Source: Huaan Futures Author: Huaan Futures
Research report text
【cottoncotton yarn]
【Market analysis】: Last week, the price of US cotton fluctuated and went down. The weekly US cotton export report showed that China resumed purchasing, and the signing and shipment increased.
Market confidence has recovered under the background of China’s liberalization, and the purchasing behavior of spinning mills has increased.
We believe that in the short term, US cotton may have a slight upside under the support of demand.domestic last weekZheng MianThe market maintained a slight upward trend.
Although the spinning mills have entered the holiday cycle one after another, the purchase has not been substantially increased, and the pattern of oversupply of cotton in the upstream has not changed, but the strong expectation is still to push the cotton price to “take a small step” by its own efforts.
The current rise in cotton prices is a situation that both hedgers and speculators are happy to see. However, subject to the weak reality, the increase in cotton prices is limited.
Considering that the stocking behavior of textile enterprises has increased after the year, the increase in cotton prices is limited before the year, and it is easy to rise but hard to fall after the year.
【Investment Strategy】: Futures investment strategy: CF2305 contract dips and wet positions; option investment strategy: bull market spread or long volatility strategy.
【starchcorn】
【Market analysis】: On December 30, the spot price of domestic corn was stable and mixed. The current price of the second-grade corn with 14% moisture in the benchmark Liaoning State was temporarily stable at 2,810 yuan/ton, and the main overnight corn C2303 rose 0.25% to 2,824.
The US market is on the strong side. At present, the supply and demand of the corn market is loose, new crops of domestic corn are on the market and imports are increasing, downstream companies are nearing completion of stocking, and demand is weakening due to poor profits, but with cost support, futures prices are expected to fluctuate sideways.
In the long run, we are bullish on corn in the context of global corn supply reduction.
Corn starch: The spot price of domestic corn starch has risen steadily by 10-20 yuan/ton. The market price of first-class corn starch of Jilin Changchun national standard is temporarily stable at 2,930 yuan/ton. The overnight main force of corn starch CS2301 fell 0.03% to 2,939 yuan /Ton.
The weak supply and demand of corn starch is negative for futures prices, and the launch of new production capacity will promote the increase of production, but the market demand remains weak.
[Investment Strategy]: It is recommended to buy C2303 on dips.
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