Will the Ukraine war push Japan into a nuclear-armed state – BBC News

The topic represents a fundamental break with Japan’s postwar commitment to pacifism, which Japan’s postwar constitution spells out.

It is no coincidence, however, that this call for nuclear weapons came at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

For those who, like Abe, have long yearned for Japan’s remilitarization, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a powerful example of how those who have not faced a larger, better-armed and aggressive neighbor What happens if you can protect your country.

Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute in Sydney believes that, in Abe’s view, now is the time to push for a real debate in Japan and do the serious work of persuading the Japanese public.

“I feel like it’s a holy grail. He wants to try and change public opinion, and frankly (the Japanese public) has been stubborn in the past,” he told the BBC.

Stubbornness is a euphemism. A survey conducted last year found that 75 percent of Japanese want the country to sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

Abe’s views on nuclear weapons sparked outrage among groups of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who is from Hiroshima, was quick to attack his predecessor, calling Abe’s proposal “unacceptable”.

But Abe is a shrewd politician. He knows that the Ukraine issue is causing huge shocks, and he also knows that the Japanese public is worried about the enigmatic nuclear-armed North Korea and an increasingly aggressive China.

Professor Yoichi Shimada is a conservative academic who has long been a friend and adviser to Abe.

“He believed that Japan had to have some sort of independent force against China or North Korea,” Shimada said, “and that could include a nuclear arsenal. But he also knew that any politician who claimed Japan had nuclear weapons was suicidal. So he wants to activate this debate.”

“The official position of the Japanese government now is to rely on the extended (nuclear) deterrent of the United States. But Japan will not allow the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in Japan. Frankly, it is very selfish.”

Therefore, Abe is not suggesting that Japan build its own nuclear weapons. He suggested borrowing some from the US.

In the post-Cold War world, people have largely forgotten the fact that Germany, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands all have US nuclear weapons on their soil.

Not only that, but in the event of a nuclear war, these non-nuclear-weapon states could use their own aircraft to launch these weapons on behalf of the United States at targets.

That’s what Abe is now proposing for Japan.

But it still feels very far-fetched. Since 1971, Japanese law has explicitly prohibited the entry of any nuclear weapons into the country’s territory. But Abe is not alone in calling for discussions on the ban.

Ryozo Kato was Japan’s longest-serving postwar ambassador to the United States and perhaps the most ardent advocate of the Japan-US alliance. He believes that with North Korea possessing nuclear weapons, Japan can no longer rely solely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

“(The threat) may not have come from China,” he said.

“Some crazy leader might decide to launch a nuke at Japan. Or they could use it for political intimidation. Japan is pretty vulnerable. We have to do more defensively.”

Japan’s pacifism was imposed by the American occupiers after World War II. It has always been difficult to repeal it. However, the U.S. government, as well as many American and Japanese political elites, now support this view.

“Many Americans wish they didn’t bind Japan with a pacifist constitution,” said Malid of the Lowy Institute.

“We shouldn’t forget that people like Abe are deeply dissatisfied with the Americans imposing this constitution on them. They obviously hold their anger in their hearts because they want an alliance with the United States.”

“They know they can’t deal with China. Buyers and sellers on both sides of the Pacific regret it when it comes to a pacifist constitution.”

In fact, no matter what Japan’s constitution says, Japan is far from being a true pacifist country.

The Japanese navy is now one of the most powerful navies in the world—much larger than the British Royal Navy. What Japan lacks is a long-range strike capability.

Yoichi Shimada said that the current consensus is that it must change. Japan should have weapons capable of striking enemy territory, and Yoichi Shimada believes that the vast majority of politicians in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party believe Japan needs to have such capabilities.

Shimada said Putin’s threat to Ukraine only made that more urgent.

“President Putin mentioned the use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear country. It was a game-changer for many politicians in Japan.”

“Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. We all know Putin is cruel. But it’s still very shocking, even for him.”

Unlike Ukraine, Japan has a full ally with the United States, and Washington has pledged to retaliate against any country that attacks Japan, including using nuclear weapons.

This has always worked well when the United States was in power. But in Asia, China is now rapidly achieving a military balance with the United States. Then came the election of Trump.

“Trump said you have to defend yourself,” said Hiromi Murakami, author of “The Legacy of Abe.” “He made it clear. I think the general trend in the U.S. is basically the same as Trump’s. That’s what Pop said. You can’t be completely dependent on the U.S. anymore.”

For some, including Ambassador Kato, the answer is to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance — with Japan taking on more responsibility for keeping its neighbors safe.

For Shimada, this could mean that Japan will one day have to develop its own nuclear deterrent.

One thing everyone I spoke with agreed that Japan must somehow overcome its taboos about talking about its own defense.

“This issue has been avoided for many, many years,” said Hiromi Murakami.

“But the Japanese leadership really needs to bring this issue to the surface and show the public that we can no longer live in a false world.”

“The situation in Ukraine is truly shocking, and I hope it sparks real thinking in the leadership and the general public.”