Financial Lianliankan | Weekly stock market review What changes will the record-breaking A-share turnover bring?Fly into the homes of ordinary people
A new record was born this week. As of September 24, A-shares had 46 consecutive trading days with a turnover exceeding one trillion yuan, breaking the record of 43 consecutive trading days with a turnover exceeding one trillion yuan from May to July 2015. The market was not affected by the surrounding markets this week, and the overall performance was stable. Although the current transaction volume has set a historical record, the market has neither surged nor plummeted, indicating that the current trillion-dollar market is completely different from the nature of 2015. We must treat the current day-quantity market with a normal mind.
The market opened low and moved high this week, basically flat
During the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, overseas stock markets fluctuated sharply. This Monday, from the Asia-Pacific stock market to Europe and the United States, there was a significant decline, casting a shadow on A shares. On the first trading day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, A shares opened lower across the board. The index opened low at 3563.21 points, but after the opening, the market went up all the way, and returned to 3,600 points at the close, and finally closed with a red plate of 14.52 points.
On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index once rose by more than 40 points and closed up 10 points; late Friday, it fell 29 points, and finally the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3613.07 points, which was basically the same as last week’s closing position. This week it only slightly fell 0.9 points. The Shanghai Composite Index overall keep stable.
Caption: Weekly K-line chart of Shanghai Composite Index
The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,357.85 points on Friday, only slightly down 1.51 points this week, basically the same as last week. The ChiNext Index closed at 3207.82 points on Friday, a slight increase of 0.46% this week.
Caption: SZSE Component Index Weekly K-line Chart
Although there are only three trading days this week, A shares have not been affected by overseas stock market disturbances, their performance has been stable, and they are still running on their own tracks, showing the independence of A shares.
The most noteworthy thing this week is the trading volume. The daily trading volume for 3 consecutive days exceeded one trillion yuan. Thus, as of September 24, the trading volume of A shares has exceeded one trillion yuan for 45 consecutive trading days. From 8th to July 8th, the historical record of 43 consecutive trading days with a turnover exceeding one trillion yuan was severely stepped on.
Caption: Weekly K-line chart of the ChiNext Index
Caption: Weekly K-line chart of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index
Ordinarily treat record turnover
Although the turnover has broken historical records, this round of market, both the increase and the volatility, is far smaller than in 2015. In the volume of the market in 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index has seen a maximum increase of 64% in more than three months since March 2015, but fell back to its original position in the next three months. Such a huge shock caused investors to suffer heavy losses. But this time, the volume of the market, from the end of July to the present, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by only 9%, the correction rate is also very small, and the market is stable.
This difference is mainly due to the different sources of funds for the two market conditions. In 2015, it was leveraged funds for financing and over-the-counter allocations. The entry of funds into the market caused individual stocks to rise sharply, and the ebb tide plummeted. The current capital is mainly institutions. The size of public funds is three times that of 2015. The size of private equity and social security funds is much higher than that of 2015. In addition, the scale of foreign investment is also much higher than that of 2015. At the same time, the current A The stock market value has nearly doubled compared to 2015. These combined factors have resulted in turnover exceeding 2015, which is a normal development.
The difference is that the institutional operation is relatively rational, and if the increase is large, it will be sold, and the funds will be transferred to the low-valued sector. This sector seesaw phenomenon prevents the index from rising sharply, and of course it will not plummet.
Therefore, we need to treat the current market with a calm mind, and trillions of transactions may become the norm in the future. The record for the highest daily turnover was May 28, 2015. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets traded 2.37 trillion yuan, which is currently the highest single-day turnover record for A-shares. As the A-share market expands, the highest daily turnover may break this record in the future, such as reaching 3 trillion or close to 3 trillion. If there is a further sharp increase in turnover, the market will rise sharply, and daily turnover will continue to break historical records. Then, we should be vigilant, and the current stable market need not worry too much.
Xinmin Evening News Chief Correspondent Lian Jianming
Editor: Lu Jiahui
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