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Source: Voice of Securities Daily
On November 15, the three major A-share indexes continued to rise, and the ChiNext Index was the strongest. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan for 3 consecutive days, and the net inflow of northbound funds. The “bull market standard bearer” securities sector performed strongly. What is the future trend of A shares? Where are the investment opportunities?
As of the close on November 15, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.64% to close at 3134.08 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.14% to close at 11351.33 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.38% to close at 2431.73 points; the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1,058.61 billion yuan ; The net purchase of northbound funds was 8.154 billion yuan; overall, 4,172 A-share stocks rose and 598 stocks fell.
Among the 31 categories of Shenwan primary industries, all rose. Among them, the electronics industry rose by 5.51%, the non-bank financial industry rose by more than 3%, and its secondary sub-sector securities also rose by 3.68%.
Specifically, the electronics industry led the rise, receiving a net inflow of 7.632 billion yuan in large orders. Of the 304 trading stocks in the industry, 299 rose, accounting for 98.36%. Among them, 94 stocks rose by more than 5%.
For investment opportunities in the electronics industry,Soochow SecuritiesHe said that changes in inventory levels are an important leading indicator of the industry’s business cycle, and the peaking of inventory turnover days may become a turning point signal that fundamentals have bottomed out and the business climate has reversed. For the semiconductor sector, Q3 is still in the stage of inventory accumulation, and the average inventory turnover days of design companies increased by 19 days from the previous month, and it may further increase in Q4; Apple’s peak season pulls goods to drive the improvement of consumer electronics’ inventory turnover in Q3, and we still need to pay attention to the destocking effect of Android manufacturers in Q4 . We see that the MLCC inventory in panels and passive components is approaching a reasonable level after a round of digestion, and the Q4 boom is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to closely follow the pace of demand recovery in 1H23.
In terms of targets, we continue to be optimistic about domestic alternatives to core semiconductor equipment material parts and components. It is recommended to pay attention toNorth Huachuang、Anji Technology、Tuojing Technology、Huahai Qingke、Jiangfeng Electronics、Xinlai Applied Materials(rights protection),Fuchuang Precision、Dinglong sharesetc.; optimistic about the opportunity for passive components to bottom out, it is recommended to pay attentionTricyclic Group、Sunlord Electronics、Jiemei Technology、Farah Electronics、Jianghai shares、Guoli sharesetc.; optimistic about consumer electronics leaders that are affected by cost improvements and entering a new round of innovation cycle, it is recommended to pay attentionChangying Precision、Luxshare Precision、Transsion Holdings、Lante Optics、Han’s Laser、Zhuhai Guanyuetc.; it is recommended to pay attention to the core beneficiary targets of vehicle electrification and intelligenceStar Semiconductor、Times Electric、Tianyue advanced、Sanan Optoelectronics、World Games Circuit、Jingwang ElectronicsWait.
In addition, in terms of daily limit, 100 stocks closed at the daily limit price. Among them, there were 13 daily limit stocks whose stock prices had risen for more than 4 consecutive trading days; in terms of daily limit, 4 stocks closed at the daily limit price. From the perspective of Shenwan’s primary industry, the number of daily limit stocks in the electronics industry ranks first, reaching 22, followed by pharmaceutical, biological and mechanical equipment industries, with 14 and 10 daily limit stocks respectively.
Table: List of stocks that have risen for 4 consecutive days and closed at today’s daily limit
Watchmaking: Zhao Ziqiang
Regarding the trend of A-shares today, Zhu Runkang, the public offering product manager of Paipai.com Fortune, said that at the macro level, the domestic policy level is constantly warming up. The Fed stated that it will suspend interest rate hikes. The resonance of positive factors has greatly enhanced the market’s long-term sentiment. break through one trillion yuan. In addition, the attitude of the institutions has also become positive, and the enthusiasm for increasing positions is high. Nearly 40 billion yuan of capital has flowed into the north in 3 days. The next main factor affecting A-shares still depends on economic recovery, and we believe that there is a high probability that it will not be achieved overnight. The rebound trend of the stock market will also be repeated, and the overall trend will be volatile and upward.
Lang Chengcheng, general manager of the research department of Furong Fund, said that overall, with the optimization of epidemic prevention and control + the introduction of stable real estate policies for domestic economic growth, the high probability of the expected bottom range has been proven, and the phased market bottom at the end of October has been strongly consolidated . In terms of external liquidity, the US CPI rose by 7.7% year-on-year in October, which was lower than market expectations, and the core CPI also fell month-on-month. The 50bp rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December has become a high probability event, and the period of the fastest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is likely to have passed.
Regarding the market outlook, Zhou Wenming, general manager of Lingze Investment, said that it can be considered that the low point at the end of October is an important phased bottom, but it is difficult to judge the height of the continuous rebound, because it is only a marginal improvement and emotional relief, and it will take a long time for the actual situation to improve a period of time. Therefore, it is recommended to lower expectations, remain patient, and wait for the market to recover naturally.
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