Financial Associates News on October 9th, the National Day holiday is over, and the A-share market in the fourth quarter is about to kick off. How do you view the market outlook? See this week’s top 10 brokerage strategies.
CITIC Securities: The bottom features are prominent, and the time to enter the market is approaching
The characteristics of the current market bottom appear, which are reflected in a highly consistent prudent attitude, continued sluggish transactions, and more reasonable valuations; policy and economic expectations gradually became clear in October, the impact of rapid exchange rate depreciation ended, and active funds on the market have completed hedging and reducing positions. The bottom-hunting funds have begun to enter the market, and it is expected that the market will usher in the starting point of the monthly level repair market.
First of all, from the perspective of the characteristics of the bottom, investors’ cautious attitude has been highly consistent. “Let’s see next year” has become a general consensus. The current market enthusiasm has cooled to the lowest level since September 2020. The overall valuation has long-term attractiveness. Some industries Dynamic valuations are close to end-2018 levels.
Secondly, from the point of view of the entry time, the upcoming 20th National Congress will clarify the long-term strategic direction, and the measures to stabilize growth will be concentrated again. It is expected that the third quarter will be the end of this round of economic downturn, and the fourth quarter will gradually improve, and the Fed will raise interest rates. It has reached its limit, and it is expected that measures to curb inflation through non-monetary means will be discussed more.
Finally, from the perspective of incremental liquidity, active private placements have fallen below the median of the past five years, and transaction congestion has become healthier. Pre-holiday hedging funds may return after exchange rate fluctuation worries ease, while OTC bottom-hunting funds are gradually Admission. It is expected that there will be a window for adding positions in October, adhere to a balanced allocation, and actively deploy valuation switching and business inflection points.
Haitong Securities: Embracing the Second Wave of Opportunities
According to the experience of five market bottoms in history, the bottom reversal is accompanied by the year-on-year social financing stock/loan balance/M2 year-on-year (reflecting monetary policy), the cumulative infrastructure investment (reflecting fiscal policy), PMI/PMI new orders (reflecting the manufacturing industry), the cumulative sales area of commercial housing year-on-year (early cycle industries), and the cumulative year-on-year automobile sales (early cycle industries) three or more of the five leading indicators stabilized. At the end of April, 3 of the 5 fundamental leading indicators had recovered, which confirmed the market reversal.
In recent months, the cumulative sales volume of automobiles has rebounded year-on-year, and the cumulative sales area of real estate, the last indicator, is gradually stabilizing year-on-year. It is judged that the bottom area formed by A shares in 04/27 is still relatively solid. Judging from historical laws, we believe that there may be another investment opportunity this year, and the catalyst for future market price rises may be steady growth and the implementation of the policy of guaranteeing property handover. With the gradual implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth and guaranteeing property handover, it may promote the continuous recovery of the macro economy, and the improvement of the macro economy will also promote the recovery of corporate profits, and the stock market is expected to usher in the second wave of opportunities this year.
Structural characteristics of the industry: The degree of prosperity is differentiated.
Since the beginning of this year, the resource products industry has been among the top gainers, with obvious excess returns. In view of the declining prosperity of resource products, the profitability of the industry may be under pressure, and the cost performance of the resource product industry with higher excess returns this year may decrease. From the perspective of valuation and allocation, the cost-effectiveness of the consumer industry is acceptable, but it may take some time for the consumption data and corporate profits to improve significantly under the current domestic epidemic disruption, and the resilience of consumer stocks to repair may not be large. At present, the valuation of the real estate sector of banks is already at the bottom of history. With the implementation of relevant measures to guarantee the delivery of buildings, it is expected to alleviate the negative concerns of the market about the real estate chain, and bank real estate may usher in an opportunity for valuation repair. Compared with resources, consumption, and financial real estate, growth industries such as new energy and digital economy are more prosperous. Both sales of new energy vehicles and installed photovoltaic capacity maintained rapid growth. With the accelerated introduction of policies to promote automobile consumption in various places and the restoration of normal production and living order in epidemic-controlled areas, sales of new energy vehicles began to resume in late September. In the context of the energy crisis, the demand for overseas photovoltaic installations is strong, and domestic distributed photovoltaics are supported by policies. Accelerate capacity expansion with centralized photovoltaics. In terms of the digital economy, my country’s development of the digital economy has risen to a national strategy. The current focus of the development of the digital economy is to accelerate the construction of digital infrastructure. Data centers, cloud computing, 5G and other fields are the main directions for policy efforts.
