[Epoch Times, October 13, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Lin Yan comprehensive report) The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which is about to start on October 16, is still a mystery who will enter the top leadership. Despite strict information controls, 59-year-old Vice Premier Hu Chunhua is rumored to be the next prime minister, said Katsusuji Nakazawa, a columnist for Nikkei Asia.
If the news is true, the market may welcome the move, as Hu Chunhua’s appointment may mean the “reform and opening up” policy will be upheld.
In fact, the possible promotion of Hu Chunhua to the post of premier has the exact opposite meaning, Nakazawa said. Because for a long time, Hu Chunhua has been regarded as the ace of the next generation of leaders and the Communist Youth League faction. He follows in the footsteps of former President Hu Jintao and current Premier Li Keqiang.
First, Hu Chunhua’s election as prime minister will mean Xi Jinping has reached a compromise with his party opponents.
Nakazawa said sources familiar with the matter said China’s economic policies could become more conservative even with Hu Chunhua as prime minister because of Xi’s control of power.
Second, the premise of Xi Jinping’s concessions is that the Standing Committee members who are replaced by the Politburo must be his people.
The source also said that there is only one case for Xi Jinping to agree to Hu Chunhua as prime minister. This condition is that the vacant seats among the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s top decision-making body, will be filled by Xi Jinping’s cronies.
That way, Hu Chunhua would be a prime minister with little breathing room, surrounded by Xi Jinping’s allies.
Third, if Hu Chunhua is now prime minister, he will not be Xi Jinping’s successor.
At next year’s national congress, Xi will seek a third term and create an environment that will allow him to start a fourth term in 2027, Nakazawa said. To do this, he needs to maintain his dominance of the Politburo Standing Committee.
Even if Hu Chunhua does become prime minister this time, it will be difficult for him to become a candidate to succeed Xi Jinping as the top leader.
Because by the end of Xi Jinping’s fourth term (2032) – if anything, Hu Chunhua will be 69 years old. This age is when Xi Jinping turned 20 this year. In another ten years, young bureaucrats are more likely candidates to succeed Xi Jinping as party general secretary.
In late July, Hu Chunhua published an article in the party’s mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, repeatedly mentioning Xi Jinping’s name and ideology, and mentioning Xi’s new political slogan “common prosperity” in a second headline. In fact, Nakazawa said, Hu Chunhua had sworn allegiance to Xi Jinping.
Professor Mei: Don’t Misunderstand Market Policies as Xi’s Delegating Power
Barry Naughton, a professor of Chinese economics at the University of California, San Diego, analyzed that after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, there will be a large-scale replacement of economic officials at the top of the CCP.
Norton said that while advisers close to Xi Jinping like Chinese Vice Premier Liu He won’t lose 100 percent of their influence overnight, the reality is that they will be replaced by people with less experience, lower international reputations, and less active participation. It will have less influence when making economic policy.
He said that there will be many people in China ready to take over the vacant positions, but less independent voices cannot be a good thing. After the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping’s decision-making may become more personal or sudden, and the weakening of the influence of economic officials does not bode well for the future of China’s economic policy.
Norton estimates that the CCP is likely to continue to advance Xi Jinping’s past actions after the 20th National Congress, possibly with some rollbacks but without making any big promises. Or the CCP might take some steps at the convention to provide some level of “balance” to the leadership circle, perhaps to provide some continuity and reassurance to the outside world amid a general turnover of economic leadership.
“However, these measures aimed at appeasing opponents and allaying concerns should not be mistaken for Xi Jinping’s fundamental loosening of the levers of power, or a major change in policy or the orientation of key personnel,” he said.
Responsible editor: Ye Ziwei#