Summary
[CITIC Construction Investment: Treasury bond yields fluctuate slightly after the holiday, with momentum for recovery]Looking forward to the next stage, my country’s bond market will usher in a “three wide” pattern of “wide fiscal, wide currency, and wide credit”. The probability is on the rise. The probability of a rebound in yields in the coming years is on the rise. The specific motives mainly focus on rising supply, expectations of rising U.S. Treasury yields, market seasonal factors, and inflation expectations.
This week, the overall yields of various maturities of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds fluctuated slightly.In terms of yields of major products, the 1-year treasury bond yields fell 5.01BP to 2.3327% this week, the 2-year treasury yields fell 1.97BP to 2.4912%, and the 3-year treasury yields fell 3.04BP to 2.5122%, and the 5-year bond yields Treasury bond yields fell 0.72BP to 2.7134%, 7-year treasury bond yields rose 0.19BP to 2.8540%, 10-year treasury bond yields rose 0.57BP to 2.8776%, and 10-year maturity spreads widened 5.58BP to 54.49BP .PolicyBankIn terms of debt, the 10-year China Development Bank rose 1.51BP to 3.1976%, and the 10-yearimport and exportThe bond fell by 1.58BP to 3.3009%, the 10-year Agricultural Development Bank bond fell by 0.52BP to 3.3043%, and the yield of the government financial bond fell mainly due to the overall fluctuation.
Funding this weekinterest rateVarieties of various maturities were mixed as a whole, and the central bank continued to pass the inverseRepurchaseOther tools have taken care of the market, and the funding side has been stable across the seasons.To the close of September 30, DR001 reported 2.0852%, last week’s value was 1.6737%, DR007 reported 2.2743%, last week’s value was 2.0722%. Looking at it all week,BankbetweenPledgeRepo weightedinterest rate1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M rose by 51.74BP, rose by 23.27BP, fell by 8.82BP, and fell by 8.71BP, depository institutionsPledged repoWeighted interest rates (DR) 1D, 7D, and 14D rose by 41.15BP, 20.21BP, and 11.45BP, respectively. SHIBOR overnight, 1W, 2W, and 3M rose by 52.50BP, 4.70BP, 26.10BP, and 3.40BP respectively.
Outlook for the future: 1) The profit data of industrial enterprises in August will be released within the week, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the cyclical industry profits have risen against the trend.In August, industrial enterprises were approvedOperating income80 trillion, 23.9% year-on-year, a two-year compound growth rate of 9.8%; August profit was 5.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year 49.5%, and a two-year compound growth rate of 19.5%. Looking at the previous value, the operating income of industrial enterprises in July was 69.5 trillion yuan, 25.6% year-on-year, and a two-year compound growth rate of 9.9%; July profit was 4.92 trillion yuan, which was 57.3% year-on-year, and a two-year compound growth rate of 20.2%.2) The third quarterly regular meeting of the central bank was held, economic judgment continued to be cautious, and maintenance was emphasizedreal estateThe healthy development of the market.We believe that the main tone of housing and housing is not speculation, and in the near futurereal estateMarket rectification is conducive to preventionreal estateThe potential systemic risks of the market are conducive to maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market in the medium and long term.3) September manufacturingSMEsThe data released fell back from the previous month and fell below the critical point.The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry in September was 49.6%, 0.5 percentage points lower than last month, and the manufacturing industry’s prosperity level has fallen. In terms of structure, the sub-items below the critical level mainly include medium-sized enterprises, small enterprises, production, new orders, raw material inventory, employees and supplier delivery time index.4) At present, the continuous spread of the impact of the epidemic and the decrease in sensitivity margins coexist. The overall resonant recovery of the global economy and structural pressure coexist. The recovery is still unstable and uneven, regional differentiation, industry differentiation, major power relations, climate change and other uncertainties. Sexual disturbances also need to be considered.Looking forward to the next stage, my country’s bond market will usher incurrencyThe probability of the “three-wide” pattern of “wide credit” is on the rise, and the probability of a yield rebound in October is on the rise. The specific reasons mainly focus on the upward supply of supply, the upward expectation of U.S. bond yields, market seasonal factors, and inflation expectations.
(Source: Wentao Macro Bond Research)
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