Huaan Securities: While waiting for major meetings and major risks to land, the allocation is slightly balanced
You can pay attention to the gradual layout opportunities of popular tracks with high growth in the medium term, some consumer goods with long-term logic, traditional energy chains with strong demand but limited supply, and real estate.
1) The popular track in the early stage has been greatly adjusted, and the valuation has been digested by both the adjustment and the boom. The current valuation-performance combination already has a very advantageous medium-term configuration cost-effectiveness, and a gradual layout can be considered. A pick-up in growth may have to wait for external rate hike expectations to ease. Then, based on the medium-term perspective, under the support of the relative advantages in performance, the tightening of monetary policy, and the high support of industrial policies, this round of growth market has not completely ended, and the follow-up can still be expected. Under the significant adjustment in the early stage, there is now an opportunity for gradual configuration. It is recommended to pay more attention to the growth hot tracks of new energy chain wind and solar storage, new energy vehicle chain upstream material equipment and midstream manufacturing, UHV/new power grid equipment, etc.
2) Some structural opportunities of consumer goods with long logic can also be paid attention to. Pig prices have entered a new round of upward cycle, and the pig breeding sector can be allocated during the adjustment period, focusing on pig vaccines, feed and breeding industry; in addition, consumption recovery is K-shaped differentiation, focusing on high demand resilience, stable and high performance growth , A high-end liquor plate with a large enough volume.
3) The demand for heating in winter is strong, and under the limited supply, some traditional energy and related transportation industries are certain. The winter heating peak is approaching, traditional energy prices are expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to coal and natural gas related fields; affected by the EU embargo on Russian crude oil and refined oil, the global shipping pattern has undergone major changes, and opportunities such as derivative crude oil and refined oil transportation are also worthy of focus. grasp.
4) Real estate control policies have been introduced intensively, the real estate sales boom has picked up during the National Day period, and the value of real estate allocation is still there, but the space and time of the follow-up market should focus on the sustainability of the improvement in the boom.
Industrial Securities: Bottom area, love in late autumn
During the National Day holiday, overseas markets experienced large fluctuations. Looking forward, we still need to pay attention to the changes in market interest rate hike expectations caused by the US economic and inflation data in September. However, with the gradual resolution of domestic risks, we believe that the current market is already in the bottom area.
1) Real estate risks were gradually resolved, and the economic margins recovered. On September 30, the central bank announced to lower the loan interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the personal income tax rebate for the purchase of housing, and the real estate policy was marginally relaxed. At the same time, from the data point of view, the year-on-year decline in real estate sales narrowed in September, and the housing construction PMI related to real estate construction also maintained a rapid expansion trend. Previous market concerns about real estate risks are being resolved. On the other hand, with the easing of high temperature and the landing of “physical workload”, the manufacturing PMI rose back to the expansion range in September, and the economy is also recovering marginally.
2) From the perspective of valuation and equity risk premium, as of September 30, the PE valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index of 11.8 times and the ChiNext Index of 43.6 times has both approached the level at the end of April this year, and the equity risk premium is also at 2010. The historical highs of 85.1% and 94.5% since the beginning of the year.
3) In terms of market activity, the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges has remained at around 650 billion yuan for 10 consecutive trading days, which is significantly lower than the level at the end of April this year. The balance of the two financing also fell to 1.54 trillion yuan.
4) In addition, from the perspective of institutional positions, the absolute income institutions represented by private equity have now reached a historical low again after a sharp reduction in positions since August. Therefore, we believe that although overseas is still turbulent, domestic risks have been gradually resolved, pessimistic expectations have been reflected in current valuations and positions, and the market has reached the bottom area.
