Liquor stocks fluctuated higher, Gujing tribute wine and Yingjia tribute wine rose by more than 5%, Tsingtao Brewery and others rose

Liquor stocks fluctuated higher, Gujing tribute wine and Yingjia tribute wine rose by more than 5%, and Tsingtao Beer rose

2022-01-21 11:10

Source: Securities Times Network

Author: Wu Yongfang

Securities Times Network

Wu Yongfang

2022-01-21 11:10

Liquor stocks rose in intraday trading on the 21st. As of press time, Bairun shares rose by more than 6%, Gujing tribute wine and Yingjia tribute wine rose by more than 5%, Kouzijiao and Shede wine increased by more than 4%, Tsingtao Beer, Hainan Yedao and Chongqing Beer rose by more than 3%, while Yanghe, Wuliangye and Jiuguijiu all strengthened.

Essence Securities pointed out that from the perspective of fundamentals, valuation and capital, liquor stocks already have a high winning rate. (1) Fundamentals: The contract liabilities are high and there are sufficient reservoirs. According to channel research and feedback, dealers in some regions have a strong willingness to pay more for more goods and less money. The current consumption scenario is less affected than everyone thinks. in addition,On January 16, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission released ten measures to promote consumption work, emphasizing the insistence on stabilizing and expanding consumption under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, implementing local main responsibilities, and preventing simplification, “one size fits all”, and “layers of overweight”. “type prevention and control, minimize the impact on the production and life of the masses, low-risk areas should ensure reasonable short-distance flow and normal consumption activities in urban and rural areas.according to Baidu migration big data, this year’s Spring Festival travel time is significantly earlier than last year, and the flow of people is large. The outbreak of the epidemic in some areas and the strict policy control are mainly based on the special timing of the Spring Festival travel peak. Later, as the population flow drops, the epidemic prevention policy will be more or less. Flexible and scientific, the impact on consumption scenarios is reduced. (2) Valuation: After the adjustment, the pessimistic expectations about the impact of the epidemic have been basically fulfilled, and the advantages of the sector’s valuation have become increasingly prominent.Wind unanimously predicts that the current Wuliangye’s PE in 2022 is already within 30 times, and wine in some regions has dropped to about 20 times.Maotai, Laojiao,Fenjiu and sub-high-end valuations have both fallen to a low level. Historically, the situation of good returns and weak stock prices is rare. The current risk may lie in trampling; (3) Funding: whether it is a better economy and strong consumption, or the economy Weak-stimulus-recovery, the same destination, consumption will eventually rise, in comparison, the performance of liquor is more certain.

Guotai Junan Securities believes that liquor has a good start and a good start to cash collection and low inventory. It is expected that the follow-up peak season will show regional differentiation, price differentiation, and scene differentiation. Looking at the whole year, it is expected that the high-end will be stable, the sub-high-end will continue to grow, and the regional structure will continue to upgrade. With the continuous changes in products and channels of wine companies, the alpha advantage is prominent, and the allocation value after the valuation is digested. It is recommended to increase the three main lines: 1) Stick to high-end value: Maotai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao; 2) Growth targets: Shede Wine Industry, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiuguijiu; 3) Regional Three Musketeers Yingjia tribute wine, Jinshiyuan, Gujing tribute wine, etc.

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