[Epoch Times, March 04, 2022](Epoch Times reporter Cheng Jing comprehensive report) Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine last Thursday (February 24), and it is still stalled in a tug-of-war in major Ukrainian cities today. . According to expert analysis, a war that originally seemed to be a “great disparity in strength” may make Russia mired in the quagmire of war. The United States is also preparing for the possibility that the Chinese Communist Party may take advantage of the false invasion of Taiwan.
Putin misjudges the situation, plans to ‘end the fighting in a few days’ shattered
Today (March 4) is the ninth day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Russian army opened fire on Ukraine’s largest European nuclear power plant in all directions. The fire was finally extinguished, and it was initially estimated that no nuclear radiation was released. The United Nations today strongly condemned the actions of the Russian military.
At present, the Russian army’s attack on major cities in Ukraine is still at a standstill. “No one would have thought that the first week of the war would end like this,” said Pavel K. Baev, an expert at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.
“This war never had a chance to go as planned,” Bayev said at a Brookings Institution symposium this week, VOA reported.
After a months-long military buildup on the Russian-Ukrainian border, the war that was originally “prosperous” seems to have no suspense, but Russia’s vision of “driving straight into a few days to end the battle” has not been realized.
Steven Pifer, the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said at the discussion that Putin had grossly underestimated Ukrainians’ resolve to share the same hatred. He seems to have misjudged the situation, believing that the Russians would soon take the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
Agence France-Presse quoted US experts as saying that Russia had clearly made strategic and tactical mistakes in the first few days of the war. It was expected that the Russian army would quickly destroy Ukraine’s counterattack capabilities and destroy the Ukrainian army’s command and control capabilities, but these expectations did not. Not fulfilled.
Expert: Russia is likely to be in the quagmire of war
A few days ago, satellite images captured a 64-kilometer convoy of Russian troops about 40 kilometers northwest of Kiev, but they have yet to capture Kyiv. Senior U.S. defense officials said the Russian convoy was stopped because of severe shortages of fuel and food.
RAND Corp senior defense analyst Scott Boston said it might be understandable if it took two or three weeks for an intrusion to go awry, “but if you’re walking in the door and you’re screwed, then it’s something else. Forget it.”
According to the Voice of America report, there are various indications that the Russian army has been unfavorable and seriously underestimated Ukraine’s determination to resist. This war is very likely to plunge Russia into the quagmire of war.
Pifer, who was deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs for Russia and Ukraine (2001-2004), believes that even if Russia captures some Ukrainian cities, the fighting is likely to continue.
Pifer pointed out that Russia still maintains a significant advantage in the number of troops and modern weapons, and it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to win. But, he said, even if Russia achieves its biggest goal of capturing Kyiv, ousting the current government and creating a pro-Russian government, what will happen next?
“The Russians are probably gearing up for a prolonged occupation and in many cases armed Ukrainians are full of hostile anger, which can be pretty ugly,” he said. “I think the Ukrainians will continue to resist.”
How many died on both sides?Russia accused of tricking soldiers into battle
For nearly 10 days of war, Ukraine has been reporting casualties on both sides, but Russia has been silent. The New York Times said that no one knows how many Russian soldiers were killed.
On Wednesday (March 2), Russia announced its casualty figures for the first time, saying that 498 soldiers were killed and 1,597 wounded in the line of duty. On the Ukrainian resistance side, more than 2,870 people were killed and about 3,700 wounded.
However, Ukraine previously said that the Ukrainian army killed more than 5,300 Russian soldiers. Both figures are yet to be confirmed.
VOA said that the morale of the Russian military is widely regarded as extremely low. Military expert Bayev pointed out that at least half of the Russian army’s personnel are young conscripts. They were expected to retire within three or four months, and were told that they were going to conduct military exercises. Now participating in the war, they are facing fierce competition. street fighting.
Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations, Sergei Kislitya, read the last text message from a Russian soldier to his mother at the UN General Assembly on Monday, The New York Times reported. He said the photos were obtained by Ukrainian troops after the soldier was killed.
“We were told they would welcome us, but they fell under our armored car, got under the wheels, and wouldn’t let us pass,” Kislitzya read. “They call us fascists. Mom, it’s too hard. already.”
On Tuesday (March 1), a senior Pentagon official said that some Russian troops had stopped fighting and laid down their weapons after encountering an unusually strong Ukrainian defense. Some Russian troops drilled holes in the fuel tanks of vehicles, presumably to avoid fighting, the official said.
Pentagon officials and military analysts said it was surprising, especially given that Russian soldiers left behind the bodies of their comrades.
On Monday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov offered five million rubles in cash and a full amnesty if Russian soldiers surrendered. The Ukrainian government has also launched a website aimed at helping Russian families find information on soldiers who may have been killed or captured.
How long will the war go on?US warns CCP again
At present, Russia and Ukraine have started negotiations. On Thursday (March 3), Kyiv and Moscow announced the end of a second round of talks, agreeing on the form of a mechanism for a humanitarian corridor to support the evacuation of citizens.
But Putin does not appear to be interested in negotiations. Angela E. Stent, a former member of the advisory panel of the NATO Supreme Commander, told the Brookings Institution: “A former culture minister from Russia was appointed to lead the delegation, and I think that Suffice it to say how serious they are about negotiating.”
Some analysts believe that Russia is facing fierce resistance from Ukraine and the most severe international sanctions in history. “There is much help for the righteous, and there is little help for the lost.” The Russian economy almost returned to the collapse of the Soviet Union in a few days.
Regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war, the CCP has an ambiguous attitude. It has always been reluctant to condemn Russia, and has not taken any substantive action to stop the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has been questioned by many parties.
The New York Times recently exposed that the CCP leaked U.S. intelligence to Russia and knew that Russia had invaded Ukraine. Cheng Qinmo, director of the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Relations at Tamkang University in Taiwan, told The Epoch Times that the CCP’s attitude will make people think that the CCP has been tied to Russia.
On Wednesday, a number of Republican senators in the U.S. Congress proposed the latest bill, saying the U.S. would impose severe financial sanctions on the Chinese government “if Xi wants to emulate Putin’s invasion” or block Taiwan, or attempt to use force to change the status quo of Taiwan’s governance.
Earlier this week, a senior bipartisan delegation from U.S. President Joe Biden visited Taiwan, demonstrating that the Biden administration’s greater commitment to Taiwan remains rock-solid to clamor and harass Taiwan against the CCP’s continued “military reunification.” Almost at the same time, former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also visited Taiwan to show his support for Taiwan and warn the CCP.
Responsible editor: Li Yuan#