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Recently, a research report by CITIC Securities circulated on the Internet in China, which stated that China may announce a progressively delayed retirement plan this year, and achieve retirement at the same age as men and women aged 65 by around 2055. Rumors ignited public opinion on social media. Online comments are almost overwhelmingly opposed and worried. Some experts have analyzed that the reform is imperative and should not be done sooner or later.
progressively delayed retirement
According to the recently circulated research report of CITIC Securities, the Chinese government will announce a progressively delayed retirement plan this year, and achieve the same retirement age for men and women aged 65 by around 2055. According to the regulations of the State Council of China, the current retirement age in China is 60 for men, 55 for female cadres and 50 for female workers.
The staff of CITIC Securities told the Chinese media that the company’s official website has not published this research report, and cannot guarantee the authenticity of the information circulated on the Internet. The social security bureaus in Beijing, Hunan and Guizhou stated that they had not received any notice of delayed retirement.
But as soon as the rumors came out, the Internet exploded, and many people complained that the delay in retirement harmed their own interests.
Some netizens complained that life is not easy, because in mainland China, it is difficult for many people over the age of 35 to find a job.
Weibo netizen “I don’t want to eat oranges” said: “Rising housing prices, three-child policy, medical insurance reform, delayed retirement, can they still leave a way for young people to survive? I feel under a lot of pressure and feel that I will not live to be 65.”
“It’s okay to delay the payment of pensions, so what will these 60-65 old people do during the few years of delay?” Netizen “Public Opinion Detective” said, “Let’s not talk about 60 years old, jobs after 35 years old I am worried, is paying this social security a gamble on one of my life expectancy?”
Weibo netizen “Fang Shizi” pointed out that many people have misunderstood the meaning of delaying retirement, not that they must work until the age of 65. “Delaying retirement is essentially delaying receiving pensions. Less, there are more elderly people, and the pension is not enough to pay, and receiving pension a few years later can save the country a lot of money.”
“The general trend”
Amid heated discussions among netizens, China’s official media “Global Times” recently published a signed commentary article, in which Shen Shuguang, vice president of the Chinese Society of Social Security, said: “With the deepening of the aging population and the changes in the socio-economic situation, , Delaying retirement should be said to be the general trend.”
However, he also pointed out that the reform of postponing the retirement age is a major decision for the society and the people’s livelihood, so it is advisable to adopt a gradual reform and gradually implement it in a relatively small range. The pace is generally gentle, giving people enough time to adapt and adjust.
In fact, last year, Chinese authorities mentioned the urgency of delaying retirement reform several times in official documents.
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Chinese leader Xi Jinping once stated in the report of the 20th National Congress that the national overall planning system for basic pension insurance should be improved, a multi-level and multi-pillar pension insurance system should be developed, and the statutory retirement age should be gradually delayed.
In December 2022, China’s Central Economic Work Conference was held, which also proposed to improve the fertility support policy system, timely implement the policy of gradually delaying the statutory retirement age, and actively respond to the aging population and declining birth rate.
And China’s pension balance is also a cause for concern. According to the “China Pension Actuarial Report 2019-2050” of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, it is predicted that the pension will not be able to cover the expenditure in 2028, and the accumulated balance will be exhausted in 2035.
“Imperative”
Yi Fuxian, a researcher and demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (University of Wisconsin-Madison), pointed out to BBC Chinese that delaying retirement is imperative. If it is not delayed gradually, a sudden delay in the future will lead to greater social unrest.
Yi Fuxian pointed out that the reform of the retirement system in Britain, France, Russia and other places had met with fierce public opposition and large-scale protests.
Recently, the French government proposed to postpone the retirement age from 62 to 64, triggering hundreds of thousands of people to take to the streets to protest.
“Postponing the retirement age will affect the interests of many people, and it is inevitable to spark heated discussions, which will lead to large-scale protests in the future,” Yi Fuxian said.
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Yi Fuxian also pointed out that for the Chinese authorities, they are faced with a dilemma, because the family planning has reduced the young consumption population, resulting in a serious shortage of domestic demand and an additional labor force of hundreds of millions.
Yi Fuxian analyzed that other economies are more driven by household consumption, while China’s economy is more driven by exports. In order to absorb excess capacity and ease employment pressure, China always pursues a trade surplus, most of which comes from the United States.
“China relies on its export surplus to ensure the employment of hundreds of millions of laborers. But now that Sino-US relations have deteriorated, the industrial chain has shifted outwards, exports have declined, and domestic demand cannot guarantee employment at all. If retirement is delayed, it will make the job market worse,” said Yi Fuxian .