ROME. It went worse than expected. Only on Saturday did the Confindustria Study Center predict a slowdown of our economy, while the data of the “consensus” on the eve of the hypothesis of zero growth: in reality, according to the preliminary data released by Istat, in the second quarter of the year our economy has engaged the reverse gear: in fact, GDP has fallen by 0.3% and, above all, the fact that one of our most important partners, Germany, has been in recession for months.
«The cyclical variation is the synthesis of a decrease in added value both in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector and in that of industry, while the added value of services recorded a slight increase» explains Istat, pointing out that « on the demand side, there is a negative contribution from the national component (gross of inventories) and a zero contribution from the net foreign component». In short, even exports, one of the traditional engines of the country’s growth, have stopped. We are discounting the slowdown in world trade.
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Against a 0.6% increase in GDP recorded in the first quarter, at this point the variation acquired for 2023 is equal to 0.8%, slightly compared to the value for the first quarter, which was equal to 0.9% .
The European comparison
According to the tables released by Eurostat in July only Sweden (-1.5%), Latvia (-0.6%) and Austria (-0.4%) are worse off than Italy. But we in turn fare worse than Germany (0.0%), France (+0.5%) and Spain (+0.4%). Ireland (+3.3% compared to the previous quarter) and Lithuania (+2.8%) performed best. On an annual basis, growth rates were positive for seven countries, with the highest values observed in Ireland (+2.8%), Portugal (+2.3%) and Spain (+1.8%), the France stands at +0.9%, while Germany is in negative territory with -0.1%.
The reactions
From Istat «bad news!», comments the president of the Consumer Union Massimiliano Dona. «The government, instead of continuing to sing victory for the growth higher than that of other European countries, would do well to worry about this drop, and put in place urgent measures to prevent the reduction from being confirmed also in the third quarter, thus allowing Italy in technical recession». If we don’t enter it, according to the Unc, «it will, in all probability, be due to the recovery of services, thanks to tourism in the summer months, not for nothing, even today it is the only sector to mark a slight increase in added value. In short, if we are saved it will only be thanks to the Bel Paese».
Prices
Positive signals, however, from inflation, which stood at +6% from +6.4% in June, returning to the same level as in April 2022. In July 2023, the national consumer price index for the entire community ( Nic), gross of tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis. Slight slowdown in July in the prices of the so-called ‘shopping cart’ which continues to record double-digit increases: the prices of food, home and personal care products go from +10.5% to +10% on a trend basis, 4%.
The bills in your pocket
According to the Unc, for a couple with two children, inflation at +6% means a blow equal to 1725 euros on an annual basis, of which 838 are used only to meet the 10.9% increases in food and drinks. For a couple with 1 child, the additional expense is equal to 1571 euros, 757 for food and drink. On average, the slap is 1307 euros for a family, 615 for food and non-alcoholic beverages. The primacy goes to large families with more than 3 children with an additional outlay of 1947 euros, over a thousand euros the sting to feed and quench their thirst, 1001 euros.