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Thailand’s parliament will meet in joint session on Thursday to elect the country’s new prime minister following May elections. In theory, the result should be obvious: the elections were clearly won by Pita Limjaroenrat, the reformist candidate of the Kao Klai (Let’s Go Forward) party, who obtained 38 percent of the votes, positioning himself well ahead of the second most voted, the Pheu Thai, which obtained 28 percent.
In reality, there is a rather high risk that Pita (he is called this by both Thais and the media) will fail to be elected, despite having won the elections: his coalition has obtained the majority in the Chamber but not in the Senate, whose members are chosen by the military junta currently in power in Thailand. Senators could prevent Pita from becoming prime minister by opposing the popular will, and this could provoke new protests. Furthermore, an investigation for a conflict of interest has just been opened against Pita, which according to his supporters is politically motivated.
Pita Limjaroenrat is a 42-year-old progressive and very charismatic former manager. His party, Let’s Go Forward, has a program based on political and economic reforms and the reduction of the gross inequalities present in Thailand, and is in opposition to the military junta currently in power. His exceptional electoral success came as a bit of a surprise to everyone: before the vote, it was believed that Andiamo Avanti would finish second, if not third. Instead Pita exceeded all expectations, and his success was transversal: he was voted for in all regions of Thailand and by almost all social classes.
The second most voted party was another opposition party, Pheu Thai, which is a center-right party led by the Shinawatra family, the most important political dynasty of the last twenty years in Thailand: it took 28 percent. The party representing the ruling military junta, which had current prime minister and former general Prayuth Chan-ocha as its candidate, only finished third, with just over 12 percent of the vote.
The elections were free and without major fraud, and after the vote Pita built a broad coalition of eight parties which also includes Pheu Thai: together, the first and second most voted parties in the country with their allies have 312 of the 500 seats in the Thai House of Representatives, a rather clear majority. The other 188 seats are occupied by various parties, the majority of which are close to the military junta.
But there is a problem: in 2017, to guarantee its power, the military junta had approved a new constitution according to which the composition of the Thai Senate was in practice decided by the junta itself. There are 200 senators, and according to the Constitution, in order to be appointed prime minister, a candidate must obtain a majority in the combined vote of the House (500 seats) and the Senate (200 seats).
Pita therefore needs 376 votes to become prime minister, while he currently only has 312. This means that he must be able to convince at least 65 senators and deputies from parties opposed to him.
It won’t be easy, because there are some fundamental differences between Pita and his allies on the one hand and deputies and senators close to the military junta on the other. The most important difference concerns the relationship with the Thai monarchy, which still plays a very active role in the country’s political and above all economic life: it is estimated that the king is the richest person in Thailand. The monarchy is protected by the so-called lese-majeste law, which corresponds to article 112 of the Criminal Procedure Code and provides for very severe penalties – years, if not decades in prison – for anyone who criticizes the monarchy and offends the figure of the king.
Against this law and against the injustices of Thai society in 2020 there were huge protests, led above all by the younger part of society, which demanded a profound reform of the monarchy. Although the figure of the king is still quite popular in Thailand, a growing part of the population has begun to consider the monarchy and its enormous economic interests as a brake on the country’s reforms and growth, and as one of the reasons for the serious economic and social inequalities .
Pita and Andiamo Avanti campaigned against the lese-majeste law, and once in government they would like to reform it profoundly by greatly reducing the penalties. Pheu Thai’s allies timidly agree with the lese-majeste reform, but the parties close to the military junta firmly oppose it: both because they believe that any attempt to weaken the monarchy is a blow against the social order, and because their electorate is often involved in the economic interests of the old regime of the country.
Furthermore, on Tuesday, the country’s electoral commission opened an investigation against Pita for conflict of interest. According to the Commission, Pita would have owned shares in a media company and in this way would have violated the electoral regulations. The Constitutional Court will have to decide on the case, and could deprive Pita of his electoral seat. This would not prevent him from running for prime minister, but it would still be a problem for Andiamo Avanti. According to Pita’s supporters, the electoral commission’s decision is politically motivated, and comes on top of numerous judicial inquiries opened against Andiamo Avanti in recent years.
If Pita fails to get himself elected prime minister by parliament there are basically two possibilities. The first is that voting will continue until Pita finds a majority: if Thursday’s vote fails, another one is already scheduled for 19 July. This could also lead to a prolonged political paralysis. The second possibility is that Pheu Thai decides to withdraw from the coalition with Andiamo Avanti and tries to propose its own candidate as prime minister, aware of the fact that deputies and senators close to the junta would be more inclined to vote for a party closer to the establishment.
In any case, if Pita is not elected there is a fair chance that there will be demonstrations and protests against the regime. The last time, in 2020, the military junta repressed them with violence.