Title: Uncertainty and Speculation Surround Russian Army in Wake of Wagner Mercenary Rebellion
Subtitle: Purge rumors, fear of rebellion, and settling of scores create an atmosphere of uncertainty in the Russian military
Rumors and speculation are spreading within the secretive Russian army following the rebellion of the Wagner mercenary militia. The situation is highlighted by the uncertain fate of three generals who have found themselves at the center of attention.
The Disappearance of General Surovikin:
Highly respected for his relentlessness and veteran status from the brutal conflicts in Chechnya and Syria, General Sergei Surovikin was one of the most prominent commanders in the Russian intervention in Ukraine. He led the intervention from October 2022 to January 2023. General Surovikin is also known to be close to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of Wagner, who praised him in aggressive videos targeting the Russian general staff, even stating that he saw him as the only capable general with a fighting spirit.
However, following the failure of the rebellion, General Surovikin disappeared. His last public appearance was in a video where he urged Wagner’s troops to abandon the mutiny, displaying signs of being constrained. Observers note that he was not wearing epaulettes, indicating that he may have already been arrested. The New York Times, citing US intelligence services, claims that General Surovikin was aware of the mutiny, but the Kremlin denies these allegations and claims he is still officially in his post. Numerous rumors circulate, ranging from his arrest to a simple suspension. On Wednesday, Andrei Kartapolov, the head of the Defense Committee of the Russian Duma, added to the speculation, stating that Surovikin is currently “resting” and unavailable.
The Removal of General Popov:
Major General Ivan Popov revealed in a message on Wednesday night that he had been suspended from his duties for strongly alerting the high command about the difficulties faced in Ukraine, including heavy human losses and a lack of essential resources. He implies that the main commander, likely referring to General Gerasimov, betrayed the army during the most critical moment. It is reported that General Gerasimov accused Popov of “misinformation and alarmism” upon learning of the report. General Popov leads the highly regarded Russian 58th Army, currently engaged in combat in the Zaporiya region of Ukraine, facing the Kiev counteroffensive. The private military chat message of General Popov was shared publicly, which has caused some controversy among Russian officials who prefer internal matters to remain private.
The Death of General Tsokov:
There are reports that Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov died on July 11 as a result of a bombing attack on a hotel located far from the frontline near Berdyansk in southern Ukraine. At present, the Russian army has not confirmed his death, but Russian public television and pro-Kremlin military bloggers are the primary sources of this information in the absence of official comments from the Russian government. The death of another general in a specific bombing has attracted criticism, with discussions surrounding the superior intelligence capabilities of the enemy and a lack of proactive measures taken by the high command. Bloggers and military commentators have raised concerns about the existence of “sleeper cells” reporting to Ukraine from occupied territories and the well-known satellite espionage capabilities of Ukraine’s Western allies.
As the Russian army grapples with these uncertainties and speculations, the situation underscores potential tension within the ranks and instability within the military structure.