ECB: here’s how far rates will rise between now and early 2023 according to Barclays

The main event of the euro area of ​​the week will be the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) scheduled for Thursday 9 June. Most analysts are already projected that the first rate hike will come at the July 21 meeting. “We expect the ECB to raise interest rates, with increases of 25 basis points at this year’s meetings (July, September, October and December) and at the beginning of 2023, bringing the deposit rate to 0.75%”, underline the experts of Barclays who then signal “a pause on the basis of the fact that inflation should go down in the first quarter of 2023”. However, the British bank’s experts believe that a 50 basis point rate hike is unlikely, particularly in the first meeting.

At the monetary policy meeting next Thursday, no changes to the official ECB rates are expected, but the announcement that APP purchases will be completed at the end of June. According to Barclays, Lagarde could reiterate the need for a gradual approach in light of uncertain prospects and flexibility to avoid market fragmentation recovery.