After the changing sky, Afghanistan is waiting to be done, and China is conservative about whether to participate in the reconstruction of Afghanistan.The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China only emphasized on Wednesday that China will provide assistance within its capacity, and whether China will expand“One Belt One Road Initiative”China’s project assistance to Afghanistan has also become the focus of the international community. However, some analysts pointed out that facing China’s unclear local situation and historical experience of investment in the past, it is still unclear whether Afghanistan is a strategic opportunity or a risk for China.
It is said that wealth is sought in danger, but this is not the case in Afghanistan.
State-owned mining enterprise China Metallurgical Corporation (MCC）2008And Jiangxi Copper Industry GroupBillion U.S. dollars joint bid for Lugar Province, Afghanistan (Logar) Of Enak (Mes AynakThe mining right was once claimed to be the largest foreign investment in the country’s history, but Chinese companies later failed to mine one gram of copper, and the political instability in Afghanistan was just one of the reasons.
The Taliban, who were fighting the Afghan government forces in the valley at the time, promised not to attack the Chinese investment project. The Chinese media Xinhua News Agency even reprinted a report that the US military stationed in Afghanistan is maintaining local order, which indirectly protects China’s investment and development.However, the protection of the U.S. military still cannot withstand the Taliban’s demand for protection.At the Buddhist cultural relics site a year ago, China Metallurgical Group has invested in the local area for many years.
Local residents of the Pashtun ethnic group in Afghanistan2015Nian complained in front of the Associated Press camera:“The Chinese have used all of our arable land and land, and they promised that we will compensate us, but we have received nothing so far.”
Afghanistan has nothing to do with it Chinese investment once suffered from Waterloo
China’s Ministry of Commerce is targeting Afghanistan’s latest2020As described in the “Guide to Foreign Investment Cooperation in 2009”, Afghanistan, which is rich in minerals, is“Poor man lying on the gold mine”. There are also warm reminders in the “Guide”: the infrastructure is severely damaged, the security situation is unstable, the government is inefficient, and the plan is difficult to implement.
The Royal United Armed Forces Research Institute (Russia) Pan Ruifan of Senior Researcher (Raffaello Pantucci) Just tell Radio Free Asia,“Until there is some stability and an inclusive and clear government organization in Afghanistan, I don’t think companies from other countries, including China, will be eager to invest in Afghanistan.”
Afghanistan’s National Finance 9To rely on foreign aid. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce of China,2019In 2015, the flow of Chinese direct investment in Afghanistan was about 2,400Ten thousand U.S. dollars.As of2019At the end of the year, the stock of Chinese direct investment in Afghanistan was about fourOne hundred million U.S. dollars.There are 14 major Chinese companies in AfghanistanHomes, including PetroChina, MCC Jiangtong Aynak Mining Co., Ltd., China Railway 14th Bureau, China 19th Metallurgical Group, ZTE Corporation, Huawei Technology, China Road and Bridge, Beixin Road and Bridge, China Power Engineering Corporation and Jiangsu Electric Power Design Institute.
Pan Ruifan also told reporters that China is“One Belt One Road Initiative”In fact, there are not many resources invested in Afghanistan.
The prospects for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to extend to Afghanistan are unclear
Although Zhao Lijian, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs,That is, before the U.S. military withdrew, it was confirmed that China was indeed discussing expansion with partner countries including Afghanistan.“One Belt One Road”China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor，CPEC). But after the Taliban captured the capital of Kabul, Zhao Lijian was cautious and conservative when asked at a regular press conference on Wednesday whether China would be willing to participate in the reconstruction of Afghanistan.
He says,“As a friendly neighbor and sincere friend of Afghanistan, China has always pursued a friendly policy for all the Afghan people, which will not change in the past, present or future.China will continue to support the peaceful reconstruction of Afghanistan.‘Within the limits of your ability’, To provide assistance for the economic and social development of Afghanistan.”
As a “sincere friend”, China now has to face the Taliban who once demanded protection fees from Chinese companies to come to power. On the other hand, Pakistan, which has close ties with the Taliban in Afghanistan, has repeatedly reported attacks against Chinese in recent years. Among them, the attack on the commuter shuttle bus of the Dasu Hydropower Station is the biggest terrorist attack recently encountered by people outside of China. The outside world generally believes that this has brought risks to the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Pan Ruifan believes that for China, stability is still the top priority of everything.
“Although the opportunity to assist Afghanistan by extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is logical, it is also very challenging. There has not really been a stable situation on the ground, and we still don’t know what form of government the Taliban will govern. It is still difficult to predict how the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will connect with Afghanistan.”Pan Ruifan told reporters.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is regarded as“One Belt One Road”Flagship project,2013When Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited Pakistan in 1988,2015Construction started in the year. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a trade corridor that includes roads, railways, oil and gas and optical cable channels. China’s total investment amounts to tens of billions of dollars.
Afghanistan’s future Can China show its responsibility as a great power?
The current situation in Afghanistan has added uncertainty to the already unstable Central Asia region. Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan McKinley (P. Michael McKinley) At the Washington Think Tank Strategy and International Research Center (CSIS) Said in the seminar that apart from Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan have historical entanglements of closeness and estrangement, facing the reconstruction of the Taliban.“Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan”Later, the United States could not ignore three external participants who played a certain role in the situation in Afghanistan.
“China, the Gulf countries, and Russia, I believe that China and Russia can play an active role in sending signals to the Taliban, that is, how the international community will deal with Afghanistan next depends on the actions of the Taliban.”McKinley pointed out.
According to information released by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Chinese President Xi Jinping in August18Japan has already had telephone conversations with Iraqi President Barham and Iranian President Leahy. Xi Jinping also emphasized to Leahy,“No matter how the international and regional situation changes, China will unswervingly develop friendly relations with Iran.”
Shia-dominated Iran and the Taliban are rivals, Shia and Sunni“Millennial controversy”No solution so far. How much resources does China have to invest in harmony with its neighbors in the west? After the United States leaves, it will be a big test for Beijing, which has always focused on stability.
Radio Free Asia reporter Zheng Chongsheng reports from Washington, editor in charge: He Ping, web editor: Hong Wei