Significant changes have taken place on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine over the past week. Its troops quickly launched an armored attack that crossed Russian defenses and eventually recaptured more than 3,000 square kilometers of territory. This is larger than the area of land occupied by Russian forces in all operations in Ukraine since April 2021.
Where Ukraine plans to strike back against Russian forces, a New York Times report on a heightened exchange of intelligence information between senior Ukrainian officials and their U.S. counterparts did not surprise some U.S. military experts.
Washington will not stop providing Ukraine with intelligence information, including information on the location of Russian troops and their strategic weapons, as well as satellite imagery showing where the Russians are moving, communications and other information they have intercepted.
U.S. officials did not disclose details of the latest counteroffensive information it provided to Ukraine. But this time, Washington is looking for ways to defeat the Russian side.
To what extent do Ukrainians benefit from US intelligence?
“Both Ukrainian and U.S. officials have emphasized the importance of Kyiv receiving U.S. intelligence assistance,” Professor William Woolfors, a Dartmouth University professor and an expert on U.S. foreign policy toward Russia, told Al Jazeera.
The CIA has an in-depth knowledge of the Russian military’s military capabilities. This allows them to provide Ukrainians with the types of weapons needed to counter advanced Russian armor, especially in urban and suburban warfare environments, such as man-portable Javelins (surface-to-air) or anti-tank missiles and drones.
“It’s hard to imagine what Ukraine would do without American and Western aid,” Woolfors said. “But I think most military experts agree on the importance of that support.”
Against this backdrop, Jeffrey Rogge, an assistant professor in the Department of Intelligence and Security Studies at the Castle Military Academy in South Carolina, said the work of U.S. intelligence is one of the reasons Ukraine has been able to successfully fend off Russia.
According to Rogge, U.S. intelligence has been investing for years in the fight the Ukrainians are preparing for. But even if Ukraine had all the weapons for training and assistance from the United States and other countries, the Ukrainian offensive would not be so effective without ongoing intelligence information.
David de Roach, a professor of security studies at the Pentagon National Defense University and a former official with NATO and the U.S. Defense Department, told Al Jazeera that apparently allies such as the U.S. and other countries had been providing Ukraine with important Intelligence support.
According to de Roach, the United States and its partners have always made Russia a priority for their intelligence efforts. So unlike other conflicts, this time there has been a decades-long plan. The program is aimed at intercepting Russian signals and communications, developing persistent air coverage of the Russian military, monitoring and tracking its military capabilities, and manning within Russian military and state institutions.
What results have been achieved on the ground?
The Ukrainian government said Russia’s withdrawal from Kharkiv was an important turning point in the more than six-month-long conflict. Thousands of Russian soldiers gave up their weapons and ammunition to escape the Ukrainian attack.
Some Western experts see the withdrawal as the worst defeat for Russian troops since they were forced to withdraw from the outskirts of the capital Kyiv in March 2021.
“Russia is a very corrupt country,” De Roche said. “So it’s only natural that dozens of high-ranking officials are giving information to various Western intelligence agencies. There is no doubt that this information ends up in Ukraine’s hands, which makes the Its units are able to determine the position and operational patterns of Russian troops on the front lines. In addition, there are key information such as the location of air defense units, major logistical capabilities and command centers.”
According to de Roach, Western intelligence has provided the Ukrainians with a wealth of information that has prompted them to successfully advance in areas that are unlikely to be attacked by Moscow and that are not under the control of Russian forces, “and this seems to be the Ukrainian what was done in Kharkiv”.
How likely is Russia to respond?
As for the possibility of a Russian response to the US, Prof Woolfors said: “This report of widespread US intelligence support for Ukraine has led to a widespread narrative in Moscow that the Russians are at war with the entire West.”
Woolfors also said: “This matter helps the Russians to explain and justify the fact that they lost unexpectedly to the Ukrainians, such as the defeat that just happened to the Russian army. If you look at Russian news and social media, etc., you You will see that only a few voices admit that the war is based on false premises. So, the negotiating path to end the war should be considered at the moment. But the vast majority of comments are asking the government to escalate the fight.”
Although the former NATO and Pentagon official believes that Russia’s expected response is not unexpected. He asserted, “Moscow is dissatisfied with the news. But Putin’s entire judgment is based on what he calls the reconstruction of a stronger Russian state. Therefore, Putin is completely unable to admit his failure, nor what he did to Ukraine. The thing is a real war.”
As such, de Loach said Putin remained calm and denied the importance of these failures. In the words of the American expert, Putin’s entire judgment would be called into question if he were to admit to any failure, military or otherwise.
De Loach also believes that Putin will try to launch an attack to punish the Ukrainians. And he has carried out missile strikes against civilian power generation facilities. “But he is unlikely to issue a call for a full mobilization of the Russian population, as that would acquiesce to the failure of his plan.”
In the end, de Loch predicted the possibility of a major collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine. “Once they know that chaos is about to happen to these large forces, their soldiers will start to change their goals in order to survive,” he said. “If the Ukrainians manage to create a situation where ‘they think their only option is to flee or die in vain’, then we are very It is possible to see an epic collapse of the Russian army in Luhansk or Donetsk.”