News from the Financial Associated Press, February 5 (edited by Yao Hui)The latest strategic views of the top ten brokerages are freshly released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: Domestic capital relays foreign capital growth relay value
Since February, domestic capital has begun to relay foreign capital, and the market style has shifted from the value in January to growth. The adjustment and increase of positions by domestic institutions will further strengthen the growth style. External disturbances affect the rhythm of foreign capital inflows, and the annual inflow trend will not change. Although the weight index In the past week, the performance was flat, but the growth index performed well. The market is still in the process of comprehensive recovery, and the growth depression is still the main line in the near future. First of all, since the beginning of this year, foreign capital has continued to flow into the broader market. The recent external disturbances have affected the inflow rhythm. It is expected that after the inertia of rapid inflows weakens, it will gradually return to normal, but the trend of continuing to increase the allocation of A shares throughout the year remains unchanged. Secondly, since February, domestic capital has begun to relay foreign capital, and the direction of rebalancing and increasing positions is concentrated on the growth of small caps. It is expected that this trend will continue, and the growth style will continue to dominate. Finally, credit is expected to get off to a good start in January, and the fundamentals will lay a solid foundation for comprehensive restoration; after the implementation of the comprehensive registration system, market liquidity will remain stable; the study meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized speeding up the pace to solve the “stuck neck” problem, and policy support for emerging industries will be further strengthened big.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to growth depressions and increase the allocation priority of semiconductors and Xinchuang in emerging industries. In terms of specific varieties, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to small and medium-sized market capitalization growth stocks that have certain performance growth flexibility, are relatively unpopular, and have begun to benefit from liquidity restoration. These stocks are relatively more distributed in the fields of machinery, environmental protection, and chemicals, and are expected to benefit from comprehensive Fix quotes spread. At the same time, it is also recommended to pay attention to industries with large room for year-on-year improvement in performance in 2023, such as the digital economy in technology, pharmaceutical consumables and equipment in medicine, wind and solar storage in manufacturing, subdivided materials and equipment in the machinery and military sectors, Post-cycle categories such as building materials, home furnishing, and home appliances in the real estate chain. In the short term, considering the frequent occurrence of external disturbance factors and strong internal support, we recommend increasing the allocation priority of semiconductors and Xinchuang in emerging industries; in addition, innovative drugs may take over from CXO this year to become a new track-type sector.
Huaan Securities: Short-term fluctuations in the market can still actively look for opportunities
In the short term, considering that the large-than-expected employment in the United States has caused a fierce game in the market’s expectations for the Fed’s interest rate hike path, which has brought certain adjustment risks to the short-term market, this may require a clearer guidance from the CPI in mid-February. In the medium term, confidence in the internal economic recovery has gradually recovered, and expectations of ample liquidity have been re-stabilized, while the external Fed rate hike cycle has been confirmed to be coming to an end, so short-term fluctuations are not expected to end the interpretation of the spring market.
In terms of configuration, you can still actively look for opportunities. It is recommended to grasp three main lines: first, the independent and controllable short-term cost performance improvement in the growth style and the mid-term new energy track have obvious advantages; Repair some consumer products that match market expectations, such as medical services, medical beauty, etc.
Haitong Securities: Foreign capital has made efforts and domestic capital hopes to keep up
Drawing on the fund rhythm of 19/01, the starting point of the last round of bull market, foreign capital entered the market on 18/11, while domestic capital will follow up, and public offerings and leveraged funds will accelerate their entry into the market from 19/02-03. Since 22/10 is the initial stage of a new round of bull market, similar to 2019, foreign capital has recently exerted its strength, and it is estimated that the annual net inflow in 23 years will exceed 300 billion. Follow-up domestic capital is expected to keep up, and public offerings may become an important increase. Compared with history, the first wave of this bull market is not over yet, and the second half of the market focuses on growth, such as the digital economy, brokerages, and new energy, and focuses on consumption throughout the year.
CICC: Follow-up market interpretation does not need to be too cautious. Opportunities still outweigh risks
The focus of the market is shifting from focusing on marginal policy changes to substantive restoration of fundamentals. There is still room for valuation, but there is a marginal change in the recovery rate, and the short-term transaction level also has a certain impact on profit-taking.
In the next 3-6 months, we recommend that investors pay attention to the following three main lines: 1) areas with low expectations and marginal changes in policies that will be greatly affected, such as consumption affected by the epidemic, including food and beverage, home appliances, light industry and home furnishing, etc.; 2) ) High prosperity, policy support, and China’s competitive manufacturing growth track, including technology software and hardware, high-end manufacturing, etc.; 3) Areas with relatively sufficient stock price adjustments and uncertain medium and long-term prospects, such as medicine and the Internet.
