[The Epoch Times, September 18, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Zhang Yuanzhang reported) The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced the latest interest rate decision on the 22nd. The market believes that the “eagle-style” rate hike will still be maintained. Also concerned about the subsequent impact on economic activities, the US multinational investment bank and financial services company Goldman Sachs recently lowered its forecast for US economic growth in 2023, and the US GDP growth in 2023 will be reduced to 1.1%.
U.S. inflation in August was still higher than market expectations. When the Fed is about to hold its September interest rate decision-making meeting, Goldman Sachs recently raised its forecast for the federal funds rate by 3 yards (75 basis points, and the final interest rate forecast by the end of 2022 is 4%). , to 4.25%.
Higher interest rates have further dampened economic behavior, and the Fed’s path of raising interest rates to cool high inflation has been the focus of economists and investors this year. This path of rate hikes, combined with the recent tightening of financial conditions, means the outlook for growth and jobs will worsen next year, Goldman economists said.
U.S. GDP will grow 1.1% in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs, compared with a previous forecast of 1.5%. The forecast for 2022 remains unchanged at 0%.
As economic activity slows, which will also affect employment, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the unemployment rate to reach around 3.7% by the end of 2022, compared with a previous forecast of 3.6%.
Goldman Sachs sees it rising from 3.8% previously to 4.1% by the end of 2023 and to 4.2% by the end of 2024.
Responsible editor: Yuzhen