When Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai were being hit by the typhoon “fireworks”, the A-share market also ushered in “storms and rains”.
On July 26, the stock indexes of the two cities opened lower and moved lower, and fell rapidly during the session.Shanghai IndexAt one time, it fell by more than 3%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell by more than 4%.Growth Enterprise Market IndexAt one time, it fell more than 5% and fell below 3,300 points during the session; near the end of the trading session, the three major stock indexes had narrowed their declines. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.34% to 3,467.44 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.65% to 14,630.85 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.84% to 3371.23 points; the total turnover of the two markets was 1.41 trillion yuan, and the net outflow of northbound funds exceeded 12.8 billion. Yuan.
according toChoiceStatistics show that more than 3,200 stocks fell, and 63 stocks fell by the limit. In terms of sectors, the brewing, education, and pharmaceutical sectors suffered heavy losses, while the military, semiconductor, and UHV sectors bucked the market and rose. Among them, medical biology, leisure services,food and drinkThey fell by 4.54%, 4.78%, and 5.68% respectively.
It is worth noting that, affected by the news of the “double reduction” policy for compulsory education, the A-share and Hong Kong-share education sectors fell sharply. As of the close,Doushen Education、Kingshang shares、Middle public education、Xueda Education、Kevin Education、ONLY EducationWait for the lower limit,All education、Fangzhi TechnologyFell by about 15%,Cod EducationFell more than 12%,Mei Jim、Kaiyuan EducationFell more than 9%.
Why did the stock market plummet across the board and what happened?In this regard, manyfundThe managers expressed their views on the market to the reporter of Economic Observation Network. On the whole, fund managers generally believe that the market has emotional catharsis factors, including concerns about the new crown epidemic, concern about floods, and discussions on the new education industry policies introduced over the weekend. The superposition of various emotions strengthens the risk of funds. mood.
Why the market fell
Today, the broader market fell across the board, education stocks collectively slumped, and high valuation sectors such as liquor and medicine also experienced a major correction.Debon FundAccording to analysis by Zhao Wufan of the Stock Research Department, he believes that there are two main reasons for the overreaction of the market. On the one hand, the market is overly worried about the uncertainty of education reform. Some sectors that were affected by this sentiment in the previous period have all experienced corrections today; On the one hand, the epidemic has repeatedly appeared in many places, and the economic recovery has encountered disturbances.At the same time, policy risks have led to panic outflows of foreign capital. Today, there is a large amount ofCash flowA-shares, the net outflow of northbound funds was 12.802 billion yuan. Due to multiple factors, the market today has oversold conditions.
For the recent market correction,Bosera FundI think there are three main reasons. First, the recent changes in education, Internet and other regulatory policies have brought about sharp fluctuations in the stock prices of China’s concept stocks, which inhibited the risk appetite for A shares; second, the position adjustment of public offering funds in the second quarter showed a demonstration effect, and the adjustment of positions by leading institutions would lead to Follow the example of small and medium-sized institutions; third, after experiencing the previous rise, the dynamic valuations of heavy stocks in some institutions have generally returned to the high level in February this year. The marginal sensitivity to negative information has increased, corresponding to the increased volatility of the money-making effect. Big.
“In general, today’s sharp correction in the market is mainly driven by emotional factors. From a macro perspective, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Liquidity is still beneficial to the market and the downside risks are not large.”Great Wall FundIt is believed that on the news, the main fuse of today’s severe setback in the market is the domino effect caused by the “double reduction” policy in the education industry. On the one hand, if the education and supplementary concept stocks gradually implement the policy requirements in the future, the K12 after-school tutoring era may face the end, the education and training industry may face the difficult choice of business divestiture or transformation, and future development will be choked. On the other hand, the promulgation of the “double reduction” policy also reflects to a certain extent that the service industry may enter an era of strong supervision, which has given rise to market’sfood and drinkSuch as policy risk concerns on the tertiary industry track, pessimistic market sentiment caused a collective depression in the big consumer sector.
