CBOT Grains: Corn fell 31% in 2023, beans fell 15%, wheat fell 21%, U.S. soybean supply is expected to increase in 2024, paying attention to the impact of El Niño
As 2023 came to a close, futures prices for corn, beans, and wheat took a hit with corn falling 3 cents to settle at $4.7125 a bushel, while wheat dropped 3.5 cents to $6.28 per bushel and soybeans fell 14 cents to $12.98 per bushel. The year 2023 saw Chicago corn prices fall by 31%, representing its largest decline since 2013, while wheat futures were down 21% and soybean futures fell 15%.
Factors contributing to these declines include a bumper Brazilian harvest and a strong Black Sea trade which eased worries about geopolitical conflict and weather. The world of grains and soybeans is expected to see a shift away from rising prices caused by harvest setbacks, the coronavirus pandemic, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In terms of supply and demand, Russia’s wheat exports have significantly increased due to another bumper harvest, while Ukrainian grain transportation volume has also picked up through a new transportation channel.
In the U.S., the Department of Agriculture reported that soybean export sales were in line with trade expectations, while wheat sales were near the low end of the forecast range and corn sales were near the high end of the forecast range.
Looking ahead to 2024, U.S. soybean supply is expected to increase, with producers focusing on input costs and potentially prioritizing planting soybeans. However, crop markets could face supply constraints due to adverse weather impacts related to El Niño, export restrictions, and higher biofuel mandates. Analysts are closely monitoring crop conditions in Brazil to see if recent rains and expected widespread showers will curb drought damage in central and northern regions.
As the new year unfolds, farmers and traders will continue to keep a close eye on the impact of El Niño on crop markets, as well as the potential for increased U.S. soybean supply and the ongoing global grain and soybean trade dynamics.