“Price is more important than time” in the bottom area. Structurally, it is recommended to focus on, lay out the third quarterly report in advance and even the direction in which the prosperity is expected to continue next year: 1) The “new semi-military” is expected to start a new round of upward movement in late October: focus on the military industry (aviation industry) Engines), energy storage, new energy vehicles (components, lithium batteries), intelligent driving, semiconductors (materials) and other subdivisions. 2) Consumption with marginal improvement: Driven by the two-wheel drive of demand release and policy stimulus, consumption is expected to usher in a gradual recovery. It is recommended to focus on liquor, aviation, hotels, duty-free and other directions.
In the medium and long term, we will continue to focus on the six major directions of “specialized, refined and new”: 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation of information and communication technologies (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, etc.) , 5G, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, robots, advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical equipment and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronics, etc.) components, space stations, space shuttles, etc.), 6) food security (seed industry, biotechnology, fertilizers, etc.).
Minsheng Securities: Macro volatility is amplified, and solving “stagnation” is the key
During the 11th November, overseas risk assets were generally bullish and rebounded, and at the same time, there were relatively obvious fluctuations. Based on the Merrill Lynch clock, “there will be no inflation if there is a recession” is a cognitive trap for market investors. Two major factors are entering the field of vision: one is that the supply of commodities has not been released in the past, but the problem of supply rigidity has been exacerbated again; the other is that driven by labor wages, inflation has shown a strong stickiness.
Domestically, the downturn in the real estate market is spreading to other sectors, which is being verified by economic data. Judging from the operating data of industrial enterprises, whether it is mining or manufacturing, the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative operating income and cumulative net profit in August continued to decline; Affected by the disturbance of the new crown epidemic, travel and consumption data during the National Day were similar. It is also down compared to the same period in history. Correspondingly, some of the overseas listed manufacturing companies with the most prominent resonance between China’s industrial policy and corporate trends have returned to the low point of the year, and many industries are difficult to survive under the magnified macro volatility.
On the eve of the National Day, the central and local governments have successively taken active measures to support the advancement of work related to “guaranteing the handover of buildings and people’s livelihood” and stabilizing the expectations of the real estate market. Real estate as a capital product has not been reversed in housing price expectations. Whether the fundamentals have bottomed out or not has yet to be verified later, which means that the market will expect more policies to be introduced. It is worth mentioning that investors who believe that the above-mentioned problems of the Chinese economy cannot be reversed should not have too much expectation of “easy” transactions, because the depreciation pressure of the RMB will increase in the above-mentioned scenarios, and the Chinese economy will also be affected by the overseas stagflation pattern. It will also face more imported pressure, and the key to the future of A shares is still fundamentals rather than loose expectations.
The global stagflation pattern is becoming more and more obvious, and we still choose to stand with more important assets in the future, including energy (oil, coal), non-ferrous metals (aluminum, gold, copper, molybdenum), transportation (oil transportation, dry bulk transportation), Electricity for energy conversion. The reason for optimism in the market is still the expectation that the economy will come out of the downturn: real estate, infrastructure, and banks. Growth futures can focus on the military industry and the metaverse adapted to periods of declining real incomes.
Huaxin Securities: The holiday effect is obvious, and the second dip of A shares is coming to an end
The effect of the National Day holiday is more obvious: risk aversion is strong before the holiday, stock prices often fall and transactions are sluggish. Most of them will rise after the holiday, but it should be comprehensively judged based on the situation at home and abroad during the holiday. Generally, a stable economy can offset overseas economic fluctuations, while a weaker economy will magnify overseas market risks.
During the holiday, major overseas events continued: the US non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, OPEC+ cut production, and a 75BP hike in November became a high probability, overseas markets rose first and then declined; Russia declared that it would not launch a nuclear war, and the bottom line was clear. However, the Crimea Bridge suddenly exploded, the United States and Canada have control over chip exports to China, and geopolitical uncertainty still exists; domestic long and short are intertwined: the first is the real estate policy, ushering in the relaxation of the lower limit of mortgage interest rates, the reduction of provident fund interest rates, and tax incentives With a triple combination, follow-up policy relaxation is still to be expected. Another positive is that the central bank’s intervention has begun to show results, the exchange rate has returned from unilateral depreciation to two-way fluctuations, and sentiment and financial pressure have eased. The downside is that the National Day consumption data is not good, the travel is only 60% in previous years, and the box office hit an 8-year low.
