China’s Exports and Imports continue to decline in June
July 13, 2023
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China’s exports in June this year fell by 12.4% year-on-year in US dollars. Additionally, imports fell by 6.8%, resulting in a trade surplus of US$70.62 billion. These figures were weaker than market expectations across the board.
This marks the second consecutive month of declining exports and imports, with the decline expanding compared to the previous month. In May, exports fell by 7.5% year-on-year, and imports fell by 4.5%, resulting in a trade surplus of US$65.81 billion.
The trend of declining trade started to reverse in March this year when China’s exports unexpectedly surged by 14.8%. At the same time, the decline in imports narrowed sharply to 1.4%, achieving a trade surplus of US$88.19 billion.
However, the positive growth didn’t last long. In July last year, China’s trade data showed an increase in exports by 18% year-on-year, imports increased by 2.3%, and the trade surplus reached US$101.26 billion. But starting from August, the growth rate began to slow down significantly. Exports fell by 0.3% in October, followed by a further decline in November and December.
Both exports and imports in June were weaker than market expectations, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. Economists surveyed predicted a 9.2% year-on-year decline in exports and a 4.0% decline in imports, resulting in an estimated trade surplus of US$74 billion.
In cumulative data for the first half of the year, exports denominated in US dollars fell by 3.2% year-on-year, while imports fell by 6.7%, achieving a trade surplus of US$408.69 billion. In the first five months of the year, exports increased by only 0.3% year-on-year, while imports fell by 6.7%.
In 2022, China’s exports are expected to increase by 7.0% year-on-year in dollar terms, with imports set to increase by 1.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of US$877.6 billion.
China Customs also revealed data denominated in RMB. In RMB terms, China’s exports in June fell by 8.3% year-on-year, while imports fell by 2.6%. The trade surplus in RMB terms reached 491.25 billion yuan.
Cumulatively, in the first half of the year, exports increased by 3.7% year-on-year in RMB terms, while imports decreased by 0.1%. The trade surplus in RMB terms amounted to 2.82 trillion yuan. In the first five months of the year, exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports increased by 0.5%, resulting in a trade surplus of 2.47 trillion yuan.
Looking ahead, China’s exports are projected to increase by 10.5% year-on-year in RMB terms, with imports expected to increase by 4.3%, leading to a trade surplus of 5,862.98 billion yuan.
It remains to be seen how China’s trade performance will progress in the coming months as various factors, including international trade tensions and the global economic situation, continue to shape the landscape.
(This article is from Dow Jones Chinese Financial News)