Financial Associated Press, May 2 (edited by Ma Lan)Known as the “small non-agricultural” ADP data was much higher than expected. In April, private employment was reported to have increased by 296,000, which was higher than the previous month’s 142,000 and much higher than the expected 133,000. It was the highest monthly increase since July 2022. increase.
ADP’s report has always been regarded as the forward-looking data of the US Department of Labor’s non-agricultural employment data on Friday, so its surprise may also bring “surprises” from the non-agricultural data, but there are sometimes quite large differences between the two. At this moment, a strong labor market may more directly mean the stubbornness of inflation, further prompting the strengthening of the Fed’s hawks.
However, compared to starting to panic now, the U.S. stock market is obviously more looking forward to the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates and more critical non-agricultural data. In addition to the “small non-agricultural” data, tonight is also the night when the Fed’s interest rate decision is announced. At 2 a.m. Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in May, and the market generally favors raising interest rates by another 25 basis points.
If market expectations are correct, this represents an increase in the Fed’s borrowing costs from 0% to 5% in about a year. The unprecedented scale and speed of the hikes underscores the urgency of policymakers to keep inflation down.
But the cost of tightening has already begun to show: the US banking system is collapsing; and the non-farm payrolls data of the past three months also show that the labor market is cooling and the overall economy is slowing down.
At the same time, the US government’s debt ceiling crisis is still affecting market sentiment. Investors hope that Congress can turn the tide before defaulting, but some people worry that the US government debt may have to go to the worst situation.
What traders want to know is whether this is the last rate hike — or if concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling will at least put the Fed on hold in June, said City Index strategist Matt Simpson. But Simpson probably didn’t expect the ADP data to be so strong, which also puts more question marks on the prospect of the Fed’s policy to pause interest rate hikes.
As of press time, S&P 500 futures rose 0.24%; Dow futures rose 0.16%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.25%.
market dynamics
U.S. stocks closed on the second day, and the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down, with regional bank stocks and oil stocks leading the decline. As of the close, the Dow fell 1.08%; the Nasdaq fell 1.08%; the S&P 500 fell 1.16%.
Almost all of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 closed down, with only the optional consumer sector up 0.16%. The energy sector fell 4.28%, while the financial sector fell 2.3%.
The KBW regional bank index fell 5.5%, hitting a new low since November 2020. Alliance Western Bank closed down 15%, Westpac United Bank closed down nearly 28%, Union Credit Bank fell more than 12%, Zions Bancorp. fell More than 10%.
In terms of the European market, as of press time, the major indexes all showed an upward trend, rebounding from the decline in the previous trading day. Germany’s DAX was up 0.68%, Britain’s FTSE 100 was up 0.29% and France’s CAC 40 was up 0.52%.
company news
[Hyundai Kia’s US sales in April increased by 15% year-on-year, double-digit growth for 6 consecutive months]
Hyundai Motor Group said on the 3rd that Hyundai Motor (including Genesis) and Kia sold a total of 144,874 units in the United States in April, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. The sales of Hyundai Motor and Kia in the United States have increased year-on-year for nine consecutive months, and the combined sales of the two companies have achieved double-digit growth for six consecutive months.
[Taiwan media: MSI and Avalue evaluate the establishment of a factory in Vietnam, and Guangji expects to establish production capacity in Vietnam within two years]
According to Taiwan’s “Economic Daily” report, the board of directors of Guangji has decided to go to Vietnam to set up a factory. It is expected to establish its own production capacity within two years. At that time, about 40% to 50% of the orders for Netcom equipment will be shipped from Vietnam; peer Avalue revealed that in order to improve the insufficient production capacity , the company is looking for suitable investment targets and hopes to expand production capacity as soon as possible; since the shareholder Compal Group has a factory in Vietnam, if customers urgently need manufacturing in Southeast Asia, they can also provide immediate support. In response to the news of “establishing a factory in Vietnam”, the major e-sports manufacturer MSI stated that the company is currently evaluating that the visibility of the industrial boom in 2023 is not good, and no specific decision has been made yet.
【Sudan conflict may make Coke Sprite out of market within 6 months】
According to media reports, the armed conflict in Sudan has not only caused a humanitarian crisis, but also made global carbonated beverage manufacturers anxious. Since gum arabic, which is abundant in Sudan, is the key material of carbonated beverages, if exports are interrupted, common carbonated beverages such as Coke and Sprite may face the risk of going out of market within 3 to 6 months. Coca-Cola and Pepsi declined to comment.
[Samsung’s 4nm chip process yield rate has caught up with TSMC and has begun to receive orders from major customers such as AMD]
According to South Korea’s daily economic news report, Samsung recently posted on social media that its 4nm chip process yield has improved and is close to the 5nm level, and the next-generation 4nm process will provide a higher yield. TSMC and Samsung compete fiercely in the field of advanced manufacturing. According to industry insiders, Samsung’s 4nm process is now comparable to TSMC and has begun to receive orders from major customers such as Super Micro.
[Tesla resumes sales of Model 3 long-range version in the United States]
Tesla’s U.S. official website showed on May 2 local time that it has resumed accepting orders for the Model 3 long-range version in the U.S. The current price is $47,240, which is 18.5% lower than when sales were suspended.
[Apple and Google draft industry norms to reduce unnecessary device tracking]
On May 2 local time, Apple announced that it and Google jointly submitted a proposed industry specification to help combat the abuse of Bluetooth location tracking. The specification will allow Bluetooth location tracking devices to be compatible with unauthorized tracking detection and alerts on iOS and Android platforms. Samsung, Tile, Chipolo, eufy Security and Pebblebee expressed support for the draft specification.
Noteworthy events in the US stock market time period (Beijing time)
May 3rd
21:45 S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (April)
21:45 U.S. services PMI (April)
22:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI (April)
22:30 U.S. crude oil inventories
May 4th
02:00 Fed rate decision and FOMC statement
02:30 FOMC press conference