interruption of natural gas supply has suffered a severe impact.wave of production cutsSpread this week.
On the 6th local time, France’s Dunkirk Aluminium, Europe’s largest aluminium smelter, announced a 22% cut in production. Norwegian aluminum company Hydro also said it was preparing to close a smelter in Slovakia at the end of this month. Finland’s Outokumpu, one of Europe’s largest stainless producers, said on Tuesday it would delay restarting a ferrochromium smelter because of “unusually high” electricity prices.
European metals industry players warn of energy crisis for futureposes an “existential threat”in the absence of urgent EU action, many executives worry about many smeltersAt risk of permanent closure。
“We are deeply concerned that the coming winter could be fatal to many of our businesses, and we call on EU and member state leaders to take urgent action to protect their strategic electricity-intensive industries and prevent permanent job losses.” Eurometaux on the eve of the summit in a letter from the European non-ferrous metals industryLetter signed by 40 CEOswrote in.
“The profit outlook for next year is likely to become much more difficult as companies start to lose their pricing power,” strategists including Morgan Stanley strategist Graham Secker wrote in a note. Our margin leading indicator shows thatEuropean companies’ profit margins to fall by the most since 2008 global financial crisis。”
“The measures on the Russian side have added to the downside of the European economy and the euro,” Lee Hardman, a currency analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said in an email to the “Daily Economic News” reporter. Risk. In our estimation,If the natural gas supply of “North Stream-1” is not restored, in the next 12 months, the natural gas supply in Europe will be reduced by 30 million cubic meters per day.The development will further fuel Europeans’ fears that higher energy prices and the rising risk of rationing this winter will lead to greater demand damage. ” Hardman sees further rise in gas prices in Europe。
The Ukrainian army’s counter-offensive has entered the Donbass area!
Zelensky: Over 1,000 square kilometers of territory have been recaptured!
Image source: CCTV News
India imposes 20% tariff on some rice
or exacerbate the food crisis
Image source: Photo Network_500784300
According to CCTV news, the relevant Indian departments issued an announcement saying that starting from September 9, rice other than parboiled rice and basmati rice will be banned.20% export taxinvolving categories such as unmilled rice, hulled brown rice, semi-polished rice and fully-polished rice, and prohibits the export of broken rice to ensure domestic supply.
India’s rice production is on a downward trend, mainly due to drought in four states, grain officials said.
It is worth noting that India is the second largest rice producer and the largest rice exporter in the world,accounting for nearly 40% of global rice trade。
The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a report in August saying,Global rice supply forecast to fall by 4.1 million tonnes in 2022-23, to 697.3 million tonnes, mainly due to lower production in Bangladesh and India. For the global crop trade market, India’s imposition of tariffs on these types of rice exports could mean an escalation of global “food protectionism”.
India has been the largest exporter of rice for quite some time in the past.Any restrictions on rice exports by India are likely to boost global rice prices, at the moment when food prices are soaring, a supply crisis is induced, resulting in more serious food inflation. Billions of people around the world who depend on rice as their staple food will be affected.
Will Starlink support iPhone satellite communication?
Musk says he has negotiated with Apple
September 9 news, on Thursday, local time in the United States, Tesla CEO Elon Musk (Elon Musk) confirmed that his space company SpaceX and AppleAlready in talks to use Starlink space internet to support iPhone satellite communications capabilities。
Musk mentioned the potential partnership on Twitter.He said the two companies have “Hopeful Conversation”, and called Apple’s iPhone team “super smart.” It is unclear whether negotiations are still ongoing.
Musk added: “For sure,If cell phone software and hardware adapt to space-based signals, instead of letting Starlink purely simulate cellular signals, then a closed-loop connection from space to mobile phones will work best. “
The day before, Apple announced at the fall new product launch that iPhone 14 series launches emergency SOS satellite emergency servicewhich will allow iPhone 14 users to use satellite networks to connect to emergency services in areas without cellular.
Meanwhile, U.S. satellite communications company Globalstar said in a recent regulatory filing that it had reached a partnership agreement with Apple to act as a signal operator for the latter’s satellite communications capabilities.
Buffett Continues to Sweep Occidental Oil
The shareholding ratio has exceeded 1/4
According to an announcement on Occidental Petroleum’s official website on Friday (September 9), Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s shareholding in Occidental Petroleum has beenmore than 1/4increased to 26.8%.
The last increase was announced on Aug. 8, when Berkshire’s stake in Occidental stood at 20.2%.This means that in just one month, Buffett put this numberincreased by at least 5 percentage points。
Buffett has been expanding his stake in the oil company this year. On August 19, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved Berkshire’s acquisition of Occidental Petroleum shares on the grounds that it is “in the public interest”, and the shareholding ratio in the secondary marketup to 50%。
The U.S. energy sector has been hot since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and pushed up oil prices.Occidental oil shares have held up this year despite recent oil price falls back to pre-Russian-Ukrainian conflictmore than doubled。
U.S. stocks fled as much as $11 billion in one week
Fed rate may top 3% for first time since 2008
According to data from EPFR Global cited by Bank of America, in the week ended September 7, the cumulative outflow of US stock funds reached 10.9 billion US dollars (about 75 billion yuan).Largest in 11 weeks. Global stock funds outflows amounted to $14.5 billion (about 100 billion yuan) in a week.
In this regard, Bank of America strategists said that soaring inflation, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and rising real interest rates in the United States are the main reasons for investors to flee the stock market. As the Fed’s September meeting on interest rates approaches, the assessment of monetary policy will continue to be a turbulent factor for US stocks.
Since this week, the Fed’s “rate hike storm” warnings have been particularly intensive. Among them, Powell emphasized that the Fed’s efforts to fight inflation will “not stop until the target is achieved.” In order to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched as in the 1970s, the Fed is doing its best to reduce the inflation rate,will not ease policy prematurely。
“While the Fed has officially entered a period of silence ahead of this month’s policy meeting, a series of speeches by Fed Chairman Powell this week strongly suggest that the FOMC will raise rates by 75 basis points. Amid peaking inflation and growing signs of slowing economic growth At the same time, the Fed will continue to tighten policy, Bob Schwartz, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, said in a comment email sent to the “Daily Economic News” reporter earlier.
It is worth noting that if the interest rate is really raised by 75 basis points in September, the interest rate will rise from the current range of 2.25%-2.5% to more than 3%.This is the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.
Polio or a comeback?
New York State declares disaster emergency
According to CCTV news, on September 9, local time, the governor of New York State declared a state of emergency for the state of New York because of the detection of polio virus in wastewater samples in the suburbs near New York City.
poliopoliowas one of the most terrifying diseases in America,Can lead to paralysis and even death. About three-quarters of people with polio have no symptoms, but they can still spread the virus to others, the CDC said.
This week, the situation of the new crown epidemic in the United States and Japan is still serious. According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the 11th local time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States has exceeded 95 million, and the cumulative number of deaths has exceeded 1.05 million.
A total of more than 20 million cases have been diagnosed in Japan, with a total of 42,000 deaths.New crown deaths appear in parts of Japan due to the rapid increase in the number of deaths recentlyDifficulty in cremationCase.
In addition, according to Fox News reported on September 8, the number of monkeypox cases in the United States has exceeded 21,000, and a second death has occurred.In recent weeks, among U.S. monkeypox patients,The proportion of infected people of African descent continues to rise。
Image source: Every drawing
Image source: Every drawing
Reporter | Tan Yuhan Cai Ding
Editor | Tan Yuhan
Vision|Liu Qingyan
Typesetting | Tan Yuhan
Source of cover image: Photo Network_501466028