The leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the Ukrainians could conquer Crimea “easily”.
Prigozhin’s Wagner group fought alongside Russian troops in Ukraine’s “special military operation,” launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin last February. Putin aimed for a quick victory against Ukraine, whose military was considered weaker and smaller than Moscow’s when war began. However, a vigorous defensive effort by the war-torn nation, backed by Western support, has offset Russian military gains, allowing the Eastern European country to reclaim thousands of square miles of occupied territory. As fighting continues, Ukraine is expected to launch a new counteroffensive in the coming months for months in hopes of regaining more of their land under Russian control.
Putin turned to the Wagner group in hopes of turning the tide of the war in his favor. Wagner’s group is a paramilitary organization mostly made up of ex-convicts that has fought for Russian interests in various conflicts around the world. Especially in the war in Ukraine, they fought with Russian forces in the battle for control of Bakhmut, a city in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
The rise of the Wagner Group has also raised the profile of Prigozhin, a businessman and former Putin confidant who has become increasingly critical of Moscow’s military leadership. He has been named as Putin’s potential successor, and his alleged ambitions have caused a rift in his relationship with the current Russian leader. During a recent discussion about the war with blogger Konstantin Dolgov, Prigozhin offered a bleak outlook for the Russian military.
A recording of Prigozhin’s comments was translated and posted on Twitter by journalist Julia Davis, who often follows Russian state television. Prigozhin presented both “pessimistic” and “optimistic” scenarios for Russia’s future in the war, noting that he believes a more positive outcome for Russia remains “unlikely”.
A more likely scenario, Prigozhin warned, would be for Ukraine to restore its borders before 2014. This would mean that Ukraine regains control of Crimea, a peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 and which had an important geopolitical significance due to its location along the Black Sea. Whichever side controls Crimea gains access to critical seaports.
“They will restore the borders before 2014 and that can easily happen”, said Prigozhin. “They’re going to attack Crimea, try to blow up the Crimean bridge, cut supply routes. Most likely, this scenario will not be good for us. That’s why we have to get ready for a tough war,” he added. Prigozhin made several suggestions on how Russia could prepare to prevent losses in the ongoing war.
He said Moscow should declare a state of emergency, declare “new waves” of troop mobilization and shift resources and funds exclusively to the war effort, such as producing more ammunition.
The “optimistic” scenario presented by Prigozhin would require Ukraine’s Western allies, who have given billions of dollars in arms to Kiev’s army, to tire of the war and Ukraine to agree to the negotiating table. Even in this scenario, according to Prigozhin, the Kremlin could only keep the territory currently in the hands of your soldiers.
(WORLD)