Judging from the current situation at home and abroad, the expectations of the Fed raising interest rates fluctuate, the bottom line of geopolitical risks has been clarified, the domestic “stabilization of real estate” efforts, the policy of important domestic conferences can be expected, and the market sentiment is gradually restored, and it is expected to stabilize after shocks. However, the confirmation of the market inflection point still needs the cooperation of factors such as the improvement of the epidemic situation, the bottoming out of real estate and the catalyst of policies.
Focus on three main lines: first, domestic demand repair (benefiting from the relaxation of real estate policies, state-owned real estate enterprises and building materials related to the completion of real estate); second, independent and controllable (controlling overweighted semiconductor equipment and materials, computer information, etc.) Innovation, medical equipment), and the third is energy security (wind-solar storage in the direction of new energy, select individual stocks, pay attention to the continuation of the high boom in the third quarter report; the European energy crisis and the rebound in oil prices are good for old energy such as coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and oil transportation).
Orient Fortune Securities: Waiting for the release of risks, A-shares gradually highlight value opportunities
Overseas, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue until 2023: The OPEC+ ministerial meeting on October 5 agreed to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day from November, which will again push the global crude oil supply and demand to tense, and it is expected that Brent crude oil will rise in the fourth quarter. to $100-110. Rising energy prices will continue to push U.S. Q4 inflation at a high of 6-7%, and the Fed will strictly continue the pace of interest rate hikes. According to CME’s Febwatch tool, the U.S. benchmark interest rate will reach 4.25%-4.5% by the end of the year. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is currently at 3.83%. It is expected that the largest inversion of the Sino-U.S. interest rate gap in the next two quarters may reach 200bp. The pressure of RMB depreciation and foreign capital outflow still exists.
After patiently waiting for overseas market risks to gradually clear, A shares are expected to gradually usher in value opportunities.
A shares are valued at 16.2 times at 3024 points, which is still a certain distance from the bottom of the two bear markets of 11.6 times in April 2014 and 13.1 times in December 2018. In the long run, the technological growth track dominated by new energy will remain the focus of economic growth. Lithium ore power batteries, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic wind power storage, semiconductor chips, national defense and military industries will also lead the core direction of the high-boom industrial revolution and technological revolution.
Guohai Securities: Dare to Deploy in Market Adjustment
The recent market adjustment has been affected by both domestic and foreign risk factors. Domestically, it is mainly the epidemic situation and the real estate down cycle. Overseas, it is mainly the Fed’s hawkish interest rate hike expectations and geopolitical disturbances. At present, the A-share market sentiment index is close to freezing point, and the price/performance ratio has become prominent, so we can consider the layout of bargain-hunting.
The economy as a whole is in a pattern of steady recovery. Leading indicators and high-frequency data show that domestic demand has stabilized significantly after the economy entered the peak season. After external demand has gradually established a downward inflection point, the key to the continued upward trend of the economy lies in the real estate and the epidemic situation. At present, positive signals are accumulating. .
Liquidity is still the most likely factor to change. The rapidly rising U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar index have entered shocks. The change in slope means that the most tense time for global liquidity has passed, and it is expected to see a retreat from the Fed’s interest rate hike this year. Slope, the subsequent triple pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation, capital outflow and upward domestic risk-free interest rates will be eased.
The policy will usher in the observation window of many important meetings at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Real estate is still the main focus of the policy in the short term. In terms of the external environment, the G20 and APEC held back-to-back in November are expected to see an opportunity to improve relations between major powers, which will help in stages. to enhance the market’s risk appetite.
In terms of configuration, focus on the three main lines of post-epidemic recovery, real estate chain and economic growth. The preferred industries in October are food and beverage, pharmaceutical biology and power equipment.
Zheshang Securities: Marginal more optimistic focus on the third quarterly report
At the domestic level, real estate sales did not improve significantly in September, and follow-up attention should be paid to the inflection point of real estate sales and the strength of demand-side policies. The exchange rate level may continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the central bank’s exchange rate control measures. The investment direction is to maintain the two recommended directions of travel consumption chain + new manufacturing stable growth (manufacturing strong chain and “new energy +”).
