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Two major events that have far-reaching impact on China-South Korea relations have occurred in South Korea this week:
First, on July 25, South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin almost publicly announced at the parliamentary political meeting that the South Korean government would abandon the “three nos” policy implemented by the previous Moon Jae-in administration in response to the deployment of “THAAD” in South Korea. The policy is: South Korea will not deploy additional THAAD systems, join the US anti-missile system, or develop South Korea-US-Japan security cooperation into a tripartite military alliance. Second, on July 26, the South Korean Customs Service released the export value for the first half of this year: South Korea’s exports to China declined in the first half of this year, while exports to the United States rose slightly. Considering the fact that South Korea is planning to join the U.S.-led “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” and the “Chip Quartet”, it is easy to convince the Korean Customs Office to interpret it as a new policy. The introduction to build momentum. Because the situation of China’s economy this year is objectively directly related to China’s anti-epidemic policy in the first half of this year.
At present, China-South Korea relations are undergoing some kind of great changes. Because under the current development situation, the “Three Nos” policy and China-South Korea economic and trade are the cornerstones of the relationship between the two countries.
South Korea actually abandons the “THAAD” and “Three Nos” policies
On July 25th, at the South Korean National Congress, as a government representative, Park Jin almost made it clear that THAAD’s “three nos” policy involves South Korea’s sovereignty and security, and South Korea cannot accept China’s request for South Korea to implement this policy. What China should do is to play a constructive role in North Korea’s denuclearization, rather than requiring South Korea to implement the “three nos” policy. This is actually an announcement that South Korea will abandon this policy, and at the same time, the policy choice given to China is: either join South Korea in anti-DPRK nuclear weapons, or please stop mentioning the “three nos” policy.
This is how Park Jin explained the policy. First of all, regarding the statement that the “Three Nos” commitment to China concerning the THAAD issue is a typical example of South Korea’s “low-profile diplomacy”, he said, as far as he knows, the “Three Nos” policy is not a commitment made by South Korea to China , is not an agreement reached between China and South Korea, but only the position stated by the South Korean side; since the “Three Nos” policy concerns South Korea’s national security and sovereignty, South Korea should judge and make decisions on its own, and China requires South Korea accordingly. It is unacceptable for the parties to fulfill their commitments.
Second, Park Jin believes that North Korea’s nuclear capabilities have been upgraded, and that China should not advocate the “three nos” policy, but should play a constructive role in realizing North Korea’s denuclearization, given the heightened threat of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles.
Although Park Jin also said that it is necessary to conduct strategic communication with the Chinese side in advance, so that the Chinese side can fully understand the position of the South Korean side and avoid misunderstanding by the Chinese side through diplomatic efforts, the reality is that in the face of the current game of Sino-US relations, South Korea is wartime The fact that the command authority is controlled by the United States and the THAAD system deployed in South Korea is controlled by the United States makes it difficult for China to make concessions to South Korea. So the reality is: because North Korea has nuclear weapons, both China and South Korea face insecurity from different aspects.
Judging from the current domestic politics in South Korea, this policy of the Yin Xiyue government is expected to gain a high approval rate. Originally, Yin Xiyue was elected president with only half of the public support, and the current approval rate does not exceed 40%, which is a fairly low level. However, the “Three Nos” policy is related to South Korea’s close national security after all. As long as Yin Xiyue operates South Korean public opinion a little, it will be easy to gain support. There is another reality: the North Korea policy of the Moon Jae-in administration, which pursues the “three nos” stance, has not been successful: North Korea’s nuclear forces have actually not been reduced during Moon Jae-in’s tenure, but on the contrary. The Yin government is responsible. Moreover, North Korea lacks basic respect for Moon Jae-in himself and his government, which has also caused widespread indignation among the South Korean people. Therefore, it is difficult for South Korean opposition parties to find an entry point to oppose the current government’s abolishing “three nos” policy. Therefore, abandoning the “Three Nos” policy can not only be approved by the domestic public in South Korea, but even a bonus for Yin Xiyue.
The development of the above situation is in the interest of North Korea. Because according to North Korea’s understanding: South Korea’s abandonment of the “Three Nos” policy will inevitably lead to a setback in Sino-South Korean relations; at the same time, due to the geographical location of interdependence, the proximity of South Korea-US relations will inevitably lead to closer Sino-North Korean relations, which will protect North Korea. effect.
Are struggling to join the chip “Quartet Alliance”
The issue of South Korea’s participation in the “Quartet Alliance” of chips has recently become one of the focuses of South Korean public opinion. The author’s judgment is the same as the conclusion made in the earlier article: For China, as long as South Korea does not participate in the US-led chip blockade against China because of its participation in the chip “Quartet Alliance”, China should not object; It will consider: If it participates in the chip blockade of China by the United States, can the lost Chinese market share be replaced by the United States? The author believes that South Korea is struggling with this, and it also depends on China’s diplomatic operations.
Yonhap News Agency reported on July 26 that Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Xing Haiming met with Yang Xiangzi, a member of the South Korean National Assembly and chairman of the Special Committee on Strengthening the Competitiveness of the Semiconductor Industry of the Ruling National Power. Xing Haiming said that China is willing to work with South Korea to adhere to the principle of a fair and just market, eliminate external interference, strengthen cooperation in semiconductor and other fields, and jointly maintain the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain.
On the same day, Xing Haiming also met with Andergen, Minister of Commerce and Negotiations of the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Energy of the Republic of Korea, and said: China is willing to take the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea as an opportunity to further strengthen communication and cooperation in the field of economics and trade, and make contributions to bilateral relations and economic development of the two countries. More positive contributions. China is committed to expanding opening up and will provide more new opportunities for foreign companies including Korean companies in the future.
Obviously, the above information is also consistent with the judgment and conclusion in the author’s earlier article: South Korea should not join the US-led blockade of Chinese chips; China will rely on its huge domestic market to compete with the US. At the same time, China’s international trade authority also told the author: This year’s weak trade between China and South Korea has a lot to do with China’s fight against the epidemic, and this can actually be changed.
There are also two associated problems here:
On the one hand, where and how much tolerance does China have on the THAAD issue? Is it possible for China and South Korea to jointly deal with the North Korean nuclear issue? On the other hand, how will Taiwan and Japan deal with the chip trade issue with China after joining the chip “Quartet Alliance”? The two regions are also highly dependent on the Chinese market, and the way they deal with their trade with China should affect each other.
An official from a major ASEAN economic country invited by the United States to join the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” led by the United States told the author: “Our bottom line is free trade, and even if the sky falls, this cannot be affected, and we have made this clear to the United States. “
(Note: The author is a policy observer. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor-in-charge email [email protected])