Beijing time on Monday (May 1), this week focuses on the Fed’s interest rate resolution, the European Central Bank’s interest rate resolution and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate resolution; in addition, pay attention to the US non-agricultural data and the progress of the geopolitical situation. Under the influence of many important factors, the market fluctuates this week Or increase, need to be cautious.
monday preview
market news
Big Japanese buyers see LNG prices likely to surge again this year
Large Japanese LNG buyers say the market could see more volatility this year. Yukio Kani, chairman of Jera Co., Japan’s largest power producer, said spot LNG prices had retreated from last year’s record highs, but that was largely due to good luck last winter, which was less warmer than expected demand for this fuel. This winter, with increased import capacity in Europe, prices could spike again if bad weather hits. Buyers had no chance to “let their guard down,” Kani said. While the company expects Japan’s LNG demand to decline over the next decade, demand could unexpectedly remain flat as more data centers and semiconductor plants are built, Kani said.
Recently, the national tourism market has continued to pick up, and ancient towns in various places have ushered in a spring boom
Spring and Jingming, cultural tourism is heating up, and the quaint ancient town is becoming a popular place to check in. However, when people are ready to experience the culture of ancient towns and appreciate the beauty of ancient towns with great interest, they find that the development and construction of many ancient towns are homogeneous, and the longer they are, the more similar they are. If things go on like this, it is bound to affect the experience of tourists visiting the ancient town. In fact, each ancient town has its unique cultural connotation and aesthetic characteristics after years of baptism. The interviewed experts said that it is necessary to carefully sort out the historical origins, fully tap the unique cultural symbols of each ancient town, and strike a balance between commercialization and cultural protection and inheritance. Only in this way can the development of the ancient town become wider and wider.
Japan will have 824 kinds of food prices increase in May
According to the survey results recently released by the Imperial Japan Database, 824 kinds of food will increase in price in May, mainly alcoholic beverages and beverages, as well as processed food. Since many companies have already raised prices in April at the beginning of the year to digest the rise in raw material prices, the number of products whose prices have increased is less than 1,000 for the first time in four months. However, about 3,300 kinds of food such as instant noodles have plans to increase prices in June. After July, more than 2,000 items are expected to be subject to price increases, due to the price adjustment of imported wheat and the price increase of fresh milk. According to the analysis of the Imperial Database, “the trend of intermittent price increases will continue at least until this autumn.”
French Finance Minister: France will continue to promote structural reforms
The international rating agency Fitch announced on the 28th that it has downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating. On the 29th local time, French Minister of Economy, Finance and Industry, and Digital Sovereignty Le Maire said that although Fitch downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating and worried that recent reforms would have a negative impact on the economy and debt reduction, France will still Continue to push for your own structural reforms.
U.S. FDIC asks JPMorgan, Bank of America and other four banks to bid for First Republic Bank
The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has asked JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services Group, US Bancorp, and Bank of America to bid for First Republic Bank. 30). Bank of America is considering whether to formally submit an acquisition intention, and spokesmen for the other three banks declined to comment. In addition, Citizens Financial Group also participated in the bidding.
Mid-term Association: In April, the trading volume and turnover of the national futures market increased by 43.26% and 8.09% respectively year-on-year
The latest statistics from the China Futures Association show that, on a unilateral basis, the trading volume of the national futures trading market in April was 672,379,797 lots, with a turnover of 44,155.497 billion yuan, an increase of 43.26% and 8.09% year-on-year, and a decrease of 7.19% and 11.52% month-on-month . From January to April, the cumulative trading volume of the national futures market was 2,335,718,479 lots, and the cumulative turnover was 165,051.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.62% and a decrease of 2.60% respectively.
precious metal
Gold rallied on Friday as falling yields and renewed worries about turmoil in the U.S. banking sector lifted the safe asset to its second monthly gain even as steady U.S. inflation strengthened bets for a rate hike next week. rise.
The Fed delivered a detailed and scathing review of its failure to spot problems and push for a fix before the Silicon Valley bank collapsed, promising stronger oversight and tougher rules.
