Il 14 maggio it will be a decisive date for the history of Türkiye. One hundred years after the birth of Republicvoters are called to renew the Parliament and to elect the next president. The main challengers for the post of head of state are Recep Tayyip Erdoganleader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the helm of the country for twenty years, e Kemal Kilicdaroglu, secretary of the Kemalist-inspired republican formation (chp). Two other politicians are also aspiring to the office of president, Muharrem Ince e Sinan Ogan, whose chances of winning, however, are decidedly low, according to the polls of the last few weeks. The challenge will therefore be between Erdogan e Kilicdaroglutwo very different men both temperamentally and politically, with different visions on the future of Türkiye and on the management of power itself. The latest polls reveal the indecision of young people and a slight advantage for the incumbent president. According to the survey carried out by al-Monitor and Premise Data, 11.3% of young people have not yet decided who to vote for and support for one or the other candidate will certainly be decisive when separating Erdogan e Kilicdaroglu it’s just a few points. Always second al-Monitorthe outgoing president should get 45.2% of the preferences, against 44.9% for the leader of the Chp. The result of the elections, therefore, is not at all obvious and even a handful of votes could be decisive for the future of the Türkiye.
Erdogan’s Turkey – The outgoing president, leader of the AKP, has been in power for over twenty years now. His first term as prime minister dates back to 2002 and he has already held the office of president twice, from 2014 to today. However, the Supreme Electoral Council allowed him to run again for what would effectively be a third term, thus in violation of the limit imposed by the Constitutionstarting to count his offices from 2017 onwards, the year of the constitutional reform that transformed the Türkiye in a presidential republic. To support the candidacy of Erdogan it is once again the nationalist far-right party Mhpbut in this electoral round the outgoing president has also decided to ally with Huda Parthe far-right Kurdish-Sunni party, and with the New Welfare Party (Yrp) Of Fatih Erbakanson of the current president’s mentor and leader of political Islam Necebettin Erbakan. L’Huda Par he is the heir to Turkish Hezbollah (which he has no connection with Hezbollah Shia of the Lebanon), and is known for terrorizing left-wing Kurdish communities in the late 1990s; the YRP, on the other hand, is feared by a part of Turkish society for its particularly misogynistic positions. In exchange for this alliance, Fatih Erbakan asked Erdogan to cancel the law n. 6284 which protects women against gender violence and prevents the phenomenon of “child brides”.
In his electoral program, however, Erdogan has deliberately left out this detail, instead promising a bright future to its voters. Specifically, the outgoing president has pledged to reduce inflation and costs of energy thanks to the new deposit of Nero sea gas and at the central nuclear just inaugurated; to increase exports and turismo; to offer a variety of concessions garlic studentsat families and the poorest segments of the population. Instead, he promised new homes to those affected by the earthquake of February 6 by the end of the year. The strengthening of the economy and greater independence on the energy plan they are also useful for pursuing one more assertive foreign policy and which allows the president to increase the role of the Türkiye in the international arena. To achieve this goal Erdogan he also intends to continue focusing on defense, an expansion sector supported by the president and which has recorded significant growth in recent years. To the great satisfaction of the Turkish leader, who also played his electoral campaign on dronesjet, helicopters and aircraft carriers built entirely or nearly entirely from national industries.
Kılıçdaroğlu e il Tavolo dei sei – Main challenger of Erdogan And Kemal Kilicdaroglusecretary of the Chp of 2010 and candidate of the so-called Table of six, formed by parties ranging from the center-left to the nationalist right. Considered a man of calm and conciliatory tones, Kilicdaroglu he is not a particularly charismatic politician but he has managed to win the trust of the voters thanks to a very different character and lifestyle compared to the outgoing president. In Türkiye it is also known by the name of “Gandhi turco” for organizing a 2017 “Justice March” in response to the politically motivated arrest of his deputy, Enis Berberoglu. On that occasion Kilicdaroglu he walked 450 kilometers going from Ankara a Istanbul and organizing several rallies along his way thanks to which he managed to increase his popularity.
The lack of charisma however, he had initially endangered his leadership within the coalition, even though eventually all the parties in the Table accepted him as their candidate. The deputies of Kilicdarogluin case of victory, will be two popular figures from the opposition: the mayor of Ankara, Mansur Slowand the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamogluboth of Chp. To support the candidacy of Kilicdaroglualbeit indirectly, is also the pro-Kurdish party Hdpwhich has decided not to present its own exponent for the position of president. What unites all these parties is the desire to end the era Erdogan and to return to the parliamentary system, restoring the balance between powers of the state and guaranteeing citizens those rights which Erdogan has instead increasingly reduced. All measures that should bring the Türkiye to Europe and allow the reopening of the negotiating table for the accession of Ankara to the Union. Economically, Kilicdaroglu he promised a major instead orthodoxy and the abandonment of the monetary policies imposed by Erdogan, also restoring the autonomy of the Central bank. In foreign policy, however, the opposition leader promises a rapprochement with the Natowhile maintaining a “balanced and constructive” relationship with the Russia and continuing to put national interests first.
The other candidates and the polls – They are also contending for the office of president Muharrem Inceex leader del Chp and founder of the Homeland Party, e Sinan Ogan, a long-time member of the MHP and supported by a coalition of right-wing nationalist parties. Neither of them will reach particularly significant percentages, but their vote indications for a possible second round could determine the outcome of the polls. İnceat around 8%, is having particular success among young people, the segment of the population in which there is still the highest number of undecided.