There are many challenges facing the new government. According to the analysis of the Cgia Research Department, “one of the most difficult winters of the last 50 years is coming”. According to the association, to save the budgets of families and businesses, in fact, it will be necessary to use at least 70 billion euros by the end of the year. Of these, 35 to halve the expensive bills and the same number, with the 2023 Budget law, so as not to let some measures introduced by the outgoing government lapse from next January. The situation is critical: the new executive will have to do the impossible to recover all these resources without resorting to an increase in the deficit, given that, at most, he will be able to benefit from a “treasury” that could reach 25 billion euros. If it fails to recover another 45, we risk a very complicated 2023. According to the latest forecasts, in fact, as many as 6 out of 10 provinces will record negative growth.
To halve the expensive energy, at least 35 billion are needed
According to an estimate by the Cgia Studies Office, to mitigate the expensive energy, the new government should find by 31 December at least 35 billion euros to halve the cost increases for households and businesses expected in 2022. net of the 58 billion in aid disbursed this year against high bills, they amount to a total of 70 billion euros. This is why, according to the CGIA, another 30 billion euros are needed, to which 5 billion must be added to extend the effects against the increase in bills introduced with the Aid ter decree also to next December.
A 2023 Budget Law of at least 35 billion
Given the very tight times, even approving the next budget law on time will not be easy: by law the definitive vote will have to take place by 31 December, otherwise the provisional exercise could take place. Therefore, the time available is very tight and it will not be easy to find all the resources to confirm, also for the coming year, many measures introduced by the Draghi government which, it is estimated, quantifiable in 35 billion euros, divided as follows:
almost 15 billion euros to renew in the first quarter the measures against high energy costs envisaged by the Aid ter decree; at least € 8.5 billion to index pensions; at least 5 billion for the renewal of the public employment contract; € 4.5 billion for the 2 per cent contribution discount for employees with an income of up to € 35,000; 2 billion euros of non-deferrable expenses.
These are resources, those just listed, which do not include any other measures; much less those that were at the center of the very recent electoral campaign. Such as the extension of the flat tax, the minimum pensions of 1,000 euros, the cut of the tax wedge, etc.
The new executive can count on a “treasury” of 25 billion
The “treasure”, which the new government will “inherit” from the outgoing premier Draghi, could be 20 billion euros: 10 to be used immediately and another 10 to be used in the 2023 maneuver. Resources that have been “recovered” without creating a new deficit, thanks to the fact that in the last year the outgoing executive has managed to keep the accounts in order. Further help could also come from Brussels which is about to develop a measure that will make it possible to recover the European structural funds 2014-2020 not yet spent or not committed in a binding manner. Our country could have between 4-5 billion euros available. Therefore, against 70 billion in expenses to be committed in just over 2 months, the new government can count on a coverage of around 25 billion. If you do not want to make any other budget variance, it will certainly not be easy to find 45 billion euros in a short time.
Bitter 2023 forecasts: 6 out of 10 provinces in recession
Although never as at this moment making economic forecasts is particularly difficult, according to all the main research institutes, however, 2023 will be very difficult. Of the 107 provinces monitored by Prometeia, for example, 67 (equal to 62 percent of the total) will record negative growth next year. If at a national level the GDP (or rather the real added value) is zero, the differences at the provincial level will be quite limited, even if some positive surprises will occur: such as the performance of some realities in the South.
Even if it is zero point, among the provinces that will record positive growth next year we point out, in particular, Rome, Belluno, Viterbo, Fermo and Bari (all with +0.3 percent), Venice, Foggia and Modena (with +0.4 percent), Cremona, Verona and Bologna (with +0.5 percent), Salerno and Savona (both with + 0.6 percent). Finally, the regional capital of Lombardy will lead the ranking at national level. In the province of Milan, in fact, the increase in added value will touch +0.8 per cent. The most critical situations, on the other hand, will concern Pisa, Cagliari, Ragusa, Messina and Macerata (all with a decrease in growth of 0.8 percent), Enna and Rovigo (both with – 0.9 percent) and Vibo Valentia ( with -1 percent).
Finally, it should be noted that there are many provinces that have not yet recovered the level of wealth we had in the pre-Covid period (2019). The situations of greatest delay can be seen in Siena (-1.9 per cent), Prato (-2), Belluno (-2.2) and Pisa (-2.3). Finally, black jersey for the provinces of Campobasso and Vibo Valentia (-2.4).