The Fed’s report coincided with a drop in 10-year yields, turning gold higher, “but it all depends on what (Fed Chairman Powell) says next week,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, an indicator of 10 Yields on U.S. Treasury notes fell after data showed the pace of headline inflation slowed in March and consumer spending held steady. But the data also suggested that core inflationary pressures remained strong, prompting traders to increase bets on a rate hike next week.
Gold climbed to a one-year peak of $2,048.71 in mid-April as the banking crisis unfolded.
Silver was steady at $24.95 an ounce, platinum was flat at $1,077.04 and palladium rose 0.1 percent to $1,496.47, all on track for a second straight monthly gain.
Oil prices mostly rose more than 2% on Friday after strong earnings from energy companies, with U.S. data showing crude output falling while fuel demand rose.But both Brent and WTI futures fell for a second week in a row, with Brent posting a fourth straight monthly decline, as disappointing U.S. economic data and uncertainty over interest rates weighed on the outlook for demand.
“Markets have been down for much of the week on fears of a looming recession and the widening of the First Republic crisis, however, today’s news that problems at First Republic may There are solutions and there are data showing oil demand is up and production is down,” Flynn said.
U.S. officials are coordinating emergency talks to rescue First Republic Bank after private discussions led by advisers to the bank have yet to reach a deal, according to three sources familiar with the situation.
U.S. crude oil production fell to 12.483 million bpd in February, the lowest since December 2022, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Friday. U.S. crude and product supplies, which signal demand, rose to 19.997 million bpd, the highest since November 2022.
Crude oil prices have declined in recent weeks and months amid concerns that higher interest rates could reduce demand.
Brent crude is down about 3% this week after falling about 5% last week, while U.S. crude futures are down about 1% for the week after falling about 6% last week.
Brent crude slipped less than 1 percent last month, while U.S. crude rose about 1 percent. It was the first monthly rise in U.S. crude oil prices in six months.
U.S. consumer spending was flat in March as a rise in spending on services was offset by a drop in spending on goods, but core inflationary pressures remained strong and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates again this week.
foreign exchange
The dollar rose on Friday after data showed U.S. inflation rose in March, albeit at a slower pace, keeping the Fed firmly on track to raise interest rates next week.
The yen, meanwhile, fell across the board after the Bank of Japan, as expected, said it would keep interest rates ultra-low and unanimously decided not to make changes to its yield curve control (YCC) policy.
The yen slumped to its weakest against the euro since September 2008 and its weakest against the dollar in seven weeks. EUR/JPY was last up 1.5% at 150. For the week, the euro rose 1.8 percent against the yen.
USD/JPY, on the other hand, was last up 1.7% at 136.235, putting it up 1.6% for the week, its best week since late February.
The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback’s value against six major currencies, rose 0.2% to 101.65.
Data on Friday showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% in March after rising 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the PCE price index rose 4.2 percent after climbing 5.1 percent in February.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core PCE prices rose 0.3%, the same pace as in February. The so-called core PCE price index rose 4.7% in March from a year earlier. 4.6%. The Fed tracks the PCE price index to achieve its 2 percent inflation target.
“You’d probably need a bigger slowdown to reassure the Fed that it’s successfully done its job; not yet, that hasn’t changed (policymakers are down Weekly) outlook.” After the inflation data, the interest rate futures market had priced in a 90 percent chance of a 25 basis point hike next week.
The dollar extended gains after another report on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 63.5 in April, up from a three-month low of 62 in March. U.S. consumers’ one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6 percent this month from 3.6 percent in March, further supporting rate hike expectations and also boosting the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1017.
Economic data showed mixed growth and inflation across the euro zone, adding to uncertainty over the size of the ECB’s expected rate hike next week. Preliminary data showed that euro zone gross domestic product rose 0.1 percent in the first quarter, below the 0.2 percent forecast in a Reuters poll.
The euro fell more in early trade but pared losses as investors sold the yen against the euro. This also spilled over into the EUR/USD crosses. “We think the balance of odds is gradually shifting in favor of the dollar, a ‘Goldilocks’ mechanism for stronger activity data outside the U.S.,” Jonathan Petersen, senior market economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note. Appears to be fading, and we expect the greenback to benefit from safe-haven demand once the global growth picture begins to deteriorate more sharply in the coming months.”