CITIC Construction Investment: The second half of the spring market is dominated by technology + themes
After the festival, the volume of transactions in the market increased, and the style changed. The unilateral appreciation of the RMB came to an end, and the inflow of foreign capital gradually slowed down. The spring market is still sustainable, and the willingness of domestic capital to do more is gradually increasing, which also indicates that the follow-up market will have sufficient incremental funds. Adhere to the direction of “exceeding expectations + strong expectations”, grasp “technology + theme”, and pay attention to potential risks. Industry focus: Xinchuang, chip design/MLCC, games, gold, new energy vehicles, green electricity, etc.
China Merchants Securities: A shares are still in a two-year upward trend
On the whole, China’s economy will maintain a recovery trend in 2023, the global new industry trend is in the ascendant, A shares are still in the process of two-year upward trend, and the whole year will still maintain small and medium growth, and the technology innovation style is relatively dominant In this situation, the growth direction represented by high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence, medical biology, new energy, independent controllable and military equipment will be relatively dominant.
Kaiyuan Securities: This round of “restless counterattack” market may have a longer duration
Standing at the moment in 2023, whether it is the domestic economy, remaining market liquidity, risk appetite, or valuation levels are all in a “bottom-up” situation, and inflation has not yet heated up, the discount rate remains at a low level, which is the economic recovery cycle Under this condition, there is neither valuation constraint nor credit constraint, which fully satisfies the same-sex characteristics of the above years. Therefore, we predict that 2023 may be expected to emerge from the long-lasting “restless counterattack” market, and may even take over the 2023Q1 financial report market.
Configuration suggestions: (1) The growth style has fundamental support, and benefits from liquidity and risk preference flexibility may be the main line of the market, including: (1) High-end manufacturing: mechanical automation, power equipment (energy storage>photovoltaic) and new energy Automobiles (complete vehicles, batteries, energy metals); (2) Both “policy bottom” and fundamental logic independent controllable direction: computer (finance/electricity/transportation-related innovation), semiconductor (equipment & materials), medicine biological, military. (2) The layout of securities firms is at the right time: “Odds” benefit from the liquidity expansion cycle, and “Winning rate” waits for the fundamentals to “reverse”. (3) Benefiting from the liberalization of consumption scenarios, the layout: beauty care, social services, Internet e-commerce and home appliances.
Sealand Securities: The growth sector is ready to “bloom”
The narrow adjustment of the market after the festival this year is a continuation of the general trend rather than a fulfillment. The short-term economy is difficult to falsify, and the performance window is superimposed with policy efforts. Expectations, we can still remain optimistic about the market before the two sessions. The formation of the market’s main line style will first go through the accompanying stage before it stands out. It is analogous to the value sector’s “climbing the pit” in November last year. After December, the excess returns expanded significantly. It is expected to achieve “blooming”.
In terms of industry configuration, focus on the two main lines of security assets and high-end manufacturing. First, security assets such as computers, communications, and electronics that are in line with the current industrial structure upgrading and adjustment policy ideas are expected to outperform the market; second, non-ferrous metals and new chemical materials related to some new energy chains that continue to be booming are expected to achieve excess returns at this stage .
Guotai Junan: Focusing on small and medium-sized market capitalization to buy, start construction and fight for growth
Market expectations diverged, the index market slowed down, and stocks shifted from a global rise to a structural rise. The Spring Festival-Two Sessions policy, performance, and data window period are favorable window periods for small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks, and focus on start-up chains and growth stocks.
In the peak season of construction, it is recommended to focus on steel, building materials, and construction that focus on the traditional construction chain; home furnishing and home appliances that are guaranteed to be delivered and delivered; and sub-high-end liquor that is flexible for business and work resumption. Secondly, benefiting from the orientation of domestic high-quality development, the policy orientation of prioritizing industrial upgrading in various regions, and the emergence of new technologies (ChatGPT), coupled with the expected narrowing of the decline in exports of the European and American economies beyond expectations. Manufacturing upgrades, recommend TMT and innovative drugs, optimistic about computers, communications, electronics, mechanical equipment, innovative drugs, etc.
Western Securities: Before the two sessions, the market can still expect policy to be the current main line
The market is still promising before the two sessions. Waiting patiently for the formation of joint forces, policy expectations are still the current main line, and the return of the value style throughout the year will be the general trend.
Promoting consumption, expanding effective investment and reforming state-owned enterprises remain the three major priorities of the policy. 1) From the perspective of consumption promotion, with the release of prevention and control policies, the current daily consumption has gradually recovered, and the follow-up policies are expected to further promote the upgrading of durable consumer goods, focusing on the home appliance and automobile industries. 2) From the perspective of expanding effective investment, the digital economy and new infrastructure will be the new focus, including Xinchuang, AIGC, data centers, 5G, virtual reality and other policies. 3) Deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises is still an important goal of the current financial system reform. With the advancement of the main board registration system, the supporting national reform policy is expected to be further accelerated in the future, including communication, electric power, construction, transportation, military and other industries. Low valuations are high The leading state-owned enterprises that pay dividends are worthy of attention.