Source: Shenyin Wanguo Author: Shenyin Wanguo Futures
The text of the research report
1. Macro news
(1) International news The US CPI data shows that the US CPI in August without a seasonally adjusted annual rate recorded an annual rate of 8.3%, exceeding market expectations of 8.1%, and the previous value of 8.5%. The U.S. unseasonably adjusted core CPI recorded an annual rate of 6.3% in August, the highest since March 2022.
Fed swaps fully price in a 75bps rate hike by the Fed in September after the surprise CPI data. U.S. President Joe Biden said the data showed “progress” had been made in curbing inflation, but “more time” was needed.
The Fed has reason to raise rates by at least 75 basis points at its meeting next week, raising the prospect of a sharp hike in the coming months.
Market expectations for a 100 basis point rate hike by the Fed in September rose to 47% from 22% at one point. Former US Treasury Secretary Summers also believes that the Fed will choose to raise interest rates by 100 basis points in September.
(2) Domestic news According to the National Development and Reform Commission, it is generally judged that the expected CPI control target of about 3% this year can be achieved. The State Council’s Steady Economic Market Supervision and Service Team held an on-site office meeting in Zhengzhou to carry out on-site coordination and services around the construction of infrastructure, key projects, and people’s livelihood security projects.
Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at the “19th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum” that he will unswervingly promote the high-level opening of the futures market. Promote the two-way opening of treasury bond futures.
Complete all preparations as soon as possible, open up QFIIs and RQFIIs to participate in commodity futures, commodity options and stock index options products, and provide overseas traders with more abundant risk management tools.
2. Industry information
OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report and maintained its forecast for strong growth in global oil demand in 2022 and 2023, as major economies performed better than expected despite headwinds such as soaring inflation.
OPEC said in its monthly report that oil demand is expected to rise by 3.1 million bpd in 2022 and 2.7 million bpd in 2023, unchanged from last month. Global oil demand will remain unchanged from last month’s report at 102.7 million bpd in 2023.
Notably, Saudi Arabia boosted production to 11.051 million bpd in August, an increase of 236,000 bpd. Biden administration officials are considering buying crude oil when it falls to around $80 a barrel to replenish emergency strategic oil reserves, protect U.S. oil production growth and prevent crude prices from plunging.
At the same time, officials are also trying to convince producers that the government will not let oil prices crash and slow the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to keep oil markets steady during the winter.
3. Comments and strategies
Polyester:PTArebounded, MEG rebounded again. At present, the price of US crude oil at the cost end is weak, with wide fluctuations in the range, and the start of downstream polyester factories has slightly warmed up.
In the industry, there are still many PTA maintenance and production shutdown loads, and the overall start-up is still not high. The high spot premiums make the basis continuously stronger; the ethylene glycol start-up declines again, and the arrival volume is disturbed, which drives the port to depot obviously. The downstream polyester start-up load has picked up slightly, and the market demand is still poor.
In terms of inventory, PTA continued to go to the warehouse, and MEG ports continued to go to the warehouse. On the whole, downstream consumption is picking up, paying attention to changes in cost and polyester demand.
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