The Great Wall Fund also believes that the weakening of the market is superimposedShuijingfangSecond quarterPerformanceThe negative news did not meet expectations, leading to the decline of the liquor index.Previously affected by Fenjiu andWilling to wine industryAffected by performance exceeding expectations, second-tier liquor has led the industry out of a wave of market trends.However, the current capital and market performance are both negative and individualStock baseUnder the unfavorable circumstances, the entire liquor sector may face the risk of a valuation drawdown. In addition, in the retracement of the pharmaceutical sector, chain services fell in the lead, mainly because the market was worried that private healthcare would be the next education industry, and the gold absorption effect of other sectors intensified; secondly, the market as a whole showed a seesaw effect this year, and there was not much behind the active trading. Incremental funds, pharmaceutical short-term valuations are not low, and marginal funds tend to ebb.
Zheshang FundAssistant General Manager Zha Xiaolei also believes that in addition to the impact of the new policies in the education industry, another factor that has caused drastic adjustments is that the valuations of some industries have been at a relatively high level after the market rises in the past two or three years. Holders are relatively concentrated, and are prone to violent fluctuations under negative emotions.
How to see the market outlook
The overall rapid decline of A-shares has inevitably caused investors to worry about the market outlook.
Looking into the second half of the year, Zhao Wufan believes that the current fundamentals of A shares have not undergone major changes, and short-term shocks will not change the long-term positive trend of A shares. And based on past experience, foreign investors will return to the A-share market after the short-term emotional impact dissipates. In terms of sector allocation, it recommends paying attention to sectors and individual stocks with reasonable valuations and strong performance certainty, and cautiously treating sectors that have seen high gains in the previous period. In the next stage, you can continue to focus on corporate profits, policy trends, and the Politburo meeting at the end of the month.
According to the analysis of Great Wall Fund, today’s military industry sector saw a surge in market capital risk aversion. In the medium and long term, the military industry will continue to benefit from the two major trends of the opening of the defense industry system and military-civilian integration, and the release of performance will drive growth. The fundamentals of the military industry in the first half of the year have been verified by the market, and investor confidence has been boosted. In the second half of the year, the industry is expected to enjoy the valuation switch market, and the military industry’s high boom will continue.
For the future, Zha Xiaolei also expressed optimism about the market. “Because the overall market valuation level is still in the lower-middle position in history. Although the market structure is highly differentiated, the valuations and fundamentals of many industries and companies are still matched, or even relatively underestimated.”
Sea Fortis FundManager Fan Tingfang said that recently, the national level has some new policies on the Internet industry and the education industry, which have a greater impact. At this stage, the capital market has actually realized the determination of national policy guidance. Some industries that are not encouraged by the state, or monopolistic giants that have passed the development bonus period, their future prospects need to be reassessed. And those emerging industries that meet the needs of the country’s transformation and upgrading are expected to continue to receive strong policy support. “So we can also see that even in today’s general decline in the market, the semiconductor, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic sectors are relatively resilient.” Fan Tingfang said.
At the same time, Fan Tingfang also pointed out that some people may be more worried about the economy in the second half of the year, but he does not think they need to worry too much. Because based on the current liquidity situation and the guiding direction of national policies, the A-share market is still expected to find structural opportunities in the volatile market in the second half of the year. Although some point events may bring short-term fluctuations in the market, it is recommended that you calm your mind and focus on the long-term.
Based on the analysis of the entire macro level, Boshi Fund also expressed confidence in the future of A shares.Boshi Fund stated that the recently announced JuneCreditCompany fusion,import and exportThe data on trade growth, industry and consumption growth are all better than expected, indicating that the current economic growth rate remains stable and the phenomenon of recovery is also slightly improved. The overall RRR cut policy announced in the previous period slightly exceeded market expectations, but the macro policy The tone still emphasizes “stable and neutral”, the overall liquidity is relatively reasonable and abundant, and inflation expectations are gradually stabilizing. In the future, the A-share market may not have systemic risks or will maintain a turbulent trend, and the structural market may continue. Appropriate attention should be paid to high-performance assets whose performance in the interim report exceeded expectations.
(Source: Economic Observer Network)
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