At the overseas level, the expectation of overseas monetary tightening pushes the 10-year US bond rate and the US dollar to still have room to rise. The former may exceed 4%, and the latter may exceed 115. Gold will be blocked in the short term but the bullish direction will not change in the medium term. After the interest rate peaks, gold will usher in an important allocation window.
In terms of indices, we see a marginally more positive outlook for October compared to September. First, combined with the stock-to-bond income ratio, the current market valuation is in the historical bottom range; second, whether it is a popular track or a fund’s heavily held stocks, after the adjustment, the transaction congestion has been greatly released; third, with the The opening of the third quarterly report will provide more clues to the market’s prosperity.
In terms of structure, the core clue for October lies in the third quarterly report. Combining the upward or downward revision of Wind’s unanimous forecast since July, the forecast for the third quarterly report includes: upstream electric vehicles, pig farming, coal, oil and gas, photovoltaic equipment, semiconductor materials, photovoltaic energy storage, mid-stream electric vehicles, Industrial gas, photovoltaic downstream, aero-engine, electric vehicle downstream, rare earth magnetic materials, chemical raw materials, industrial automation, beer, cloud computing, Internet of Vehicles, etc. According to statistical laws, these tracks have a high probability of third-quarter earnings growth in the relatively top.
Huaxi Securities: The adjustment is coming to an end, welcoming the third quarterly report disclosure period
The manufacturing industry has returned to the expansion range, and follow-up attention will be paid to the effect of the policy to stabilize the real estate. The manufacturing PMI recorded 50.1% in September, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. On the sub-item, only the production index was higher than the critical point, indicating that domestic demand is still weak. Affected by the spread of the local epidemic, the service industry PMI in September fell by 3pct from August to 48.9%; external demand continued to shrink, and the PMI new export orders in September fell by 1.1 percentage points from August.
In the fourth quarter, with the advancement of overseas interest rate hikes, the slowdown in external demand will still have a depressing effect on my country’s exports. Since the end of September, the central bank, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other ministries and commissions have intensively introduced real estate stimulus policies, and follow-up attention will be paid to the marginal improvement of real estate sales.
The valuation of the main A-share index is close to the year’s low. The A-share market has continued to adjust since mid-September. From the perspective of valuation, risk premium and other indicators, the current A-share safety margin is relatively sufficient. The latest price-earnings ratios (excluding negative values) of Wind Quan A, SSE 50, and CSI 300 are 13.00 times, 9.36 times, and 10.48 times, respectively, all lower than the valuation level at the low point of the year on April 27; the ChiNext refers to the price-earnings ratio ( Excluding negative values) is 36.29 times, which is closer to the valuation on April 27 (36.08 times). At present, the market has taken into account more pessimistic expectations. After continuous adjustment in September, the sentiment of A-shares may be blunted by overseas negative factors.
Investment advice: The adjustment is coming to an end, and the third quarterly report disclosure period is welcome. Overseas markets fluctuated widely during the National Day holiday, indicating that global risk appetite is still disturbed by factors such as the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations, OPEC+’s sharp production cuts, and concerns about a slowing economic outlook. At the same time, the further increase in the domestic real estate stabilization policy and the progress in securing the delivery of buildings are expected to support the marginal improvement of the domestic economy. From a spatial point of view, the current market has included more pessimistic expectations, and the valuation of the main A-share index is close to the previous low, and the adjustment may be coming to an end. After the holiday, A-shares will nurture opportunities in shocks. During the intensive disclosure period of quarterly reports in October, the market will refocus on the main line of performance.
In terms of industry allocation, focus on “3” investment main lines: 1) benefit from the continuous relaxation of the “city-specific policy” policy: real estate, etc.; 2) the new energy sector is subdivided into high-prosperity areas, such as “energy storage, wind, light”, etc. 3) Traditional energy related, such as “coal, oil and gas equipment”, etc.; the theme focuses on “innovation, independent and controllable”, etc.