A journalist recently asked the head of the European Space Agency (ESA) whether a European would one day walk on the moon. “Yes,” replied Josef Aschbacher. He just couldn’t say when yet. There are setbacks in the newly reignited race to the moon.
This time not with the Russians, as in the 1960s, but with the former winners, the Americans with NASA. The US space agency has just had to admit another delay in its lunar project.
Officially, the manned landing is now expected in September 2026, instead of 2025. But even this date is very uncertain. The US Court of Auditors is assuming 2027. This means that the supposed lead over the Chinese, who want to land manned in 2030, is melting away.
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LandSpace vs. SpaceX und Co.
There is serious speculation in the space industry about a Chinese victory following the recent postponement of the next Artemis missions, as the US moon landing project is called. It would be a fantastic image success for Beijing. The difference between the first manned moon landing by the Americans in 1969 and the Apollo program is that this time an extraordinarily complex mission profile is planned and there is therefore a multiple risk of postponements.
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According to the NASA concept, around a dozen rocket launches are now necessary to put two people on the moon again. A good 50 years ago, a single launch of the large Saturn rocket was enough, with the Apollo capsule emblazoned at the top and the lunar module packed behind it.
The timetable for the next US moon landing, however, is extremely difficult. Many things are not yet finished or have passed their test. Delays would play into the Chinese’s hands.
Key role of SpaceX
The key role is played by the space company SpaceX owned by the technology entrepreneur and billionaire Elon Musk. When the delays to the US moon landing were announced, SpaceX manager Jessica Jensen admitted that about ten launches of SpaceX’s giant Starship rocket are required for a single moon landing.
“That would be my rough estimate, but depending on how well the initial flight tests go, it could be less, or it could be a little more,” she said. The reason: First, a flying gas station will be set up in Earth orbit, which will be refueled itself and then in turn refuel the huge lunar loading vehicle. However, none of this has ever been tried before.
The converted Starship rocket for the moon landing (HLS Human Landing System) also still needs to be developed in detail, for which SpaceX received $2.98 billion. But development is also behind schedule.
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In space, the astronauts are supposed to transfer from their Orion capsule into the SpaceX landing vehicle – which has also never been tested. The Starship rocket has flown twice before, but has never successfully completed a complete mission. The next start is scheduled for February.
The complexity is also contributed by the fact that there is its own launch rocket (SLS Space Launch System), the development of which was costly and delayed under the leadership of Boeing. It has only started once so far, in November 2022.
An unmanned Orion capsule – built by Lockheed Martin with a large service module from Airbus for fuel, oxygen and energy – orbited the moon. The next lunar orbit (Artemis 2), this time manned, will no longer take place in November but has been postponed to autumn 2025.
Apollo program was significantly faster
Critics point out that in the Apollo program in 1968, only two months passed between the first manned flight of an Apollo capsule and the first manned orbit of the moon with Apollo 8. Now more than two years pass between two launches of the SLS moon rocket. NASA apparently took enormous risks in the past to win the space race against the Soviets in the first manned moon landing.
Now everything has to be particularly secure and that takes time. The postponement of the first manned flight of an Orion capsule to orbit the moon to September 2025 is justified by an improvement in the heat shield. “We saw some unexpected phenomena,” said NASA manager Amit Kshatriya.
There are also problems with the valve electronics. But this does not affect deliveries from Airbus and the Europeans, according to ESA. “The delay is not related to the European Service Module (ESM).” This module exceeded expectations on its first flight. There are probably still problems with the production of the spacesuits for the next moon landing.
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This plays into the hands of the Chinese. President Xi Jinping is convinced that his country should play a leading role in the world. For him, building a space power is part of it. Remarkable successes have already been achieved. The first unmanned moon landing was successful over ten years ago. In 2020, the Chinese even automatically brought moon rocks to Earth. The manned moon landing planned for 2030 will be the start of a permanent lunar station.
When NASA boss Bill Nelson was recently asked whether he feared that the Chinese would reach the moon before the Americans in the new race, he played it down. “I’m not worried that China will land before us,” he said. It is completely unclear when it will be the Europeans’ turn.
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