An increase in the consumer confidence climate index is estimated in December (from 98.1 to 102.5). This was communicated by Istat, explaining that it is the second consecutive increase, mainly due to a positive evolution of opinions on the country’s economic situation (including those on unemployment); the variables relating to the personal situation recorded a more limited improvement.
All the series making up the consumer confidence index are improving except for assessments on the household budget. The four indicators calculated monthly starting from the same components increase, albeit with different intensities, reflecting the variations recorded by the individual variables surveyed. In particular, the economic climate and the future climate recorded the strongest increases (respectively from 95.2 to 106.3 and from 102.8 to 108.2); personal and current climate increased to a lesser extent (in the order from 99.0 to 101.2 and from 94.9 to 98.6).
Good expectations for services and construction
In December, the composite index of business confidence increased from 106.5 to 107.8. Istat always communicates it, explaining that this is the second consecutive increase, reaching a level in any case lower than the average for the period January-November 2022. The increase in the index is mainly conveyed by judgments and expectations in improvement both in the services sector and in that of construction.
With reference to businesses, the climate of confidence improves in all sectors with the exception of manufacturing. In more detail, market services and especially construction recorded the most marked increases (the index rose from 99.0 to 102.3 and from 151.9 to 156.6, respectively); in retail trade a slight increase in the index is estimated (from 112.4 to 112.6) while in manufacturing confidence is worsening (the index goes from 102.5 to 101.4). Considering the components of confidence climates calculated for each economic sector investigated, it can be seen that in market services and construction all the variables are improving. In the retail trade, assessments on sales are clearly improving while related expectations are decreasing; inventories are judged to have increased compared to last month. Finally, in the manufacturing sector all the components are worsening.
Confcommercio: desire to return to normality
«It is a good sign for the prospects of the Italian economy at the end of an extraordinarily complicated year. The current phase of productive withdrawal could, therefore, be confined to a mild and transitory episode”. This is the comment of the Confcommercio Research Office on the Istat data on consumer and business confidence released today. «The future scenario, on the whole, is certainly not reassuring – he underlines -: inflation should still be lively and growing, nor have the deleterious effects of a new possible flare-up in the prices of energy raw materials been averted. But the desire to return to normality in consumption, the good health of expectations and the continuation of the policy of public support for businesses and households bodes well for the next difficult months as well”.