(Original title: Sudden! The United States warned: San Francisco entered a state of health emergency! What happened? The economy fell into a “technical recession”, how big is the impact? 40,000 people in the UK go on strike)
Both the U.S. economy and the pandemic are facing enormous uncertainty.
The first is that there are early warning signs of recession in the U.S. economy. On July 28, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the U.S. real GDP in the second quarter was -0.9% quarter-on-quarter. It means that the US GDP has recorded negative values for two consecutive quarters, which is in line with the standard of “technical recession”. In the evening of the same day, US stocks withstood the threat of recession and staged a deep V rebound during the session. The Dow rose by more than 626 points. In the end, the three major indexes closed up collectively. The Dow rose 1.02%, the S&P 500 rose 1.21%, and the Nasdaq rose. 1.08%.
At the same time, the United States is facing the test of the rapid spread of monkeypox. According to the latest data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1,048 new cases of monkeypox were newly diagnosed in the United States in a single day, breaking the global record for new cases of monkeypox in a single day. s country. On July 27, local time, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that it plans to list the rapidly spreading monkeypox as a “nationally notifiable disease.” In addition, San Francisco Mayor London Breed issued a statement on July 28 declaring that the city of San Francisco entered a state of health emergency.
The ongoing British Prime Minister election has also encountered “big trouble”. According to CCTV news, on Wednesday local time, British Railways held a general strike. More than 40,000 workers went on strike for 24 hours. Half of the British railway network was forced to close, and only 20% of the British train services remained in operation. Another union has also decided to strike again on August 13.
Economy in ‘technical recession’
The US economy once again sounded the “recession alarm”.
U.S. economic growth continued to contract in the second quarter due to rising inflation and supply chain disruptions. On July 28, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the actual U.S. GDP in the second quarter was -0.9% quarter-on-quarter, expected to be 0.4%, and the previous value -1.6%. The data recorded a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter of this year, which means that the US GDP has recorded negative values for two consecutive quarters, which meets the standard definition of “technical recession”.
Specifically, U.S. business and government spending and residential investment fell, and inventories also weighed on GDP. In these signs, inflation has eroded Americans’ purchasing power and the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy has weakened interest-rate-sensitive industries such as real estate.
It should be pointed out that most economists currently believe that “technical recession” is not the only criterion for defining a recession in the United States, and it is still necessary to continue to observe the trend of various data in the future.
On the eve of the data disclosure, several major banks, including Barclays, Bank of America and UBS, and Moody’s believed that U.S. GDP would contract for the second time in the second quarter. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast shows that U.S. GDP will contract by 1.2% in the second quarter.
At the same time, there are warning signals from the U.S. job market. On July 28, local time, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to July 23 recorded 256,000, a new high since the week of November 13, 2021. It is expected to be 250,000, and the previous value was 251,000.
Subsequently, U.S. President Biden issued a statement saying that the U.S. economy experienced historic growth last year, and employment in the private sector regained all the ground lost during the epidemic. After this, as the Federal Reserve takes action to reduce inflation, the economic slowdown is not enough. Strange.
In the early morning of July 29, Beijing time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen held a press conference on the economic situation. She said that it did see a significant slowdown in economic growth, but the U.S. economy was still resilient and did not see a significant economic slowdown. Slipping, nor seeing a significant reduction in employment, the U.S. economy is transitioning toward steady and sustainable growth. She also pointed out that there are many challenges ahead and inflation is too high. There are also plenty of risks looming, many of which are global.
Although the pace of the Fed’s rate hikes will largely depend on the path of inflation, the U.S. stock market seems to believe that slowing U.S. economic growth may prompt the Fed to give up on aggressive rate hikes. This may be one of the main reasons why U.S. stocks reversed the trend that night.
US emergency warning
At present, the monkeypox epidemic is still spreading rapidly in the United States.
On July 27, local time, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said it planned to list the rapidly spreading monkeypox as a “nationally notifiable disease” and asked states across the country to share surveillance data, including the number of cases.
In addition, San Francisco Mayor London Breed issued a statement on July 28 declaring that the city of San Francisco entered a state of health emergency. The San Francisco Department of Public Health has confirmed more than 260 monkeypox cases in the city, accounting for nearly one-third of California’s monkeypox cases, according to the statement; New York state declared monkeypox “an imminent threat to public health,” according to the ABC.
