Iraq has just endured two days of deadly violence after months of political turmoil. And Iran is closely linked to the stability of its western neighbor Iraq.
Earlier Monday, August 29, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein arrived in Tehran for a high-level meeting. Not long ago, its powerful religious leader, Moqtada al-Sadr, announced that he was quitting politics. The incident led his supporters to attack the government headquarters in Baghdad.
Fighting then broke out between Sadr supporters and security forces in Baghdad’s Green Zone and continued until Tuesday, the 30th. At least 30 people were killed and many more were injured in the clashes.
On Tuesday afternoon, Sadr said he would give his supporters 60 minutes to leave. In addition, he also apologized for it. Some analysts believe the apology is an attempt to avoid responsibility. But it can still bring the situation back to a relatively calm state.
During the two days of chaos, the Iranian authorities have been relatively silent on the political front. It is primarily focused on ensuring the safety and security of thousands of Iranian pilgrims. The pilgrims are traveling by car or plane to Iraq for the “Arba’een” festival.
The Iranian foreign ministry thanked the Iraqi government and people in a statement on Wednesday, Aug. 31, after calm returned to the scene. Thank them for their patience and tact for “solving a serious sedition campaign”.
The next round of direct talks between Tehran and rival Saudi Arabia has been delayed due to instability in host country Iraq. In addition to the talks, the Iraqi foreign minister also discussed local politics in the Iranian capital.
Iranian President Ibrahim Rahi quoted Hussein as saying on his website: “All political factions in Iraq should engage in dialogue in accordance with the constitution with the aim of reaching a consensus on the formation of a new government. Only in this way can further security and security be established in Iraq. Stablize.”
Leahy attacked the U.S. and Western presence in Iraq and the region as a whole. He also said at the time, “Iraq has taken steps and worked to improve the atmosphere of cooperation among regional countries without foreign interference. These actions will be able to effectively strengthen regional integration.”
The Iranian president’s remarks appear to be the exact opposite of Sadr’s “revolutionary” stance. Because Sadr has been trying to form a “national majority government” for nearly 10 months following his victory in October 2021 parliamentary elections. His lawmakers subsequently resigned en masse.
Iran has always supported a constitution-based consensus mechanism. The mechanism was formed during the post-2003 U.S. invasion period. Sadr himself studied at the seminary in the Iranian city of Qom. Although he has some ties to Iran, Sadr has also at times opposed Iranian influence in Iraq.
Political violence (Al Jazeera)
“Political dead end”
Mohammad Saleh Sejian, director of the Center for Arab-Iranian Studies, said Iran is not interested in managing Iraqi politics at the micro level. Because Iran needs to prioritize any destabilizing factors that could jeopardize its national security.
“The most important thing for Iran is that Iraq needs stability,” Sergian said in an interview with Al Jazeera. “Iran and Iraq share a 1,400-kilometer (870-mile) long border. In addition, the two sides previously (in 1980) s) for eight years. So any security issues that are happening now in Iraq, for better or worse, are likely to be reflected in Iran in some way.”
“Iran did not intervene when the ‘Sadr movement’ took over the Iraqi parliament and does not want to interfere now.”
But what is happening now is that whatever Iran wants, Sadr is stuck in a “political dead end” on many fronts, analysts say.
On the one hand, the powerful figure is trying to form a government by forging alliances with Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani and Sunni leader Mohammad Halbusi, Sergian said. While both men have some influence, they do not represent the full range of opinions of their respective groups and people.
As a result, Parliament was forced to dissolve. Subsequent attempts to shut down the judiciary also ultimately failed.
In addition to this, Sadr has suffered another major blow. On Sunday, August 28, Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri, a Shiite spiritual leader then living in Qom, unexpectedly announced that he would resign as religious leader due to health problems .
He has said his followers should emulate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not the Shiite center of the holy city of Najaf in Iraq.
Haley was not the greatest marji (marji’, Shia authority) in Qom or Najaf, but he was with Sadr’s father, Grand Ayatollah Sayyid al-Sadr. Muhammad Muhammad-Sadiq al-Sadr) was close. The latter soon chose Haley as the next Marji’ in his will, before being assassinated in 1999 for opposing Saddam Hussein’s rule.
“Basically, Haley told Sadr that you are not a ‘mujtahid’ (religious authority),” Sejian said. “So, under Sharia law, you don’t have the right to be at the top political leadership.” Eligibility. These words were the last straw for Sadr after his political defeat over the past few months. These words he had no choice, so he had to quit politics.”
The analyst noted that this may not be Sadr’s last appearance as a politician. Because he has had the experience of quitting and then making a comeback before. However, because what happened on Monday and Tuesday was very serious. He is expected to quit for at least five years.
“Strategic Depth”
Hadi Afuhashi, a Middle East analyst and former Iranian diplomat, said Iran and Iraq have strong historical, cultural and religious ties. These ties make the two countries “deeply intertwined”. And there is no other nearby country like the two of them.
“Afghanistan cannot replace Iraq with Iran, nor can Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan or even Turkey. Because Iran trades more with Turkey than with Iraq,” he told Al Jazeera.
“I’ve heard the Supreme Leader make it clear many times, especially in meetings with those senior Iraqi officials. They say Iraq is Iran’s strategic depth, and Iran, in turn, is Iraq’s strategic depth. That’s not his Take what you want. And it’s not a rhetoric against many other countries.”
The two countries, the United States and Israel, would love to see Iraq split into Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, according to Afhuhashi. However, such a situation will harm the interests of Iraq, Iran and the region.
“For the Islamic Republic of Iran, the unity, territorial integrity and security of Iraq are of paramount importance. Meaning, the more stable Iraq is, the greater the benefit to both countries,” he said.
The analyst believes that the leader has announced his exit several times before, so he remains unconvinced that Sadr will quit politics. He also said that, in his view, Sadr’s latest approach was targeting his followers for “emotional and psychological manipulation”.
“There has been violence and bloodshed recently in Baghdad’s Green Zone. But after that, things have not returned to their previous state,” Afhuhashi said. He also said the Iran-backed Coalition for the Coordination Framework is now in a state of increasing strength after Sadr was hit.
“I think right now Sadr is in a very bad and vulnerable position,” Afuhashi said. “He spoke at a press conference on Tuesday, August 30. But in his speech, he showed that he was in a very bad position for himself and him. For the followers of al-Qaeda, they are incompetent and terrified of the consequences of the bloodshed and the security situation in Iraq.”
He said it was about whether the coordination framework could restore parliament and form a government, or whether Sadr would intervene again. These issues remain to be seen.
He also said, “All eyes are now on Sadr, but also on the judiciary, the parliament and (caretaker prime minister) Mustafa Kadimi and others. What needs to be seen is whether they will continue Allow Sadr’s ‘Peace Brigade’ (Saraya al-Salam) to keep their weapons, or they will disarm them.”
“Furthermore, we have to observe, is the potential disarmament process done peacefully? Or is it creating a new struggle of its own.”