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This week, the aftermath of South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue’s visit to the United States is still brewing on the Korean peninsula, which is closely related to China. Because the “Washington Declaration” signed with the United States during Yin Xiyue’s visit to the United States means that the US nuclear force will return to the peninsula after a lapse of 40 years, and this is of course an explosive event in the context of the current Sino-US game. On May 2, Yin Xiyue explained to the domestic public through the media: “China’s complete non-participation in sanctions against North Korea has violated UN Security Council resolutions. Therefore, it is China’s inaction that leaves South Korea with no choice.” South Korea is a matter of survival. Since China does not care, South Korea will naturally seek external help, and South Korea and the United States are allies in the first place, and it is only natural to seek protection from the United States.
Yin Xiyue’s point of view shows a realistic prospect for China on the Korean Peninsula, that is, if China continues to acquiesce to the North Korean nuclear issue without taking effective measures, China will lose the Korean Peninsula. Because South Korea has begun to accept the nuclear protection of the United States, and North Korea has always been habitually demonstrating its “juche” spirit and independence in front of China, which has been the case since the Mao Zedong and Kim Il Sung eras. In this way, the ending is clear at a glance.
Why does North Korea have nuclear weapons?
To understand whether the prospect of China losing the Korean peninsula will become a reality, it is necessary to understand why North Korea wants to possess nuclear weapons. In this way, it will be found that this prospect is at least not empty. Because North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons is not for the purpose of dealing with the United States as it claims, but has a strong practical need for its own domestic politics. This need has been difficult to give up after its nuclear power has grown from scratch and has grown from small to large. up.
North Korea’s development of nuclear and missile forces is primarily to protect the continuation of the era of family rule. Since Kim Il-sung decided to train Kim Jong-il to succeed him, the national management model of family rule has actually been determined.
As far as the author knows, after making the decision to be succeeded by Kim Jong Il, Kim Il Sung explained to the relevant countries: There are old comrades in the party who can succeed me, but other factions are not convinced, and only Comrade Kim Jong Il will succeed me. A bit able to balance the party. The Chinese side stated that it will respect the collective opinions of the Central Committee of the Labor Party. But it is said that Kim Il Sung did not convey China’s opinions to the Labor Party in this way, so Kim Jong Il finally succeeded to the throne. Kim Il Sung had been married twice, so after Kim Jong Il succeeded to the throne, the balance of power has always been in favor of the circle of Kim Jong Il’s children, mainly his own children. After Kim Jong-un succeeded to the throne, in order to consolidate his rule, incidents such as the killing of his uncle and the assassination of his brother happened one after another. The latest trend is that when Kim Jong-un attends various major events, including directing the launch of ballistic missiles, he always brings his same underage daughter with him.
At the same time, North Korea openly promoted the concept of “Baekdusan family” and “Baektusan bloodline” in the country, but there were no figures of the children of the older generation of revolutionaries who fought with Kim Il-sung in the northeast anti-Japanese guerrilla war. Obviously, this title refers specifically to the Kim Il Sung family, not to the group of revolutionaries of the older generation. The concept and its propaganda, which openly establish the political legitimacy and jurisprudence of family rule in North Korea, are carefully planned.
Obviously, the characteristics and context of the Korean family’s rule are obvious. The biggest domestic politics in North Korea is to maintain family rule from generation to generation. This is the fundamental reason why North Korea has to use all national resources to develop expensive nuclear and missile forces in an environment where its own output cannot meet the basic rations of the people. Its purpose It is to defend the generational rule of a specific family, and other national famines such as the “March of Suffering” are subordinate to a relatively secondary position. This can also explain why after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, North Korea required countless North Korean workers, service personnel and officials in China to stay in the local area to “fight the epidemic on the spot” and not return to the country.
North Korea’s preparations for the development of nuclear and missile forces first began in the Kim Il Sung era, mainly using students stationed abroad to stockpile materials and talents and make initial preliminary preparations. In the Kim Jong Il era, North Korea made full use of the environment in China and overseas to collect materials and money, actively made various preparations, and at the same time used various diplomatic means to compete with major powers, and finally succeeded in possessing nuclear weapons.
What needs to be pointed out in particular is that throughout the entire process of North Korea developing its nuclear and missile forces, the neighboring countries of North Korea, including the United States and even South Korea, have failed to effectively contain North Korea out of consideration of their own interests. Therefore, to a certain extent, North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons is also a victory in its diplomatic game.
North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons is obviously not to deal with the United States, because in fact it is beyond its power, and politics and diplomacy never consider who the target of nuclear weapons is, because the target of the strike can be changed. The political and diplomatic consideration is: do you have nuclear weapons. This is the heart of the matter.
Moreover, judging from the various performances of North Korea since it possessed nuclear weapons, North Korea uses North Korea’s nuclear weapons as a means to threaten and kidnap other countries, making neighboring countries revolve around North Korea, maximizing its own political and economic interests, and has little to do with restricting the United States. . A powerful example is that in September 2022, North Korea promulgated the “Nuclear Force Policy Act”, which stipulates that North Korea can pre-emptively attack or use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries. Its horrific nuclear intimidation motives have become obvious. Since the beginning of this year, North Korea has even nullified the UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea, and unrestrained test launches of ballistic missiles, which have constituted the biggest geopolitical instability factor in the region.
Faced with the above-mentioned situation, it is almost impossible to get North Korea to voluntarily dismantle its nuclear program through negotiations, except for the strong containment measures that North Korea cannot bear.
China Needs to Establish a Clear Policy on North Korean Nuclear Issues
For many years, the author has written articles predicting that North Korea’s unscrupulous behavior of possessing nuclear weapons will definitely become the greatest harm to China’s national security interests, and now all this has become a reality. Therefore, China must now establish a very clear nuclear policy towards North Korea. This is: the existence of the North Korean nuclear program will never be tolerated, otherwise it would rather take strong measures, including cooperation with third-party forces.
First of all, it is necessary to admit that there are three actual non-existences, which are: Do the “special relations” between the two parties and the two countries and the “China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship and Mutual Assistance” really exist and operate effectively? If they do not actually exist, they will be publicly announced and abolished, and the relationship between China and North Korea will be established as a normal state relationship and announced to the world.
Because China has missed many historical opportunities, there are only three effective measures to contain North Korea’s nuclear program in China’s hands: blockade of the border; repatriation of North Korean personnel in China except diplomats and closure of relevant institutions; assistance. China can blockade the border between China and North Korea, focusing on the three major ports and borders of Dandong, Yanbian, and Ji’an. Repatriate a large number of workers and businessmen in China other than North Korean diplomats, and close related places. The number of diplomatic personnel in North Korean embassies and consulates in China should be equal to the number of Chinese diplomatic personnel in North Korea. At the same time, aid to North Korea will be stopped, and part of the humanitarian aid will be implemented through the United Nations system.
Publicly reaffirm China’s policy of denuclearization of the peninsula on bilateral and international occasions such as the United Nations, and promise to strictly implement it.
At the same time, be prepared to take military action on your own or in cooperation with others.
To implement the above-mentioned policies, we should also do a good job in the reorganization and adjustment of China’s own relevant cadre team.
In addition to the above-mentioned means, other means are currently unfeasible. For example, the relevant parties sit down to negotiate and trade. North Korea has mastered this very well. Alternatively, China would acquiesce in the return of US nuclear power to the peninsula, which would greatly damage China’s international image, even if the US informed China of the action in advance.
At present, China is in the east, including the peninsula, Taiwan and the South China Sea. Only in the Korean peninsula can there be a legal, reasonable and operable counterattack opportunity.