Behind the sudden tension in the US government is the rapid increase in the number of confirmed cases of monkeypox in the United States. According to the latest data released by the CDC’s official website, 1,048 new cases of monkeypox were newly diagnosed in the United States from the 26th to the 27th, breaking the current global record for new single-day new cases and bringing the total number of confirmed cases of monkeypox in the United States to 4,639. , surpassing Spain to become the country with the most confirmed cases of monkeypox in the world.
According to the analysis of relevant experts in the United States, the main reason for the sharp rise in the number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States in a single day is that a large number of tests have been carried out across the United States, and previously undiscovered confirmed cases have been screened.
The CDC said in a letter to state epidemiologists that starting Aug. 1, monkeypox will be listed as a “nationally notifiable disease,” according to a senior U.S. government official and two people familiar with the matter. States must report confirmed or probable cases of monkeypox within 24 hours.
A CDC spokesperson said the move is to give it a better understanding of the extent and speed of the virus’ spread, even after the outbreak subsides, and making monkeypox a national notifiable disease will allow public health authorities to continue to monitor and respond to it.
It was previously reported that the U.S. government was discussing whether to declare the monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency and how to strengthen the response in the future. However, US media reported that a senior government official revealed that the US government will not announce the decision for the time being, and listing monkeypox as a “nationally notified disease” is the first step.
White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci has warned that monkeypox poses a “serious risk” to groups including pregnant women and children.
In the face of the menacing monkeypox epidemic, the Biden administration has begun to consider funding to fight the epidemic. The Biden administration privately assessed to Congress this month that, depending on the “scope and urgency of the current situation,” nearly $7 billion could be needed to respond to the current outbreak, according to an administration memo obtained by the media.
Among them, the monkeypox vaccine is one of the important weapons in the United States‘ fight against the epidemic, and it also needs financial support the most. On July 27, local time, U.S. health regulators said nearly 800,000 doses of the monkeypox vaccine would soon be available for distribution after weeks of delays.
From a global perspective, the monkeypox epidemic continues to spread. The latest WHO data shows that more than 18,000 monkeypox cases have been reported in 78 countries around the world, most of them in Europe.
According to CCTV news, Australia’s chief medical officer Paul Kelly announced on the 28th that the monkeypox epidemic was listed as a major national infectious disease event. This means that national policies, interventions, public information or resources are needed to help jurisdictions affected by monkeypox outbreaks. There have been 44 confirmed cases of monkeypox in Australia so far.
‘Big Trouble’ in UK Prime Minister Election
The ongoing British Prime Minister election has encountered its biggest focus.
The two candidates, Sunak and Truss, are in fierce competition, and they gave more introductions to the policies to be implemented in the future. Among them, Truss made a policy promise that thoroughly angered prominent UK union leaders, who called for a national general strike.
On Monday, Truss proposed curbing union power by requiring unions to raise the minimum voting threshold for strike action from 40 percent to 50 percent and change the minimum notice period for such action from two to four weeks in advance.
She further stressed that, if elected as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, anti-strike legislation will be introduced within 30 days of taking office.
Lynch, secretary general of the British Rail, Maritime and Transport Union, said in the latest statement that Truss’ plan to limit strikes by British workers will lead to a huge reaction from the union.
At present, the strike issue is becoming a huge hidden danger for the British economy. According to CCTV news, on Wednesday local time, British Railways held a general strike. More than 40,000 workers went on strike for 24 hours. Half of the British railway network was forced to close, and only 20% of the British train services remained in operation. Another union has also decided to strike again on August 13.
At the heart of this wave of strikes is the unmet demands of railway workers for jobs, pay and working conditions. Railroad workers asked for a 7% pay rise due to the pandemic and an unprecedented spike in inflation, but railroad companies only agreed to a 3% increase.
In fact, in June this year, a general strike broke out on the British railway system, which was regarded as the most destructive action in 30 years.
Therefore, the strike event has become a key issue in the British Prime Minister’s campaign. At present, both of them have promised to limit the strike action. Truss has given specific policies and timetables, while Sunak has not announced any clear plans.
In response to Truss’ anti-strike policy, Lynch said it would make legal industrial action illegal, and the reality behind the strike was that British workers had actually been “blackmailed”.